The Ledger, every show

“On the capital market side, you see hundreds of billions of dollars destroyed of people that play the same game that you did back in 2000 with fiber optic cables.”

“I think Micron is a US company which is going to be more constrained by restrictions that are put on export control, and I think SK being a Korean company is going to be able to skirt those in the same way that NVIDIA has with, you know, distribution to China …”

“Being able to do that is the real gold, and the large language models are effectively, like, over time, I think, going to trend toward zero in a commodity excavator of that data.”

“One of our companies, Runway ML, you can, and there's others that you can conjure. Today it's 10 seconds, but tomorrow it'll be two minutes, and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting, no costume design, no set design, no actors, and voices entirely…”

“I believe that that will be the next Afghanistan, particularly for Europe. I think that you will have Mali pulling France in. You will have Belgium being pulled in, you will have the UK and other EU countries adjacently being pulled in, the US being pulled in,…”

“I think that there are a lot of tourist VCs who are in these domains that are going to lose a lot of money”

“So far with OpenAI, valuation has gone from, like, you know, sub hundred million to trillion and plus, and you've had six diaspora companies that have all achieved, you know, tens of billions of dollars that have spun off of it.”

“The long tail of funds that are subscale, I have predicted that you would see a 50% involuntary exit or extinction rate, that they would go out of business, and why? Because they're under-reserved, they've over-invested, they have too many portfolio companies,…”

“And I believe that at least General Atlantic, General Catalyst, Andreessen, maybe Insight, maybe Lightspeed, go public.”

“I'm of the belief that 50% of your inference and your queries will be on device. They will not be on device going to the cloud. They will be on device. Locally hosted on models that are either etched into the silicon or using flash memory.”

“Today, if you're a scientist, you have to go to a scientific lab, a wet bench, a white lab coat. You're working with pipettes and beakers, centrifuges, shaking tables. All of that is going to be done by robots. Completely automated labs operated in the cloud w…”

“There's another adjacent theme, which I think is also really interesting, which is AI portends the death of APIs. So APIs allow meta with their meta glasses or Ryan to be able to communicate with Uber and, you know, Spotify through the backend, through softwar…”

“I think that you're going to end up doing a lot of inference on device. Meaning, instead of going, ah, to the cloud and typing a query, like, 30 to 50% of your inference may be on an Apple or an Android device.”

“I would suspect that maybe you lose 10 to 30% of the people that you normally would have hired, but the people that are there are still like these 10 X coders, and now they have a machine that's helping them be like 20 to a hundred X.”

“The second that DeepSea comes out, it suddenly accelerated the internal strategic decisions from OpenAI of when are we gonna release models.”

“I think the people that are continuing to develop ever better models, unless they have proprietary data, are going to be sort of screwed.”

“So I'm absolutely convinced. Like, high certitude. I don't know exactly which company will do it. We've invested in some. They haven't worked. We'll invest in more. Hopefully they will. But this directional arrow of progress of the idea, by analogy, of machine…”

“Like that, in 10 or 20 years, people look back and be like, how did we not see that coming? And look at all the jobs that are being created, because every single person is now creating And has, like, six virtual companies.”

“There's something here to watch about the flood of retail money that will go into illiquid alts, private equity in particular, and new vehicles that are formed to be able to provide liquidity because of that. And I think that that's both going to be really int…”

“If there is an AI that is totally trained on my voice, and my likeness, and everything I've ever said, which I have done, that my kids would actually have a dad AI, and maybe they can consult it for questions, or, and is that a good thing, or a bad thing? I do…”

“I deeply believe that Anderil in the next few years will be a 30 to fifty billion dollar publicly traded business doing single-digit mid-billions of revenue with software-like margins that are not like these cost-plus margins, so that is gonna usher in a big w…”

“In the Pacific region with SOCOM, and there's a drone operator who's flying the drone, there's another drone operator who's piloting the weapon system, and there's two lawyers. So, they're helping the commander who is effectively given, like, a godshot of, you…”

“In our own country, in the United States, 38% of researchers in AI are from China.”

“Eventually the great things that we've seen over the past few years, which are exceptional returns, not just unrealized, but realized and returned and distributed cash to LPs is going to either slow down or reverse and potentially be negative, which is somethi…”

“So what I think will tip this, and I would put my highest conviction that this is the cause, is LP indigestion.”

“If you accept just as a store of value the total gold market at 11 trillion dollars, half of that, five and a half trillion dollars, if you just had generational shift where people said, you know what, I prefer this in the same way they prefer Bonobos to Docke…”

“Private equity generally, of which venture capital is like, you know, the tiny bit that's generally clustered into that ass glass, I think is going to see a huge pullback in at least new allocations, if not the pace of allocations.”

“The operating leverage that those businesses, by the way, get on the upside is huge. But once you have this precipitous pruning and these people start disappearing, I think the operating leverage that you get on the downside is going to be really painful. And …”

“In the public markets, companies are going to be sold indiscriminately in the same way that they're being bought indiscriminately. So I think that there is a big structural issue. I think that similar as we looked at vaccines when they were out of favor, today…”

“The future of AI and machine learning is going to be in GPUs.”

“I think that still going back to the first point about habituation, the vast majority of people are just going to continue to use closed labs and trust it more.”

“Today, roughly, thirteen billion of revenue at OpenAI. 70% of that revenue is from 20 dollar a month paying subscribers like me.”

“There will be lots of little devices. They will start with third-party pendants and rings and necklaces, hardware microphones, recording passively, twenty-four-seven every day. The young people will be comfortable with this as digital natives.”

“The Sahel and Maghreb in Africa, which is not an area that a lot of people talk about or think about, that I believe with low probability, super high magnitude import Is going to become the next Afghanistan, that that region in the Sahel, all these coups and c…”

“But interestingly, I actually think that the people whose jobs are, like, most protected in this new domain are blue-collar workers. A robot today can't really fully serve a meal, and they cannot effectively, even though every humanoid robot tries to do foldin…”

“I do think that we will see a return to Active managers that are able to discriminate true fundamentals, in part because I think that the cost of capital is just gonna rise and all the funny money of the past 10 years is, is gonna wash out.”

“And the great human feeling is commiserating about the thing that we experience together, or the memory and laughing hysterically, which I still do with my childhood friends, of this shared moment, and AI will never get that.”

“I think that's possible, 10 or 15 or 20 not doubling.”

“Reshoring. All of these things, you know, tariffs, they're gonna be inflationary, there would be a rising cost of capital.”

“50% of all AI undergrads in the world today are being graduated by China.”

“This thing that was just conceived In our New York office ended up removing 99% of the radiation from the Fukushima disaster, particularly around cesium and strontium”

“The digitization of human scent is coming. Shazam for smell. The ability to identify a single molecule in a room is coming. The ability, not only a single molecule that has meaning to you. I mean, literally a molecule, a structure actually conveys to you know,…”

“I think we are going to learn more about human consciousness as we interrogate the systems and try to understand how much of the modern approaches in an AI are working to sense, make models, make predictions on those models, iterate and learn. And I think that…”

“We had a company that tipped off a fundraise to a large growth investor on a Sunday evening through a board member. On Monday, they met at noon. At one PM, the meeting ended at one, 12 PM. They had a market clearing offer in their inbox and accepted it. That w…”

“Next year, this time, so it's gonna be a Q-three, Q-four, 20, 22, they will launch the first manufacturing thing in space, and that was wheeled into existence.”

“Single-handedly codes Internet Explorer, and makes a lot of money, retires, does another company, retires, and then early thirties now.”

“What that implies is that you will wear something akin to a bracelet or a wristwatch, and you will be able to gesture like Disney's Sorcerer's Apprentice to flick your fingers to turn on the lights, to swipe like you would swipe in three dimensional, three Rai…”

“I believe that within a decade, you will see Architectural structures. You will see product design. You will see components inside of vehicles and industrial products that look way more biological because they were designed, interestingly, by a computer that a…”