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20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: OpenAI will never solve end-to-end enterprise user workflows
“And the thick wrapper is, is like when you've actually solved the user's problem end to end fully in a way that OpenAI never will, you know.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 11:45 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Des Traynor: OpenAI valuation will pass $90B, but Amazon poses risks
“I don't think I would, and the reason, whilst I think they'll pass 90, the areas I'd be wary of is Amazon.”
Des Traynor May 24, 2024 ▶ 7:18 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI will accelerate the death of seat-based SaaS pricing
“I do think separate to all this, SaaS is going to be a bit more usage-based and metered anyway. I think the days of, like, seats above all are starting to fade away. AI is going to accelerate it, but I think generally speaking, people are kind of realizing tha…”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 42:20 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
20VC Prediction Partly held up
Traynor: AI infrastructure will consolidate into 3-4 providers in direct price competition
“There'll probably be three or four big providers is my guest, probably GCP, AWS, maybe open AI directly. And I'm sure Azure, that's how I think that that layer will play out. And they'll end up in direct price competition with each other.”
Des Traynor Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 12:42 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Traynor: Amazon could outright acquire Anthropic to integrate into AWS EC2
“I'd be wary of Amazon. So like I could see Amazon just like Flat up like buying Anthropic and being like, let's just make this part of the EC two cluster.”
Des Traynor Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 29:41 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: OpenAI will eventually reach 'good enough' capability for everyone
“OpenAI will hit some sort of minimum viable kind of what's good enough for everyone.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: The performance gap between OpenAI and competing LLMs is narrowing
“Close and narrowing, and like, it's also a work in progress. Like all of these things are moving targets, right?”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 19:10 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Thin-wrapper AI startups face higher mortality from platform updates
“I think it's reasonable to assume in this massive sea of uncertainty that we're in, you know, like the margins being, the compute being so expensive the margins being so thin, that a higher than normal amount of these startups will die for one of the following…”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 25:43 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI will kill an above-average number of software incumbents
“I also think an above average number of existing incumbents are going to die too, because their world is going to get torn apart by AI.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 27:28 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Speculative enterprise AI budgets will hit zero
“Areas where it's very, how would you say, speculative and open-ended. We thought it would be cool if we could run a little bit of AI to generate ideas for a workshop or whatever, right? They're definitely going to get cut to zero, and they'll, they'll, somebod…”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 34:48 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Traynor: Consumption pricing will replace per-seat SaaS within five years
“I think his point about like consumption pricing outpacing, or like, you know, ultimately taking the place of seed pricing, I think is going to be true. I think a lot of work is going to get handed over to LLMs over the next Five years.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 36:12 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: High-quality AI agents will command human-level service pricing
“When somebody actually does a good job of an AI coach or personal trainer or financial advisor, the person who does it really well will be able to justify pricing it similar to what the human costs because people have already been paying humans for this for a …”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 36:58 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Traynor: Nvidia won't be the sole GPU maker in five years
“I don't think NVIDIA in five years time will be sitting here proud as the only people who can do a GPU.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 38:33 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Google could offer free Android phones funded by intent-layer bidding
“I could totally imagine Google doing a thing where they give away effectively free Android phones, powered by the fact That they now control the intent layer, which is when you say, okay, Google, call me a taxi. Google goes and they get you whatever taxi, whic…”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 47:36 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Des Traynor: AI infrastructure will consolidate into 3-4 price-competing providers
“They'll probably be three or four big providers is my guess. You'll be probably GCP, AWS, maybe OpenAI directly, and I'm sure Azure. That's how I think that layer will play out, and they'll end up in pretty direct price competition with each other.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 53:35 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Incumbents will benefit more from AI than startups
“If you put a gun to my head, I'd say incumbents will probably do better out of AI than like startups thinking they can displace incumbents.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 55:44 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Des Traynor: OpenAI will never build deep vertical industry integrations
“OpenAI is never going to put like five of their engineers going hard on wealth management and like, you know, banking integrations.”
Des Traynor May 24, 2024 ▶ 13:05 Sam Altman, Arthur Mensch and more discuss:Which Startups Are Threatened vs Enabled by OpenAI?|E1156 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Any company enabling Intercom's Fin gets 25% to 30% resolution rate
“On average, I would be confident any business who turns on fin will get at least like 25, 30.”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 46:00 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
20VC Prediction Didn’t hold up
Traynor: OpenAI Will Never Assign Engineers to Deep Vertical Banking Integrations
“However, I think if you find an area where they're not going to go that deep, OpenAI is never going to put like five of their engineers going hard on wealth management and like, you know, banking integrations, you know?”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 14:55 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Traynor: Intercom's AI agent Fin resolves over 50% of support tickets
“And we see staggering results for Fin. Some people are getting, like, very, very high percentage of total support volume resolved With satisfaction, like above 50% of times, right?”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 16:27 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Traynor claims OpenAI is generating $1 billion in annual revenue
“And I think they're doing a billion in revenue or something like that is what I've heard.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 39:18 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Amazon could acquire Anthropic and integrate it into AWS EC2
“I could see Amazon just like flat up like buying Anthropic and being like, let's just make this part of the EC two cluster. And that's just a very easy route to market.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 40:10 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Des Traynor: AI will disrupt long-standing SaaS product strategies
“Like even like all this AI shit's gonna like upend a load of like product strategy advice that has been holding solid for 10 years, right?”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:11:51 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Traynor: HubSpot proves SaaS startups do not need enterprise upmarket focus
“HubSpot have proved exactly that there's massive businesses to be built without ever having to go, like, all the way up market, right?”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:13:19 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Intercom does not need to raise further venture capital
“Intercom is like a series, what's that, like D or whatever company. We don't need to raise, so hence it's not E or F or whatever”
Des Traynor Jul 18, 2022 ▶ 15:11 Des Traynor: How I Founded Intercom; Product Marketing Tips; Feature Creep | 20VC #907 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor predicts broad adoption of natural language input for AI chatbots
“I think you're seeing a bit more people just saying, like, they've gone back to the whole, I will tell you what you need to know, and I'll trust when I enter, you're going to figure it out, and I think that has taken a while, but I think we're going to see a k…”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 17:03 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI chatbot errors usually stem from bad content, not hallucinations
“A lot of the times when Finn gives bad answers, it's not hallucination. It's actually usually just bad content and it's stale content on our customers help centers”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 28:23 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
MAD Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI robots will inevitably handle phone-based customer support
“Like, voice from a point of view of robots answering the phone, and hearing your query, and answering it as best as they can, and if not, failing over to a human voice. I think that's all certainly going to happen. Don't have a stated time frame for it yet.”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 36:18 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Intercom powers 500 million conversations a month
“Summarize every conversation Intercom powers every month. That would be summarizing five hundred million conversations a month.”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 36:59 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Action-capable Siri will transform desktop and iOS interaction models
“I think what they'll win is this idea of Siri might finally become useful. Siri is currently not useful because it doesn't really have enough smarts, but I think when Siri can be as conversational as ChatGPT and can take actions on the device, it'll change the…”
Des Traynor Nov 24, 2023 ▶ 22:50 The Ultimate AI Roundtable: What Happens Now in AI, Why Google are Vulnerable | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI transition will trigger major market share shifts and clear losers
“There's gonna be a lot of winners and losers, and there's gonna be a lot of market share up for grabs, and people are gonna be looking for who's got the good shit.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 0:17 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Large language models are not yet equal or commoditized
“And we actually torture test all of the LLMs. It's not yet the case that they're all equal.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 16:53 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI adopters keep human seats to boost support quality
“What we're seeing a lot is, like, businesses are choosing to keep the seats and keep the people, and, like, just turn the dial on quality, so they just get really good at support.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 35:43 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Held up
Traynor predicts OpenAI valuation will surpass $90 billion
“I think on the whole, I'd make the bet that they'll pass 90 in value.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 39:28 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: AI will expand Adobe's market beyond creative professionals
“They could have a really significant expansion of people who could use Adobe software far beyond just creative geniuses.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 52:07 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Intercom's early blog prioritized general audience over buyer persona
“I think probably I prioritized growing an audience for the blog, overgrowing the right audience for the blog. And the net net is that we have a large audience for the blog. People who are like design or into product or even into engineering. People are maybe i…”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:07:57 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Second-time founders hire slower to avoid eventual layoffs
“I would bet your second time founders don't they hire slower is my guess because I just think it's an easy way to like burn up opportunity and ultimately lead yourself in a position where you might have to riff.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:20:46 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
MAD Assertion Supported
Traynor: GPT-4 crossed the hallucination threshold required for customer support bots
“So Finn's built on GPT-IV, by the way, we've, we tried, we wanted to build on a three, 3.5, but it didn't, it's still, I remember back when we used to talk about hallucinations, like four was the sort of the perceptual change for us in terms of trust and relia…”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 18:40 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
MAD Assertion Not checkable as stated
Intercom evaluates AI models using a benchmark suite of thousands of scenarios
“We have a torture test of like thousands of questions and scenarios that we run any given model through.”
Des Traynor Feb 29, 2024 ▶ 24:32 How Intercom transitioned to being AI-first | Des Traynor, Co-Founder of Intercom
20VC Assertion Supported
Traynor: I Wrote 90 to 95 of Intercom's First 100 Blog Posts
“I wrote maybe, like, some, like, 90, or 95 of the first 100 blog posts on Intercom”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 1:28:23 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Y COMBINATOR Assertion Not checkable as stated
Intercom's blog is the company's dominant source of inbound traffic
“And it's one of our, you know, it is our dominant traffic source, but we, you know, that wasn't true for the first 100 posts.”
Des Traynor Dec 13, 2017 ▶ 8:09 Be Wary of Solving a Small, Rare Problem - Des Traynor of Intercom · Y Combinator
Y COMBINATOR Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tailoring website onboarding by persona doubled or tripled Intercom's conversion rate
“Over the years of experimentation, we've really doubled or trebled our actual conversion rate through things like that.”
Des Traynor Dec 13, 2017 ▶ 59:39 Be Wary of Solving a Small, Rare Problem - Des Traynor of Intercom · Y Combinator
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traynor: Exceptional had more customers on one SF street than all Ireland
“There was a single street in San Francisco where we had more customers than we did in all of Ireland, to give you an example of the gap.”
Des Traynor Nov 15, 2023 ▶ 3:26 Des Traynor: How to Survive and Thrive in a World of OpenAI | E1082 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Y COMBINATOR Assertion Supported
Des Traynor wrote roughly 93 of Intercom's first 100 blog posts
“I wrote, I think I wrote 93 of the first 100 posts.”
Des Traynor Dec 13, 2017 ▶ 6:38 Be Wary of Solving a Small, Rare Problem - Des Traynor of Intercom · Y Combinator
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