The Ledger, every show

“I think that the lay person will be as good as a what a senior software engineer that works at Google is today. So I think that's happening very soon.”

“Being canceled is a choice. You can choose to get canceled and retreat from the public eye, but I think if you're still out there, at some point, honestly, the haters kind of give up.”

“The only agents that work are software agents, marketing agents, sales agents, all that haven't really worked very well.”

“They don't need to learn how to code. They need to learn how to create. They need to learn how to build.”

“And we're, you know, we're approaching a certain plateau in how good coding models could get.”

“I don't think there's a moral issue per se. Like, I don't think they're using slave labor or anything like that to do that. I would have a security issue, especially since we have enterprise customers that, that depend on us for sensitive data and things like …”

“I would venture to say, like, maybe the US government should start a consortium of companies that are, like, creating the best open source, national open source model so that the market stays competitive.”

“I think for all intents and purposes, IDEs are dead. I think the, you know, the limp along because again, some engineers just love that, that control, but there's no future in them and that there's no one's going to be asking for like the latest feature of lik…”

“Like, you know, I don't think you, most people who want to make things with software and computers don't need to learn how to code. It's going to be a huge cost on them. It's going to take a lot of time, but instead just jump into making things.”

“So my criticism of the idea of like AGI, 20, 27, you know, that paper that I think it's called Alexander or someone else wrote and then and the situational awareness and all this hype papers that are not really science. They're just vibe.”

“I don't think LLMs as they can understand are on, on the way to AGI and my definition for AGI is I think the old school RL definition, which is a machine that can go into any environment and learn efficiently in the same way that a human could go into you can …”

“I, I'm kind of bearish on, on, on true AGI breakthrough because what we built is so useful and economically valuable.”

“My prediction is that all application software will go to zero. In other words, software will be dirt cheap, that no one will be making money on the traditional type of SaaS software.”

“Obviously domain expertise is still important, But it's not as important as it used to be. It's exponentially less important.”

“They've been able to make, create a lead that hasn't been bridged by the other labs. Gemini is getting there on the agentic stuff, but I would say OpenAI kind of lagged behind.”

“XAI is an amazing team. And they, they've been able to achieve so much in so little time, but it's also well known in the industry that they're computer inefficient. They're so compute rich that, that they're throwing computer the other problem in many ways.”

“If they're gonna compete by undercutting everyone on price, they're gonna destroy the ecosystem.”

“Whomever reaches AGI first, they're not going to go into intelligence explosion and just like suddenly, you know, super intelligence gets born. People, you know, other labs will catch up really quickly. And then, you know, there's going to be a lot of models. …”

“We have these technologies that are, and the market around it that, that is bootstrapped to make us addicted because they're so, so much more enticing and low effort than the reality that we know and experience day to day. And I think that, that is a huge dang…”

“You know, a lot of companies pay tens of thousands of dollars for software. You can generate a replica for five dollars, literally.”

“Meta has this asset that's spitting out a ton of cash. Which is Instagram, Facebook, their ads, kind of networks. But it's in a way a dying asset in many ways. It's a very competitive at some point it's going to get fully disrupted. AI is going in. It's alread…”

“GPT, ChatGPT, Cod, all of them, are simply machines that are trained to regurgitate all the materials they've read online, right? They're amazing machines, they can do programming, all that stuff, but they are a function of their data. You know, like you say…”

“So there's a lot of, I think, vertical, niche-specific SaaS tools that are generatable very easily, even with today's technology, let alone like a year from now, I think you'll be able to kind of generate them, especially on a platform like Replit, which gives…”

“So I think if you're starting a SaaS business today, you want to go against the Silicon Valley dogma of focus. You want to build a Chinese style company, which is I think what Rippling is doing.”

“I said, no, because we want to bet on something like Vite that is open, like community builds and the way Next.js has been trending is that it's optimized for Vercel.”

“So all the stuff that we built around coding AI, I don't think it matters. What really matters is being able to chat with an agent and get an application on the other end.”

“As, you know, non-professional software engineers are able to build their own software I think that the demand for the, you know, plethora of SaaS that we have today will also go down, and that will reduce, because you'll be able to generate software on the fl…”

“So I think I think the population of software engineering will probably be constant and not grow all that much.”

“But I could imagine like whatever, five years from now someone running, you know, a billion dollar company with zero employees, where it's like the support is handled by AI. The development is handled by AI.”

“Yes, and it is unfortunate, and I think it is the results of Some decadence in the culture. I think the, there's a feeling that life is, is about sort of pleasure and sort of hedonistic pursuits. Whereas I think sort of cultures of past, even, you know, 2020 c…”

“One good engineer in 10 years would be as productive as a hundred engineers today.”

“Right now they're like, not very transparent. They use it like every growth hack. It's like a very slimy app in that way.”

“I think Bitcoin is the future reserve currency of the world.”

“So with software engineering becoming more accessible because of AI, I do think we're going to get a lot more developers. I think we're going to get way, way more developed, probably 10 X. So right now there's like thirty million developers in the world. There…”

“And the way I see, so the developer market evolving to accommodate this new technology Is that there's going to be this bit of a bimodal distribution. So bimodal distribution, meaning there's no middle end, there's a large tail on both sides, right? So the mid…”

“And so you're gonna have maybe fewer of those sort of low level, 10 X engineers, but they're gonna be a thousand X engineers. And so maybe a single company would need two or three Like elite engineers, and then maybe dozens of front end engineers kind of build…”

“The fundamental observation is that full-time employment is a bug. It's not a feature of the market. The reason why full-time employment exists is because the transaction cost of doing something is really high.”

“I think a lot of what's called AI alignment today is not really aligning with what the average human being wants. It's aligning with like what the sort of Silicon Valley average sensibility is, which I don't think it's good.”

“Anyone's talking about safety, they probably want something bad for you. And so that, that would be my bias is that safety is bad or at least when they want to impose something in the, Under the guise of safety, I would be super skeptical.”

“And I think if you build a company that's successful right out of the gate commercially, like you might not need to do all of that, but if you're, Trying to meme a dream into reality. I think you have to play that game.”

“They actually had a lot of trouble fundraising in Silicon Valley. They had to kind of go to Saudi and all of that”

“In reality, actually, Reply users were like six months ahead of everyone else, even people in the labs, because when we launch these agents, a lot of times we get researchers messaging us, it's like, oh, we didn't know Claude was capable of running for, you kn…”

“I actually think engineers are laggards. Not all engineers, but like a lot of engineers are because they're kind of tied to their workflows.”

“I think we've already crossed a threshold. Yeah. For which the context links Is larger than any context that human can have. Right. And I think that's huge because, I mean, just think back two years ago we had 16 K context link. Right now we have a one million…”

“We actually think ours is much better than Claude and many others on the market.”

“Agents really like file systems. They like them better than SQL. They're really trained on doing grep and doing kind of search in the Unix command line.”

“We have an agent internally at Replit that is constantly evolving Replit agent. What it does every night, it will look at all the traces of everyone that's interacting with Replit, analyzes them, finds, you know, things that are broken, sentiment issues, error…”

“I think every company will have an Oracle internally, especially once we get to, like, the one billion contact link, and you put all the contacts of the company inside there, and the CEO can go to the Oracle, like, oh, Oracle, tell me how do I run this company…”