Benedict Evans, technology analyst, shares the results of analyzing OpenAI's marketing example for Deep Research regarding mobile phone adoption in Japan.
Opinion
Evans: OpenAI Product Chief Kevin Weil is building a thin GPT wrapper
“Kevin Wheel is building a thin GPT wrapper. I mean, I love Kevin, but like, that's his job, is to build a thin GPG wrapper.”
Insight
Evans: AI scientists possess no special expertise on global geopolitical threats
“One of the sort of fallacies here is a sort of an appeal to authority, which is, you know, well, that person is an AI scientist, so they must know if this is a threat to world peace. No, they don't. They're an AI scientist. They don't know anything more about,…”
Opinion
Evans: Elon Musk's autonomy and humanoid demos are fake
“It's bullshit. Yeah, but it's not a real demo. It's not working.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: VR headsets will not replace smartphones as primary computing platforms
“You're not going to wear a headset, no matter how light and cheap it is, all day outdoors. I would not have worn it walking here, even if it weighed a hundred grams and had completely perfect pass-through. Therefore, it can't replace your phone. Therefore, we …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: AI foundation models lack winner-takes-all network effects
“And the problem is that as far as we can see, there is no winner takes all effect or network effect in a foundation model.”
Opinion
Evans: OpenAI has commodity tech and no differentiation but massive mindshare
“If you're Sam Altman, you've got a commodity technology. You've got, you're competing with people who have giant legacy cash flows. You don't have your own infrastructure. Don't really have any differentiation, but you've got massive mindshare.”