The Ledger, every show

“And so it does sort of seem to me that like, if the chatbot isn't the UX and it needs to be apps and the model companies aren't going to build that. And the models themselves are basically commodities, as, at least as you can see them as users, then why would …”

“And the problem is that as far as we can see, there is no winner takes all effect or network effect in a foundation model.”

“You're not going to wear a headset, no matter how light and cheap it is, all day outdoors. I would not have worn it walking here, even if it weighed a hundred grams and had completely perfect pass-through. Therefore, it can't replace your phone. Therefore, we …”

“It's also going to happen to porn. It's just going to demolish the porn industry. Because again, there's vast amounts of training data.”

“And indeed the whole problem I had with the whole concept of AI safety and AI ethics was like, this stuff is all fundamentally open source. So aren't five companies that can do this. Anybody will be able to do this. So you're not going to be able to sit and wr…”

“Basically she claimed Amazon was losing money, which was This wasn't true. Or she claimed Amazon was selling below cost, which wasn't true.”

“The vast majority of the decisions are not the lab leak theory from China or Hunter Biden's laptop. They're not things where people disagree. They are, you know, things where literally everybody who thinks content moderation is bad would look at that and go, o…”

“I'm afraid I am now deeply on the sort of, okay, I don't think VR is going to work except as, I mean, the school of thought that says I don't think VR is working except as a subset of games. Now clearly there's a bunch of people who think that's just because t…”

“China is going to have the same GDP per capita as America, more or less, at some point in the next couple of decades.”

“Who is it that's going to kill the native app? It's going to be Apple. Apple is the company.”

“This will be more software, and people will use this to make tools the way they did with no code, and the way they did with Excel, and the way they did with all those previous things, but it doesn't actually fundamentally change the dynamic. It just shifts tho…”

“And meanwhile, we sort of know that you have positive gross margins on inference alone of sort of 40, 50%, but you've got the cost of building the next model, and you don't know where the cost The cost will move, or the cost of the next model will move, and yo…”

“Like anyone who's got a couple of billion dollars can make a foundation model which is what DeepSeq showed us as well.”

“If the frontier slows down, then this stuff is definitely a commodity.”

“And the paradox is like right now they can name their price, but that isn't where we're going to be in five years. You can argue about how quickly the infrastructure gets built out and how fast the GPUs arrive, blah, blah, blah, blah. Fine. But that's a supply…”

“We can't spend 10 trillion dollars a year on our AI infrastructure, because there isn't 10 trillion dollars a year there to spend on it.”

“We don't see a way that consumers will use this daily rather than weekly with the technology we have right now.”

“Over the next couple of years, we've got like a trillion or two trillion dollars of capex coming down the pipe, and the models get a hundred x, 200 x, if it's more efficient every year.”

“You're going to have, pick a number, three to six companies making a frontier model. Spending, no one knows, no one honest knows, like something between two hundred billion dollars and two trillion dollars a year on building these models.”

“What does this do to software, and the answer is, more software, like, way more software. I mean, all software companies exist to solve problems created by other software companies, and that was the joke in security, like, All security software exists to solve…”

“Are the model companies going to have come some kind of, you know, oligopolistic power over the tech industry, or is this going to be commodity infrastructure with, The value being somewhere else to which I think the answer is it's commodity infrastructure, bu…”

“This year, people outside of those labs will spend, clearly will spend something in the order of hundred, hundred and fifty billion dollars to use AI coding. Just to use AI coding. And that's not AI people spending money from NVIDIA. That's real money. And tha…”

“Like, no, people are not going to vibe code to their own stripe, but that's kind of a straw man. Like it's, I'd say it's a straw man, except there are people who say this, but only idiots.”

“So I know people aren't going to tear out SAP and replace it with X, Y, Z. Maybe in five, in like three, five, 10 years, yes, that whole estate will look radically different. And all those jobs will have changed, but it will take, you know, two, three, four, f…”

“Even if like the model stopped, you're getting better tomorrow. If this is it, and we hit a brick wall tomorrow, this is an incredibly useful technology that's going to change the world and get rolled out over the next 10 years.”

“You've got nine hundred million weekly active users, but most of them are not using it every day and can't think of anything to do with it. And only five percent of them are paying for it.”

“So it seems quite likely that all of that will settle out at some point with some kind of oligopoly, where like the laws of gravity and the laws of financial gravity kick in, and while this is the amount of money that the revenue that you can get, and this is …”

“At the moment, they don't. At the moment, the companies all say, well, indeed, we don't train, we don't use your data to make the models better, partly because the amount of user data involved isn't enough to make the, relative to the broader scale of the trai…”

“In the end, A, it's going to be very hard for particularly OpenAI to, for their data center to be better than everybody else's or cheaper or more efficient than anybody else's.”

“Well, deterministically, very new, very, very big, very, very exciting, world-changing things tend to lead to bubbles. And you, I don't think anybody would dispute that you can see some bubbly behavior now, and, you know, you can argue about what kind of bubbl…”

“OpenAI launched Deep Research. Their whole marketing case is it goes off and collects data about the mobile market. I used to be a mobile analyst. The numbers are all wrong. Their use case of look how useful this is, their numbers are wrong.”

“It's basically, the only consumer, Claude has basically no consumer usage, even though on the benchmark score it's the same. And then it's ChatGPT, and then halfway down the chart, it's Meta and Google.”

“Am I going to buy the one that's a 10th of the price and just use the LLM on it? No, because I'll still want the good camera and this good screen and the good battery life.”

“There's going to be anybody who can spend a couple of hundred, you know, can spend a couple of billion dollars can have a frontier model.”

“Will we have small models running on devices? No, because the small models, the capabilities are moving too fast for the small models to shrink the small model onto the device.”

“These companies will collectively spend something over four hundred billion dollars building infrastructure.”

“The Sora, the app platform, the browser, it's quite more than likely that none of those will work.”

“What actually happens is, once it starts happening, Kodak go all in on digital cameras. At one point, they were the best-selling digital camera vendor in the USA, and if you look at their annual ports at the time, they think this is going to be great, because …”

“Go look at App Store ranking, or Google Trends, or usage data of any kind that you can get, and you see that basically it's ChatGPT, and then none of the others are more than five percent of that.”

“Use of all of these AI assistants is still tiny compared to Google. And there is this sort of bubble talk in the valley that, oh my god, no one uses Google anymore, which is just not true unless you're in the valley.”

“The thing that's become very clear, if it wasn't clear a year ago, is that the models themselves are sort of commodities in that, you know, there's half a dozen people who have a state-of-the-art model.”

“Then the interns typed the number in wrong. Like, it was literally the wrong percentage. It was like, 65, 35, instead of 35, 65.”

“Are you telling me this is going up to the point that I'm going to be able to use deep research and the numbers will all be right, and I'll know that they're all right? Because I don't think we're on a path to that. Or at least I don't think we know that we're…”

“We don't have a breakout, there's no standalone breakout consumer app. There's no one, there's no, there's all these, there's, there are all these enterprise SaaS stuff. There is not really a consumer equivalent. There aren't hundreds of consumer apps using th…”

“Yes, all of the dumerism's gone away.”

“Google is paying a revenue share of 25 to 35% of the revenue they get from each search back to the device, and that was twenty-five billion dollars last year.”

“The court can't make Apple put a choice screen in Safari. Like, Apple isn't in court. Like, they haven't been convicted of anything.”

“It's much more likely, I think, that Apple will shift questions from ChatGPT to its own foundation model than it would shift questions from Google to its own general search engine, I think.”