The Ledger, every show

“With existing technology and giving it more data and more compute, we can already cure a lot of diseases. We can already cure many of the aspects of aging. We can already build better fusion like reactors and systems. We can already create new materials.”

“We actually evaluated that they work about 10 to a hundred X worse than search ads and you have. Twice the cost, about.”

“And when we do a lot of comparisons to the competition, usually the competition spends much more money on marketing and design and less on accuracy of the technology and accuracy of the answers and even the citations. A lot of folks just Fake their citations a…”

“We realized just like with rag where we had invented rag already, we're doing it at a web scale, but it wasn't yet a term.”

“I do think we are going to hit a sort of logarithmic kind of leveling off off like how much more data will give us that much more reasoning, right?”

“By the time you get that out and it's actually scalable and it can really train it and all the software is ready for it. And I can now go on AWS and spawn up your new hardware, like, Nvidia will also have been a hundred X faster with their latest and greatest …”

“Some of our competitors, half of their citations are Independent, random links that have nothing to do with the sentence that they're behind.”

“We just got deranked in all our sites from Google and saw like a drop right away.”

“Bing and Google copy, you know, what we have launched last late last year with you chat. And you know, they may have worked on it before, like some people, you know, claim, oh, for, I mean, we've also met the prompt engineering in 2018, but like, they've copie…”

“When we invented prompt engineering, we actually did it at Salesforce research when I was chief scientist there.”

“We figured that, I don't know, problem of hallucinations out before anyone else.”

“That was eventually copied, and Bing also has that feature now within Bing.com.”

“Probably at some point, your plumber might get more than your marketer because the marketer can use tools and be way, way more efficient, but the plumber AI is going to take a very long time because None of the plumbing companies are collecting data, having ro…”

“AI is kind of what Calculus did for physics. AI will do for biology in the sense that it'll help us weave back together lots of very complex pieces that build these complex systems that then have certain properties.”

“I think we can basically predict where AI will certainly have superhuman capabilities. And those are all scenarios and all domains where we can either have a simulation and or a verification tool.”

“But I do think hallucinations can be also very helpful for AI when you want it to explore novel kinds of proteins.”

“And as bullish and excited as I am about AI, I'm not a believer in this crazy hard takeoff. I think, yes, things will accelerate, but there are certain things that will just require time because of physics and constraints in the real world, such as like long-t…”

“My hunch is like Singapore or China will probably be more likely to try to use those ideas. Say, hey, we all agree, or we at least make it very clear that this is our objective function. And then, you know, we're going to really try our best to set the various…”

“The few large closed labs, Anthropic and OpenAI, took almost everything they could from the open internet trained a model, but then the Chinese open source companies basically siphoned a lot of that knowledge out of those closed source models by distilling it.”

“That will probably be one of the smallest compute deals that will happen in, in our future.”

“Our system, the sort of first instantiation of this Eureka machine and a very narrow domain can already outperform months and sometimes years of human endeavor on particular problems.”

“We realized eventually the killer app for large language models and complex answers is an enterprise.”

“I think LLM companies, especially just the pure thin infrastructure layer of LLMs are going to look, I think, more and more like telcos in the sense that it's high capex, huge, you know, expenditure to build it, especially if you want to build it from scratch.…”

“That's why I said, if you're in that thin infrastructure layer, and that was an important qualification because OpenAI is a consumer app company.”

“Consumers, once you're really famous and you cross that threshold of just like being well known, being the default for a lot of people, all the other LM apps companies are almost rounding errors to ChatGPT.”

“And so LMs as part of that unbundling wave of Google, LMs will capture whenever you have a more complex question.”

“They had to pay a thousand seat licenses for OpenAI, and then six months later, they realize only six percent are actually using them every week.”

“With AI, every person will become a manager, but most people are not used to managing other people or processes.”

“It's also clear that it probably cost them a 102 hundred million dollars, but it's still incredibly cheaper than billions of dollars that we're told it would take to train these kinds of models.”

“Yes. That is one of, like, several, like, several chapters in my book are about that.”

“I think the problem is that while most people complain about their jobs. It does give them meaning. It does give them meaning to be a valuable part of society and to have earned something that they can then give to their family, to their kids, and so on. And s…”

“I think the biggest problem and biggest worry I have is that the entry level jobs right now are more and more automatable.”

“But if you don't know how to program at all, you're also not going to be as good of a vibe coder.”

“There is very little switching cost. Same is true for LLMs in the consumer world, right? None of them are that amazing yet. None of them do enough personalization yet. Now, where there is a lot of switching costs is if you have company internal data or you hav…”

“We're going to see a correction when companies are trading hundred ADX their ARR and they don't have a real moat and like there's the switching cost is close to zero to go to DeepSeek or something else.”

“In AI, anything you can simulate, AI can solve every problem in that domain.”

“We did this bet and in the bet he has to win. I think it ends in 20, 27. So three things have to be true. We have to have a personal robot that cleans the whole house the way my cleaning team does. And it needs to be purchasable, like for reasonable amounts of…”

“I personally would just, I also just love investing in early stage where you can have thousand X's and so on. I just don't see a thousand X's for those companies.”

“This comes from a lot of organizations that bought 500 thousand plus seats for their product. And then after a few months, they look into how many users are actually using it. And it's like five, 10% in the company actually really use it. And so, you know, the…”

“I think in the next few years, we're going to see more AI agents surfing the web for people than we'll have people surfing the web.”

“That's what's going to happen when intelligence gets cheaper and cheaper. We'll just be all much more efficient. And most of us have to become managers of AI agents doing work for us.”

“On the research side this was in 2018, we finally culminated all my ideas when we invented prompt engineering, and we didn't quite call it prompt engineering, but the basic idea was there, namely that you can prompt a single model with different questions, and…”

“At first, like a coding agent, for instance, right now is actually lifting up the at or below average programmers more and more. Like, if you're a solid programmer, but maybe not the best, like, you can get much more productive with an AI agent that helps you …”

“As an investor, I have shied away from what I call unicorn seed rounds largely because they merge seed stage risk with late stage returns. And if you understand expected value, that's just not a good place to be as an investor.”

“I think a lot of the top models, you can't add multiple orders of magnitude more text to them, because there isn't that much more text around.”

“Once others can go out into the world and an open source, a massive, large language model it's gonna be harder and harder to capture that value.”

“There is no company that has made any significant progress in conscious, self-aware, self-reflective AI. And hence, it's very hard to predict when it will ever happen because we're making no progress towards it.”

“There will never be an AI winter again, the way we've seen in the past. If at all there will be an AI winter, it'll be like a California type winter.”