The Ledger, every show

“I think the industry could hit a hundred billion ARR by the end of this year, like 45, 50 for open AI, like 35, 40 for anthropic.”

“Intel is literally gonna go bankrupt if they don't have a big cash infusion, or they lay off, like, half the company, right?”

“DRAM will double or triple from here still, because That's how much capacity is required, and they have to steal capacity from somewhere else, and the only way to steal capacity from somewhere else in a capitalist economy is demand destruction via higher prici…”

“There's no reason why Google will have any profit in 27 at all, right, in terms of cash flow. They will just spend every dollar they make On, on AI infrastructure.”

“And when Anthropic says in their funding, like, hey, we're gonna have three hundred billion dollars of revenue by the end of the decade, and it's like, actually I think that number's too low. Because the economic value of what they're gonna create is gonna be …”

“Yeah, I expect in the next few years that the OpenAI and Microsoft probably falls apart too.”

“Current 4.6 Opus or 4.7 Opus to your models a year from now, my spend for the same exact quality of the model would probably be like 70 K. I bet you it'll be a hundred times cheaper.”

“Even if the KMT wins, it's not like TSMC starts disobeying American export restrictions because The way American export restrictions are upheld is that Taiwan utilizes American banking systems, American equipment industries, and so they'll still have to uphold…”

“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”

“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”

“And then you've got data centers now all of a sudden coming online and going from two percent to 10% of the U S grid in just a handful of years.”

“So the U.S. Grid will get to, like, 10% of power by, like, 28, 27, is data centers. For water consumption, it's not even gonna crack one percent. By the end of the decade.”

“The baton got passed from semiconductor shortages in 23 to power and data centers in 24, 25. 26, we're still, we're swinging the pendulum, but it will fully beat semiconductors again in 27, right?”

“In fact, it's the base of everything, so you want to keep having gains, because any gains on pre-training, right, i.e. The model learns a little faster, or the model's a little bit smaller for the same quality, feeds into the next stage, which is this whole po…”

“And my number is closer to, like, it's like four 5500 and that's based on, like, you know, all the research we do on, like, data centers and, like, tracking each individual data center in the supply chains, right?”

“Even by the end of the decade you know, the US will be like, 10% of our power will be AI data centers”

“And they won't.”

“For a long time, OpenAI was charging more per token for the reasoning model, right, O-one and O-three than they were for GPT-Four-O, even though the architecture is, like, basically the same. It's just the weights are different.”

“It's instead being built in Malaysia, and Oracle has over a gigawatt of capacity in Malaysia that ByteDance is gonna take, right?”

“Hyperscalers capex is going to be like five hundred billion dollars this year or something like this.”

“Nebius is gonna make, like, at least six billion dollars of gross profit off of this.”

“The end market of AI is going to be way larger than the end market of semiconductors and equipment.”

“He's gonna have hundreds of billions of dollars of cash on his balance sheet.”

“They launched this thing called CPX, which is a chip made for pre-fill with, you know, prompt processing, creating a KV cache, and also good at, like, video generation and image generation. And that's coming out later this year.”

“You know, you do your inference on one set of chips and you do your training on another set of chips. So like, Anthropic does this.”

“Google actually did this alongside Broadcom you know, and they did it before Nvidia, right? You know, today everyone's freaking out about, or not freaking out, but like everyone's like very excited about Nvidia's Blackwell system, right? It is a rack Of GPUs. …”