The Ledger, every show

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks, across all 44 shows. Pick shows below, then mix any filter with any other.

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KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Held up
Wolfe: AI will generate full feature films without actors or crew
“One of our companies, Runway ML, you can, and there's others that you can conjure. Today it's 10 seconds, but tomorrow it'll be two minutes, and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting, no costume design, no set design, no actors, and voices entirely…”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 57:52 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
MORE OR LESS Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: OpenAI has produced six spin-offs valued at tens of billions
“So far with OpenAI, valuation has gone from, like, you know, sub hundred million to trillion and plus, and you've had six diaspora companies that have all achieved, you know, tens of billions of dollars that have spun off of it.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 14, 2026 ▶ 45:38 Special Edition MOL with Josh Wolfe, Rachel Holt, Scott Belsky, Scott Stanford, and Peter Deng. · More or Less Podcast
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Wolfe: US SOCOM drone operations require legal authorization for strike ratios
“In the Pacific region with SOCOM, and there's a drone operator who's flying the drone, there's another drone operator who's piloting the weapon system, and there's two lawyers. So, they're helping the commander who is effectively given, like, a godshot of, you…”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 1:34:26 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Wolfe: 38% of US AI researchers are from China
“In our own country, in the United States, 38% of researchers in AI are from China.”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 1:47:04 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Held up
Wolfe: Venture Returns and LP Cash Distributions Will Slow or Turn Negative
“Eventually the great things that we've seen over the past few years, which are exceptional returns, not just unrealized, but realized and returned and distributed cash to LPs is going to either slow down or reverse and potentially be negative, which is somethi…”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 8:23 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Held up
Wolfe predicts a massive pullback in institutional LP allocations to venture capital
“Private equity generally, of which venture capital is like, you know, the tiny bit that's generally clustered into that ass glass, I think is going to see a huge pullback in at least new allocations, if not the pace of allocations.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 48:26 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Held up
Wolfe: WeWork will face severe downside operating leverage when economic conditions contract
“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 58:29 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
20VC Prediction Held up
Wolfe: The future of AI and machine learning is in GPUs
“The future of AI and machine learning is going to be in GPUs.”
Josh Wolfe May 10, 2017 ▶ 14:17 20VC: The 3 Forms Of Edge A Founder Can Have, Lessons From Being on A Board With Bill Gates & Why There Are A Lot Of Tourist VCs Who Are Going To Lose A Lot Of Money, with Josh Wolfe, Co-Founder @ Lux Capital
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Wolfe: OpenAI Generates Roughly $13B, 70% from $20/Month Subscribers
“Today, roughly, thirteen billion of revenue at OpenAI. 70% of that revenue is from 20 dollar a month paying subscribers like me.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 39:43 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Wolfe: China graduates 50% of all global AI undergrads
“50% of all AI undergrads in the world today are being graduated by China.”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 1:46:58 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
STARTUP IDEAS Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: Kurion technology removed 99% of radiation at Fukushima
“This thing that was just conceived In our New York office ended up removing 99% of the radiation from the Fukushima disaster, particularly around cesium and strontium”
Josh Wolfe Jun 2, 2022 ▶ 46:10 How to Invent and Invest In the Future with Josh Wolfe
STARTUP IDEAS Prediction Held up
Wolfe predicts the digitization of human scent and machine olfaction
“The digitization of human scent is coming. Shazam for smell. The ability to identify a single molecule in a room is coming. The ability, not only a single molecule that has meaning to you. I mean, literally a molecule, a structure actually conveys to you know,…”
Josh Wolfe Jun 2, 2022 ▶ 1:04:25 How to Invent and Invest In the Future with Josh Wolfe
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Didn’t hold up
Wolfe: Varda Will Launch First Space Manufacturing Mission in Late 2022
“Next year, this time, so it's gonna be a Q-three, Q-four, 20, 22, they will launch the first manufacturing thing in space, and that was wheeled into existence.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 51:23 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: Thomas Reardon single-handedly coded Microsoft's Internet Explorer
“Single-handedly codes Internet Explorer, and makes a lot of money, retires, does another company, retires, and then early thirties now.”
Josh Wolfe Jan 22, 2019 ▶ 41:10 #50 Josh Wolfe: Inventing the Future
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Held up
Wolfe: Users will soon control ambient technology using neural micro-gesture wristbands
“What that implies is that you will wear something akin to a bracelet or a wristwatch, and you will be able to gesture like Disney's Sorcerer's Apprentice to flick your fingers to turn on the lights, to swipe like you would swipe in three dimensional, three Rai…”
Josh Wolfe Jan 22, 2019 ▶ 41:55 #50 Josh Wolfe: Inventing the Future
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Contradicted
Thomas Reardon single-handedly coded Internet Explorer and was Bill Gates's right-hand
“While he's at Microsoft, he single-handedly codes Internet Explorer, which we've all used, and he's also Bill's right-hand guy during the entire DOJ Monopoly trial.”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 31:01 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Prediction Didn’t hold up
Wolfe: Major LLM providers will offer enterprise document search within six months
“Why don't we wait six months? Because this is going to be available from all of the major LLM providers today that want to get the enterprise accounts.”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 22:31 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Sakana AI trained an evolutionary model on eight GPUs
“Their latest model Which was based on this evolutionary technique was like eight GPUs, which was wild.”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 23:36 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Wolfe: AI already detects subtle CEO sentiment and linguistic shifts in earnings
“Already, there are AIs that can not only go through Qs and Ks, 10 Qs and 10 Ks, and can listen to quarterly earnings reports and CEOs that are talking at conferences or on podcasts and can get an emotional sentiment, can see where they're varying their languag…”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 44:12 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Wolfe: US share of foreign graduates fell from 23% to 15%
“And we used to attract something like 23% of all foreign graduates here. That's down to 15%.”
Josh Wolfe Mar 4, 2025 ▶ 1:47:13 Josh Wolfe: Human Advantage in the World of AI
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Almost Every Stock in ARK Invest Is in Bear Market
“When you look at, like, ARK Invest as one proxy of this, or the Russell 2000, I think all but four or five names in her portfolio, at Cathie Wood's portfolio, are in bear market territory, somewhere between 20% down and 65 or 70% down.”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 11:13 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Sub-$10M ARR Startups Routinely Received Billion-Dollar Valuations
“Remember, you're investing in companies where the new normal has been that a company with five or seven or eight or sub-ten million ARR, annual recurring revenue, is getting a billion-dollar valuation. We used to look at things where it was like one or two or …”
Josh Wolfe Feb 21, 2022 ▶ 12:54 Josh Wolfe – Caution and Innovation at Lux Capital, Venture is Eating the Investment World 8 (Capital Allocators, EP.236)
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Supported
Wolfe: MIT's Bob Langer created billions in value through spinout companies
“So for example, Bob Langer at MIT is a prodigious output of PhDs who are very commercially minded. This is a guy who has made hundreds of millions of dollars, created billions of dollars of market value in companies, and attracts postdocs that want to be like …”
Josh Wolfe Jan 22, 2019 ▶ 8:21 #50 Josh Wolfe: Inventing the Future
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: Bill Gates only sits on Berkshire, Microsoft, and Kymeta boards
“Which led to this company called Kymeta, which I co-founded with Bill Gates. And I'm in a board room with Bill Gates, and he's on the board of this company. It's the only board he's been on besides Berkshire and Microsoft.”
Josh Wolfe Jan 22, 2019 ▶ 18:11 #50 Josh Wolfe: Inventing the Future
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: Kurion was the only US company selected for the Fukushima cleanup
“This little company became the only US company picked for the cleanup”
Josh Wolfe Jan 22, 2019 ▶ 29:20 #50 Josh Wolfe: Inventing the Future
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Lux-backed Kurion handled Fukushima cleanup and sold to Veolia for $400M
“We became the only U.S. Company pick for the cleanup, and we went from a million to 2040, 8000, 140. We sold that at forty million of EBITDA 10 times to a big French company, Veolia”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 25:21 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Wolfe: Kymeta is the only board Bill Gates joined besides Berkshire and Microsoft
“It's the only company that Bill Was on the board of besides Berkshire Hathaway and Microsoft.”
Josh Wolfe May 10, 2017 ▶ 11:54 20VC: The 3 Forms Of Edge A Founder Can Have, Lessons From Being on A Board With Bill Gates & Why There Are A Lot Of Tourist VCs Who Are Going To Lose A Lot Of Money, with Josh Wolfe, Co-Founder @ Lux Capital
20VC Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Planet operates history's largest Earth-imaging satellite constellation
“They would end up buying Google satellite imagery, which was something Google acquired called Skybox, and they now have the largest constellation of Earth imaging satellites in history up in space.”
Josh Wolfe May 10, 2017 ▶ 12:24 20VC: The 3 Forms Of Edge A Founder Can Have, Lessons From Being on A Board With Bill Gates & Why There Are A Lot Of Tourist VCs Who Are Going To Lose A Lot Of Money, with Josh Wolfe, Co-Founder @ Lux Capital
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Meta acquired CTRL-labs for slightly under $1 billion
“Coincidentally, Meta bought that for a little under a billion dollars, started by this guy Reardon.”
Josh Wolfe Dec 8, 2025 ▶ 48:09 Josh Wolfe & Brett McGurk – Venture, Geopolitics, and the Next Frontier (EP.476)
STARTUP IDEAS Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Illumina originally focused on chemical sensing, not gene sequencing
“Illumina was not focused on gene sequencing when they first started. They were doing like chemical sensing and other kind of random stuff. That was the intersection of like microfluidics that were based on a microchip and biotech and then ultimately genetics.”
Josh Wolfe Jun 2, 2022 ▶ 32:52 How to Invent and Invest In the Future with Josh Wolfe
STARTUP IDEAS Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Larry Bock took 14 of 17 startups public, generating $50B
“This was a guy who had made hundreds of millions of dollars, and had founded 17 companies from scratch, taking 14 of them public, cumulative market cap over fifty billion dollars Illumina, Pharmacopia, Ida, and Athena, NeuroKrin, just incredible, and had the c…”
Josh Wolfe Jun 2, 2022 ▶ 33:36 How to Invent and Invest In the Future with Josh Wolfe
KNOWLEDGE PROJECT Assertion Partly supported
Wolfe: GM acquired Cruise for $1 billion within a year of funding
“Nine months later, or 11 months later, GM buys them for a billion dollars, nominally. A little bit less, actually, but nominally a billion dollars. That would have been 11 X. In under a year.”
Josh Wolfe Jan 22, 2019 ▶ 1:25:28 #50 Josh Wolfe: Inventing the Future
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Wolfe: Carlyle Co-Founder Bill Conway Seeded Lux Capital and Its Management Company
“Bill Conway, who was one of the founders of Carlisle, and he's not really bullish on venture. I mean, Carlisle is, you know, one of the greatest private equity and buy-off funds, But he doesn't love venture capital, but there was something, whether it was the …”
Josh Wolfe Aug 20, 2018 ▶ 14:51 Josh Wolfe – Seeing the Lux (Capital Allocators, EP.65)
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