Complex systems professor Scott Page contrasts broad liberal arts perspective taking with pragmatic, outcome-driven model selection in business and policy.
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“No, you don't want to, so there's limits of inclusion, right? I mean, in the sense that, like, you only want to be inclusive to things that are actually going to help you to do whatever it is you're trying to do.”
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Scott Page: Making sense of complex systems requires ensembles of diverse models
“One way you can make sense of complexity is by throwing ensembles of models at both. So one of them may explain 20%, another 15%, and it's not that they add up to a hundred percent that they're explaining everything. In fact, if there's overlap, there's even s…”
Scott PageApr 2, 2019▶ 5:16#55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker
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Page: Data-driven success formulas fail when adopted at scale
“And in this book, The Formula, he talks about how these are the lessons for success by looking at tons and tons of data. And it's in some of it is about some of the things we were talking about before with Gawande's. You want to like make sure you use your net…”
Scott PageApr 2, 2019▶ 27:36#55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker
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Page: Successful people wrongly assume they won purely due to individual ability
“People who are successful by definition have, are in, have always won and they're in power and they think I'm good because I'm here because I'm good. And they typically are. And they tend to think they're there because they've had a lot of ability. They have a…”
Scott PageApr 2, 2019▶ 45:42#55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker
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Page: Decentralized market mechanisms fail on extremely complex problems
“But when it gets super hard, the market's not going to work.”
Scott PageApr 2, 2019▶ 59:10#55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker
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Scott Page: Big winners in positive-feedback markets depend as much on luck as skill
“If you thought, no, this person sold these books because they're just so much better, right? That's a very different story than if you say, no, just the natural process of people buying books leads to big winners. Then you start realizing, you know, the big wi…”
Scott PageApr 2, 2019▶ 1:06:54#55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker
PredictionOpen · timeframe Dec 2040
Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the…”
Scott PageApr 2, 2019▶ 1:09:55#55 Scott Page: Becoming a Model Thinker
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