Scott Page
Professor, University of Michigan. On 1 show, 1 appearance. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
academicauthorscientist
Scott Page is a professor of complexity, social science, and management at the University of Michigan. He is an author and researcher studying complex systems and modeling.
1shows
1appearances
16statements
2resolved
1supported
1contradicted
50%fully supported
Everything Scott Page said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Scott Page: Making sense of complex systems requires ensembles of diverse models
“One way you can make sense of complexity is by throwing ensembles of models at both. So one of them may explain 20%, another 15%, and it's not that they add up to a hundred percent that they're explaining everything. In fact, if there's overlap, there's even s…”
Page: Data-driven success formulas fail when adopted at scale
“And in this book, The Formula, he talks about how these are the lessons for success by looking at tons and tons of data. And it's in some of it is about some of the things we were talking about before with Gawande's. You want to like make sure you use your net…”
Page: Successful people wrongly assume they won purely due to individual ability
“People who are successful by definition have, are in, have always won and they're in power and they think I'm good because I'm here because I'm good. And they typically are. And they tend to think they're there because they've had a lot of ability. They have a…”
Page: Decentralized market mechanisms fail on extremely complex problems
“But when it gets super hard, the market's not going to work.”
Scott Page: Big winners in positive-feedback markets depend as much on luck as skill
“If you thought, no, this person sold these books because they're just so much better, right? That's a very different story than if you say, no, just the natural process of people buying books leads to big winners. Then you start realizing, you know, the big wi…”
Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the…”
Page: Organizational efficiency pressures erode cognitive diversity in mental models
“When I go work for a firm, or if I'm working in an organization, you know, stock analyst, psychologist, whatever I'm doing, mental models that we use are like local interaction models. Right? I mean, like, it's like, oh, you're using that metal model. It's eas…”
Page: Decision-makers should only include mental models that tangibly improve performance
“No, you don't want to, so there's limits of inclusion, right? I mean, in the sense that, like, you only want to be inclusive to things that are actually going to help you to do whatever it is you're trying to do.”
Page: No single person can understand complex companies like Amazon
“There's so many dimensions to a company like Amazon or Disney, right, that there's no way any one person can understand it, and so what you want is you want cognitive diversity, and what that cognitive diversity means is people who have different, you know, li…”
Page: Linear models beat individuals, but groups often beat linear models
“What you find is the regression does a lot better than any one person because of the fact that The linear regression can include way, a lot more data. It doesn't suffer from biases, all sorts of stuff. But oftentimes when you have groups of people compete agai…”
Page: Rely on models when crowds agree, but investigate when predictions diverge
“What you should do instead is if the linear model and the people are close, you know, the prediction's You probably should go to the linear model because it's really well calibrated, right? It's probably gonna, you know, be better. But if they're far apart, if…”
Page: Repetition and high stakes push behavior toward rationality
“If it's repeated a lot, that should move you a little bit more towards the rational behavior, because people should learn. And if the stakes are huge, that should move you towards rational behavior.”
Page: Regressions only diagnose failures while models enable institutional design
“That's a question you can't touch, really, with, by running regressions necessarily, other than to identify the places where it's not working, right? But you can use models to help you kind of think through, what if we made this a market, right? What if we mad…”
Page: In multidimensional competition, there is no universally best profile
“One of the nice things that both those models sort of tell us is that there's kind of no best answer, because like you're going to win relative to how someone else is, so it's a strategy, it's more like a game, it's strategic, and there's no best thing you can…”
Page: Culture is a collection of solutions to local coordination games
“You can imagine, you're actually playing a whole series of local interaction models. And that collection of local interaction solutions you can think of as comprising a part of culture.”
Scott Page: Firm and species lifespans both follow power-law distributions
“The lifespan of firms, some of them can be really short, but if you happen to get really big, you're going to last a long time. That should be a power law, and it is. It's also true that the lifespan of species phylogenera in ecology, you can think of that as …”
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Scott's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KNOWLEDGE PROJECTLEDGER | Professor, University of Michigan | 1 | 16 | 50% 1/2 | full record on the Knowledge Project → |