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20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will collapse product cycles by skipping documentation for prototyping
“And I think AI completely collapses that cycle and accelerates a lot of the upfront up funnel work where, where again, you can just do, you can build a prototype and you can show that to customers and like the PM and the designer might just work collaborativel…”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 9:06 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Top 5% of tech talent gains value in the AI era
“The top one percent, the top five percent of all of the skill sets get a lot more valuable and the median gets a lot less valuable.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 38:27 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: AI will cause engineering, product, and design roles to converge
“And I think we will see that we'll see a collapsing or converging of the end product design triad. I think they will never be the same, but I think everything will be pulled in tighter. So I think all of that will change.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 6:29 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Chinese mobile app design favors bold visuals over Western minimalism
“And the reality is you go to China and there's, it's different, right? It's not as like the sleek, elegant design isn't where design sort of falls into the background isn't as prominent and it's a lot more, you know, color and red and big buttons and that type…”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 3:30 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Western and Asian mobile app design styles are converging
“I think there's absolutely a convergence. I think probably the influence is a little bit more being pulled towards us, but the reality is like apps like, you know, TikTok, there's a lot of things going on, things flying around, scrolling, all that stuff. Like …”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 3:58 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: More PMs will start development in prototyping than design tools
“I think maybe, maybe the generalized version of that is do more PM start in prototyping land than they do in strictly design land? And I think the answer to that is yes.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 7:50 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Breaking organizational silos with AI will be harder than expected
“I think the breaking down of silos, the use of AI tools to break down the silos between the functions will be more challenging than a lot of people are giving it credit to.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 46:09 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
Uber's surge pricing was manually managed by city GMs until 2013
“Surge pricing for actually quite some times, probably all of 2012, certainly, 2013, probably, I don't know when we necessarily switched was very much a human in the loop system or a very manual system where GMs in every city would control basically the paramet…”
Brian Tolkin Aug 4, 2024 ▶ 10:25 Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Early Uber ignored support efficiency to focus entirely on core matching
“If you think about the early Uber network from the simplest form, you've got A rider and a driver, and you need to connect them, price the transaction, and issue some receipts, probably, you know, and collect payment. So it's like, okay, do we do that really w…”
Brian Tolkin Aug 4, 2024 ▶ 58:24 Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
20VC Assertion Contradicted
Tolkin: UberPool launched with post-hoc pricing before upfront pricing was built
“When we first launched, it was variable pricing, depending on whether you matched or not. You open the Uber app, you say, this is where I'm going, and it was just like, okay, and then based on minutes and miles, the cost would post hoc calculate until we built…”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 0:05 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Open
Tolkin: Uber Eats was created as an entirely separate app and org
“In, you know, Uber's case, even more extreme is you do what Uber Eats was, which was like a totally separate app, a totally separate org and totally separate, separate everything.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 14:53 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
20VC Assertion Supported
Brian Tolkin: Opendoor's variations of a mortgage product failed
“Opendoor's had different variations of, you know, a mortgage product that, that didn't succeed.”
Brian Tolkin Feb 7, 2025 ▶ 20:59 Brian Tolkin, Head of Product @Opendoor: How to Hire the Best Product Teams | E1257 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
UberX was named after a temporary placeholder in early financial models
“Uber, Uber X this product in the early days was going to be all hybrid and had a bunch of different potential names. I was not personally driving this. This was someone else on the operations team, but they dealt the model for What this product could be, and t…”
Brian Tolkin Aug 4, 2024 ▶ 12:32 Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
Tolkin: Opendoor halted home purchases for months in 2020 to virtualize operations
“We actually turned off the core business and we stopped buying homes for a few months. Hey, we can't go in and we don't know if anyone's going to be buying any homes. And so, you know, what do we do? And we took those few months and then came out the other sid…”
Brian Tolkin Aug 4, 2024 ▶ 16:16 Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tolkin: Early Uber concentrated engineering on dispatch and pricing
“Which is why most of the engineering effort for Uber was on the dispatching system and the pricing system. That's just where the leverage was at the time, given, given the scarcity of resources.”
Brian Tolkin Aug 4, 2024 ▶ 19:01 Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Not checkable as stated
Early UberBlack drivers had two-hour, individual, in-person onboarding sessions
“In the early days is at small scale actually back when it was the Uber black drivers, every driver was individually onboarded in like a 90 minute to a two hour in person in the office onboarding with deep setting of expectations.”
Brian Tolkin Aug 4, 2024 ▶ 21:26 Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
LENNY'S PODCAST Assertion Supported
Uber's viral stunts like puppies on-demand originated from decentralized city teams
“That was, by the way a example of like fully distributed. The benefit of having those early petri dishes someone a local marketing manager is like, Hey, this would be fun. It would be really fun and the platform can support it. And those promotions were fantas…”
Brian Tolkin Aug 4, 2024 ▶ 1:03:15 Lessons from scaling Uber and Opendoor | Brian Tolkin (Head of Product at Opendoor, ex-Uber)
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