The Ledger, every show

“I think the odds that, that, you know, The US with two, you know, proprietary models can stay ahead of China with 10 open source ones is very low.”

“They've gone back through, and looked at excess deaths at a number of different countries, and lockdowns achieved nothing.”

“At least for the cohorts that are old enough, the churn's about 65% annually, so they're only 35% retaining, which Sachs had hinted at on All In, and maybe the reason that I think Sam at one point said he didn't really see the twenty-dollar thing as his future…”

“Same, same exact conclusion, which is rest of the world ends up running on Chinese models. If they're able to succeed at what you just said.”

“No one's funding more lobbyists begging for AI regulation than Anthropic themselves.”

“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”

“If we move to a world where, you know, the answer to getting the everyday consumer into high growth tech is to put their, you know, endowments, for one case, IRAs into, you know, these venture funds that are charging two and 20. I just think there's more obfus…”

“In the 20 cases where you have this super high multiplier 55% of the cases are just two of the judges, and there's something else that, that I learned in reading this, which I didn't know, but the chancellor who is one of the two, gets to pick who the cases ar…”

“I think there's zero chance that you're going to stop China or somehow like I even, I use the phrase increase the gap.”

“But any one of these decisions, and certainly the combination of them, could lead to escalation. It could go as far as leading to a hot war.”

“I see a very similar vein in AI, where people, especially people that believe in AGI and ASI and magical AI, think that it's just gonna explode, and then whoever controls this uncontrollable force will control the globe. In a zero-sum way. And I just, I don't …”

“But I think if you, I think I can imagine that if you just poke China enough, if you keep poking and you keep poking and you keep raising the constraints, you increase the odds that they make a run at Taiwan.”

“Tariffs and protectionism will only protect American industry for a very short window. It's actually going to deny them the competition they need to get their together.”

“Anthropic and their investors like Eric Schmidt have been some of the people that have been encouraging, you know, more and more AI oversight and AI regulation and trying to make it such that open source AI would not be legal.”

“And by the way, you talk, if 80% of the zombie corns are never going to get out or are going to get out at reduced prices, I'm telling you flat out, those are being held on the large endowments, you know, as LPs at unrealistically high prices across the board.”

“The leaders with their closed source AI models are spending more money than any startups ever spent. You know, in lobbying efforts, and they're drafting the language that ends up in the EU doctrine”

“I went into one of these credit card survey things, and I looked at OpenAI, and assuming that people don't pay for the API with a credit card, so the credit card pool just represents, and I compared it to a company where I knew the revenue it would imply that …”

“And pulling up the, these tariffs to help protect our companies won't make them stronger. It'll make them weaker by not exposing them to the reality on the field.”

“That staying private forever has consequences. And unfortunately, the way it'll show up is some people will have kept some private marks in their very large positions and very large portfolios for a very long time, and then they'll be corrected all at once.”

“So there's a lot of different elements that, that make me think that the open source component models, Are gonna be way more successful in the enterprise, and it's a really tough thing to compete with.”

“Some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling, you know, regulators to try and disable it.”

“Now, he works for the FDA, and he runs the group that oversees which antigen test gets approved. I know this because he would write scathing letters to the ones he rejected that you can also look up online. Now, guess what? You're not going to be surprised. Fi…”

“I think this whole notion that you're going to disrupt and fundamentally take over the business has just been proven false over and over again. AngelList is awesome, but it's not 20% of the industry, you know. Andreessen said, we're going to completely, you kn…”

“I think that we can't get past COVID With Trump, because the TDSers are so convinced that it has to be problematic”

“I would say it's kind of a quiet secret, just because I haven't read it on the front page of the journal, that, you know, especially from a breadth standpoint, like a volume, the companies are using these models all over Silicon Valley.”

“Like, I, at this point, I think stable coins will get there faster than the government will be able to do it.”

“Some people have even highlighted the fact that, you know, QQQ has probably outperformed 80 or 90% of venture funds.”

“I think it's impossible to go with a hundred percent automated solution because the economics don't work well. And so I think like some of the other examples that were given ATMs and whatnot, I think the use of non-ownership cars is going to go way up, so it's…”

“Do you think there'll be a new age CRM built around AI that won't, that'll start from zero Code, and like, and zero, and will be better than salesforce.com, and it won't evolve from all those fields, but it'll evolve in a different way. A hundred percent, and …”

“If we get super heavy on U.S. Regulation, you may find there's a fence around the U.S. And China serves the rest of the world.”

“I think what this does, this overall situation is First of all, I think it's driven by competition at this point. And like the first step into the gray zone was way back at the beginning. And so now I think we're fairly pregnant with it. So I think it's a comp…”

“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.”

“If we implement 50 different state Rules that these companies have to jump through and companies that are competitors that are competing in the broader world don't have any of them. There is zero chance. That's not going to create mud and slow down the U S pla…”

“Because of automation, the entire global, you know, potential for car manufacturing in Five or 10 years from now could be like 400 K total.”

“While people are saying that, that the Waymos should be worth a hundred and seventy billion inside of Google, you can buy shares of Baidu for zero enterprise value. It's a thirty billion market cap, thirty billion in cash from the books.”

“Now your consumers don't have access to those price points, and so you're buying inferior goods at inflated prices, and that's going to lead to inflation and prosperity and standard of living levels dropping in the US.”

“On the 24 members of the select committee for the CCP, and I think all but four of them have never been to China. And the ones that went, it was seven years ago.”

“Now you have the provinces entering the investment space, which is an uncomfortable reality for some of the VCs. They're asked, I hear they're asking for terms that you and I would consider non-starters, you know and so that's, it's all a little bit messy.”

“You've seen these other charts where like 50% Of the AI researchers in America are Chinese”

“I just think you're gonna see, just like you saw Kimmy and Zipu pop up. I wouldn't be shocked if you see other new entrants pop up that are trying to be like sanctioned or, you know, cleaned, you know, use Red Hat as an example, Sonny version of these things, …”

“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”

“Because of the amount of venture capital out there companies are not pricing the cost. Like, no one, none of the model companies, I don't think anyone, even in the verticals, like, no one's pricing the cost, because they're pricing to take market share.”

“OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. They were paying them ten million a year, you know, maybe smaller than what you were talking about, but they were doing it.”

“You never had a full correction here because AI came along and everyone got so excited.”

“I think Josh and the team at thrive have been leading. They're not the only one, but they've been leading the way here where you go at companies that were already on the list to go public that the journal was talking about. They're going to go public next year…”

“I had my friend Jay Ritter rerun the data. Is there, you know, up like 25, 26% underpricing. You add in the seven percent fee, and you're like a 33% cost of capital.”

“And I lived it in the Uber lift situation, but we're going to have that type of capital battle in every category under the sun.”

“And so that level of competition, if it leads to four deep pocketed, all open products is going to be ultra powerful. And we've already learned that these models can train each other and help each other get better. So if you have four open ones that can all tr…”