The Ledger, every show

“Paris is you know, they have all this spare power. One of the funny things is like, they're like, oh, okay, let's build a bunch of data centers. But then Spain, Italy, Belgium the Netherlands and Germany All freaked out because it's like, oh wait, all this spa…”

“The BLS has this entire Bureau of Labor Statistics has this entire, like, set of, like, 2000 tasks, And so he did that with AI, which ones can be done by AI, which ones cannot and grading them across a rubric, you know, about three percent are doable now with …”

“Mythos is potentially the biggest step up in model capabilities in like two years.”

“Current 4.6 Opus or 4.7 Opus to your models a year from now, my spend for the same exact quality of the model would probably be like 70 K. I bet you it'll be a hundred times cheaper.”

“Your ability to implement something is not actually that important. Your ability to choose the correct idea for AI to implement, and then your ability to sell that idea, or sell what the AI has implemented, is what matters. Your ability to garner capital towar…”

“Where they only release, meet those to certain companies for cyber, that's just going to be something that continues. Models will have less broad and less broad deployment.”

“Robots, currently the robot models VLAs Vision Language Action Models, which is very popular right now, is probably Not going to be the thing that ultimately scales beyond. They are inefficient in data. And we can't scale the data for them fast enough.”

“And so I think in the next six to 18 months, we'll start seeing real breakthroughs in robotics that enable few shot learning, i.e. There's a pre-trained robot model, and now there's a robot that you have hired or bought or whatever. You showed a few examples a…”

“But ultimately, yes, Mythos is a significantly larger model. It's proof that the scaling laws still work. Everything about it shows that the trend line continues of models. More compute into model makes model better.”

“It's pretty clear even the tier two lab is going to be sold out of tokens, let alone the tier one lab. The tier one lab will have better margins, but the tier two lab will be sold out and probably the tier three lab will also be close to sold out.”

“Economic value that the best model can deliver is growing faster Then our ability to actually serve those tokens to people via the infrastructure. And so this gap will continue to grow and the model labs will continue to have expanding margins until people in …”

“Sincerely, they may spend a hundred billion dollars on capex in twenty-twenty-eight, and people, like, just can't fathom that”

“CPU-wise, all these reinforcement learning environments plus all the slop code you and I are generating that is now running on some, you know, Vercel instance or whatever it is or some AWS instance or some bucket that we've spun up, all of that requires CPU, a…”

“You look at the comments of news articles where Sam Altman had a Molotov cocktail thrown at his house twice in like two weeks.”

“Even if the KMT wins, it's not like TSMC starts disobeying American export restrictions because The way American export restrictions are upheld is that Taiwan utilizes American banking systems, American equipment industries, and so they'll still have to uphold…”

“Just in January, it went from four percent of or two percent of commits on GitHub to four percent of GitHub commits were done by Cloud Code, right?”

“Google and Amazon haven't taken on debt yet for AI infrastructure, but they will, right?”

“Google, Amazon, they get to vertically integrate, integrate, and vertical integration always saves tons of money. So he has to be better than everyone. By, not just like a little bit, by a ton. To justify his margins. Otherwise, the vertical integration of his…”

“I think moats are as shallow as they've ever been, right? Because how fast things are moving, the size of the numbers that are being thrown around now, right? It's hundreds of billions of dollars for each major hyperscaler. The size of the numbers are so large…”

“When we look in 26, Google would buy a lot more TPUs, but they can't ramp production fast enough, right? And so they have to buy tons of GPUs. And we go to 27, it applies again, right? Google simply cannot buy enough TPUs, and they have to buy tons of GPUs.”

“What's the bottleneck to building more fabs or to building more chips is more fabs, and people just have not built these fabs yet, right? And that's, I think, the big bottleneck now. And that's gonna persist through the end of the decade. Or until AI, you know…”

“In a general purpose workload, crock. Grok doesn't work, right? You know, it can't train, it can't, you know, it can't inference really, really large models cost efficiently, right? You can't serve many, many, many users, but what it can do is it can go block,…”

“And then, you know, Microsoft's Maya is not credible, but like, you know, maybe it will be one day, right?”

“In fact, they missed revenue last year significantly and yet they got bought, right? Because the value of the IP was there and the value of the team.”

“All of them will have a very good UX for download model, run model on VLM by The middle of the year, I think, right? Certainly AMD is already there by the end of this quarter.”

“I don't think they'll Go beyond, like, I think they'll stay in single digits market share, single digit percentage market share.”

“You're never going to beat Nvidia at their own game, right? They're going to have the supply chain on lock. They're going to get to the newest memory technology or process technology or whatever packaging technology, whatever it is, sooner than you.”

“But as far as I understand, the national government has not banned Nvidia's H-twenty or H-two hundred, but the local ones have. Right. A lot of local ones have said, no, you know, you must use China manufactured chips.”

“I would say there's like 15 or 20 countries that can shut down the entire semiconductor industry.”

“China has the most vertical stack and semiconductors today.”

“America could not build a fully vertical fab without stuff from elsewhere, even if it's 20 year old tech.”

“Their lithography is like 10 years behind and I think it'll be five years behind in a couple of years, right?”

“ChatGPT has a billion users roughly.”

“Chips Act did not get passed, only got passed because that happened. And people are like, oh my God, the semiconductors are why cars can't be made. If that didn't happen, we wouldn't even have the Chips Act.”

“I don't think it's a bubble yet.”

“But two percent of GitHub commits today are cloud code.”

“AI is under earning the value that it's producing in the world, right? By a significant margin already today.”

“He used, like, 10,000 dollars of Claude in one week and built an entire RTS from scratch about, like, but instead of, like, being a standard RTS where it's like, oh, Age of Empires where you advance through ages or Starcraft, it is an RTS where it's China vers…”

“We have an indicator internally at Anthropic where you see how many people actually write code now. There's only a few holdouts left.”

“And then you've got data centers now all of a sudden coming online and going from two percent to 10% of the U S grid in just a handful of years.”

“So the U.S. Grid will get to, like, 10% of power by, like, 28, 27, is data centers. For water consumption, it's not even gonna crack one percent. By the end of the decade.”

“I think the metric was the entirety of Elon Musk's Colossus data center, right? Uses as much water as two and a half in and outs.”

“Have clients would like, had a client buy a coal plant. And we were advising them on the transaction based on, they just like showed up and they're like, yeah, we want to buy power assets.”

“OpenAI's new model, I think, will be better than Opus 4.5, and it's coming, like, somewhat soon in March-ish timeframe, maybe February, March-ish, but”

“Because OpenAI has a better RL stack than Anthropic today, it's just their pre-trained models suck compared to Anthropic's pre-training, right?”

“Flip side, Google has a better pre-trained model than Anthropic or OpenAI, but their RL stack sucks.”

“Opus 4.5 on Claude code is a new moment where the way you work has forever changed.”

“Give it six months, the models will be good enough that the UX can be like, talking to it.”