Annie Duke
Special Partner, First Round Capital. On 4 shows, 9 appearances. The Shows tab opens the full record on each.
authorathletefounderinvestorscientist@AnnieDuke ↗LinkedIn ↗annieduke.com ↗Wikipedia ↗
A former World Series of Poker bracelet winner and cognitive psychology researcher, she advises executives and organizations on risk assessment and probabilistic decision-making. She is the author of bestselling books including Thinking in Bets and serves as a Special Partner at First Round Capital.
4shows
9appearances
159statements
16resolved
12supported
1contradicted
75%fully supported
107said about them ↓ Everything Annie Duke said on any show that made the record, most notable first. Each card names its show and opens the statement there.
Duke: Corporate alignment is a stupid myth and shouldn't be expected
“The word alignment is stupid and it shouldn't be used. And I know I'm saying that very harshly, but it's true. It's dumb, because it doesn't exist. Like, you have 10 people in a room, and they're all really different people with different opinions, and they're…”
Duke: Managers should fire a salesperson who closes 100 percent of sales
“And then all of a sudden you have a salesperson who's closing a hundred percent of their sales. And by the way, if you can't change that, you should fire them.”
Duke: Live meetings should only be used for discussion, not decisions
“Here's the thing that I think is the easiest to change, is to realize the only thing that's ever supposed to happen in a meeting is the discussion part.”
Duke: Aiming for consensus turns workplace meetings into coercive exercises
“If the goal is alignment, if the goal is agreement, then the meeting becomes coercive.”
Duke: Premortems alone generally fail to change people's plans or behavior
“What you find with pre-mortems, this is actually work. I actually did this work with Marie Schweitzer and Linnea Gombe, who are both at Penn. Then when you have people do pre-mortems it generally doesn't actually change their plan very much, or it changed thei…”
Duke: Institutional investors underperform random selling by 70 basis points
“When you look at their sell side decisions, they're usually about 70 bips worse than the benchmark.
So if you were to just randomly
Free the capital up from your portfolio.
How would you do?
That's the benchmark.
When you look at their actual decisions, and th…”
Duke: Tackle critical bottlenecks before easy tasks to avoid false progress
“When you're approaching a problem, you want to think about what are the bottlenecks? What's the really hard thing that needs to happen in order for me to be able to unlock this problem? And that's the thing that you're supposed to go after first. You're not su…”
Duke: Asking 'would you buy it today' does not improve decision-making
“One of the things that doesn't help, and I think this is very, very important for financial professionals to hear, is one of the things that does not help is saying, just treat the decision like it's fresh.”
Duke: Ron Conway is most proud of coaching founders to quit
“There's a whole long list of things that you might think he's super proud of, but what's interesting is the thing he's the most proud of is actually coaching founders to quit, which really goes against what we think about as Silicon Valley, like VCs who like, …”
Duke: Working independently yields better feedback than group discussions
“Nominal groups, which are groups of individuals working alone, tend to do better in terms of eliciting the, Feedback and opinions or even brainstorming than when people actually discuss things as a group.”
Duke: Decision outcomes depend solely on luck and information quality
“There's only two things that tell you how a decision is going to work out. One is luck. Can't do anything about it. The other is, is what's the information that went into the decision”
Duke: Investors prioritize risk calculation over expected value
“I think the biggest misconception about risk is that, this is going to be kind of weird, is people spend a lot of time trying to calculate their risk, but they don't think enough about whether they actually... Have the expected value, right? Like, are they win…”
Duke: Sticking to things does not guarantee success due to survivorship bias
“I might argue that people are successful at things they stuck to, which is actually very different than if you stick to something, you'll be successful.”
Duke: The idea that angel investors excel at Series C is absurd
“Like the idea that an angel investor would be great at series C is pretty absurd, except that what we see in the moment is that people feel like they are, because it's very easy to convince yourself when you see something in front of you that's really attracti…”
Duke: The Goal of Group Meetings Should Be Informing, Not Consensus
“The goal of a really good group meeting is not to agree. And we think that the goal is agreement. We think that everybody has to walk out of that room on the same page. The goal of a great group meeting, rather, should be to inform, which is very different. So…”
Duke: Successful Leaders Resist Process Improvement Because It Devalues Past Wins
“Particularly when people are very successful, it's particularly uncomfortable for them to imagine that there might be a ways that they could really improve their decision process. And I think that the reason is that then there's all of a sudden you open up a c…”
Duke: Highly intelligent people are better at spinning data to fit beliefs
“They're better at spinning the data to fit their beliefs because they're better with data. Like, who do you put in a spin room? The dumb guy or the smart guy? No, you put the smart guy so that he can data mine for you.”
Duke: High intelligence worsens outcome bias by disguising it as process
“Unless you're willing to examine both sides of the world, how can you actually be process-oriented, right? Then you're really just outcome-oriented with a bunch of process language wrapping around it, which is why I go back to this problem of being smart makes…”
Duke: An opponent's disrespect is a competitive strategic advantage
“I think that everybody has a need to be liked and respected, but there's a time and a place for that, and when you're sitting across the table from an opponent, it is not in any way, shape, or form to your advantage to be, prove that you should be liked and re…”
Duke: Smart people aware of cognitive biases are worse at overcoming them
“In fact, there's a lot of evidence that says that smart people who know about them are actually worse.”
Duke: High intelligence correlates with manipulating data to support prior beliefs
“It's actually correlated with how smart you are, and it's correlated in the bad way. So the smarter you are, the better you are at kind of slicing and dicing this data to support whatever your prior is.”
Duke: Parents have essentially zero influence on their children's personalities
“You have very little, you have no influence whatsoever, basically on what your child's personality is. What you can do as a parent is make sure they say please and thank you.”
Duke: Outside observers typically understand our situations better than we do
“We tend to think that we have insight that other people don't have when actually the other people probably have more insight into our situation than we do.”
Duke: Investors can choose to shorten 10-year feedback loops with intermediate milestones
“There is no such thing as a long feedback loop. You can make a decision about how long the feedback loop is. That is your choice to live in a long feedback loop. And you can choose to shorten the feedback loop. And the way you choose to shorten the feedback lo…”
The other half of the tape: Annie Duke's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 102 times in 56 episodes across the shows. 5 statements on the record name them. every mention, with the transcript →
Who brings them up most Ted Seides 32Steve Kuhn 5Harry Stebbings 5Dr. Joe Sweeney 5Shane Parrish 4Tom Gaynor 3Renata Quintini 3Marc Andreessen 3
Statements about Annie Duke, by other people (5)
Laboy: Hewlett Foundation maintains a documented 'kill list' for every manager
“One of the things that I've done, and we borrowed this from Annie Duke and her book Quit, we've put together what we call is a kill list. For every manager in our book, we have what we call kill lists and key debates.”
Marshall: Hewlett Foundation uses pre-mortem 'kill lists' for manager due diligence
“Not only do we start with a list of concerns, we also, thanks to your great guest, Annie Duke, we started adding what we call a kill list. So think of it as a pre-mortem. Pre-identify places where the firm, the manager style may not work.”
Ted Seides: Quitting on time usually feels like quitting too early
“Quitting on time usually feels like quitting too early.”
Brandywine rates investments 1-to-5, excluding 3 to eliminate fence-sitting
“We also are really, really believers in using a framework at the end of our process where everyone on the team grades any investment we're doing on a series of criteria that's very, very specific to that investment. On a scale of one through five, not using th…”
Every mention by year
tap a year for its mentions
Capital Allocators 61
20VC 19
the Knowledge Project 15
Lenny's Podcast 7
2026 7 mentions in 5 episodes 1 per episode
- SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: Capital Allocators University Online
- Senior Decision Makers: Luis Laboy, Hewlett Foundation (EP.512)
- How to Repair and Nourish Your Gut | Dr. Giulia Enders
- You Don’t Need To Innovate To Be Successful | FarmVille Creator
- Oren Zeev: Why AI Growth Expectations Are BS & Won't Last? Why GPs Shouldn't Tell LPs Their Strategy
- every mention in 2026, scene by scene →
2025 7 mentions in 4 episodes 2 per episode
- Ted on Alt Goes Mainstream (EP.458)
- Mental models for building products people love ft. Stewart Butterfield
- 20Sales: From $2M ARR to $40M ARR: The Playbook | How to Use AI To Supercharge Your Sales Team | Why Pipeline Reviews are BS | The Sales Call Script that Closes 99% of Prospects and How to Hire the Best Sales Reps with Kyle Norton, CRO @ Owner
- Michael Choe - Atomization of Private Equity Decisions at Charlesbank (EP.432)
- every mention in 2025, scene by scene →
2024 10 mentions in 7 episodes 1 per episode
- Tom Gayner: Invest Like The Best
- Ana Marshall – The Climb to Investment Excellence (EP.360)
- How a great founder becomes a great CEO | Jonathan Lowenhar (co-founder of Enjoy The Work)
- Scott Bessent - Macro Maven (EP.415)
- Blythe Masters - Fintech Innovation at Motive Partners (EP.376)
- Jonathan Tepper - Buying Monopolies at Prevatt Capital (EP.375)
- Chandra Narayanan: Top 5 Lessons from Leading Analytics at Facebook | E1126 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- every mention in 2024, scene by scene →
2023 6 mentions in 5 episodes 1 per episode
- a16z GP Jeff Jordan: The Ultimate Guide to Two-Sided Marketplaces | 20VC #966 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Ted Seides – Unlocking Investment Wisdom (EP.352)
- Mastering product strategy and growing as a PM | Maggie Crowley (Toast, Drift, TripAdvisor)
- Mike Maples: Lessons from SVB; Crisis Management Tips; USD's Status as the Reserve Currency | E993 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- The Ultimate Guide for Building a Two-Sided Marketplace | a16z's Jeff Jordan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- every mention in 2023, scene by scene →
2022 22 mentions in 11 episodes 2 per episode
- Renata Quintini and Roseanne Wincek – Renegade Spin-Out in the Supercritical Stage, Venture is Eating the Investment World 11 (Capital Allocators, EP. 242)
- Year in Review 2022 (Capital Allocators, EP. 289)
- #129 Marc Andreessen: Interview with an Icon
- How Snyk built a product-led growth juggernaut | Ben Williams (VP of Product at Snyk)
- Dropbox CEO Drew Houston: How to Pick a Co-Founder; Steve Jobs' Attempt to Buy Dropbox | 20VC #938 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
- Customer-led growth | Georgiana Laudi (Forget The Funnel)
- Friends Reunion 2 – Five Allocators Riff on Investing with Meredith Jenkins, Casey Whalen, Brett Barth, Jon Harris, and Ted Seides (Capital Allocators, EP.271)
- Building a meaningful career | Jason Shah (Airbnb, Amazon, Microsoft, Alchemy)
- 3 more episodes that year, every mention in 2022 →
2021 20 mentions in 8 episodes 3 per episode
- BONUS – Michael Mauboussin on the Decision Education Podcast
- Ted with Jenny Heller – Compounding Knowledge and Relationships (Capital Allocators, EP.185)
- 20VC: Has Price Discipline Disappeared? Is it Possible to Build Ownership Over Time? Why Venture Is Less Collaborative Now Than Ever? How fast Do Breakout Companies Become Obvious? How To Construct an Optimised and Repeatable Investment Decision-Making Pr
- #105 Seth Godin: Failing On Our Way To Mastery
- #119 Todd Simkin: Making Better Decisions
- Jennifer Heller – Beginner's Mind with Professional Wisdom at Brandywine (Capital Allocators, EP.211)
- 20VC: Insight Managing Director, Deven Parekh on The Current Funding Mania, Compression of Round Timelines, Fund Deployment Speeds Increasing & How To Think Through Price and Time Allocation Across the Portfolio
- Ted with Patrick O'Shaughnessy – Lessons from the World's Elite Money Managers (Capital Allocators, EP.184)
- every mention in 2021, scene by scene →
2020 5 mentions in 3 episodes 2 per episode
2019 16 mentions in 7 episodes 2 per episode
- Steve Kuhn – Life After Hedge Funds (Capital Allocators, EP.85)
- 20VC: First Round's Josh Kopelman on Why Price Is Both An Art and A Science, Why Ownership Must Be Built on First Check and The Negative Consequences of Attribution in Venture
- 20VC: Benchmark's Bill Gurley on 5 Traits Benchmark Look For When Adding To The Partnership, Why The Abundance of Capital Is Today's Biggest Challenge in VC & The Right Way To Think About Market Size When Assessing Opportunities
- Jordi Visser – Next Generation of Manager Allocation (Capital Allocators, EP.92)
- #70 Scott Adams: Avoiding Loserthink
- Gary Klein with Paul Sonkin and Paul Johnson – Conducting Pre-Mortem Analysis (Capital Allocators, EP.109)
- Gabriel Weinberg: Practical Steps to Safeguard Your Data and Identity Online
- every mention in 2019, scene by scene →
2018 9 mentions in 6 episodes 2 per episode
- Michael Lombardi – Leadership Through Football (Capital Allocators, EP.75)
- Clare Flynn Levy and Cameron Hight - Moneyball for Managers (Capital Allocators, EP.43)
- Michael Schwimer – Moneyball as an Investment Strategy (Capital Allocators, EP.72)
- Peter Troob – Monkey Business in High Yield (Capital Allocators, EP.59)
- Brian Portnoy – From Complex to Simple (Capital Allocators, EP.57)
- Basil Qunibi - Moneyball for Allocators (Capital Allocators, EP.42)
- every mention in 2018, scene by scene →
One line per show, most statements first. The link opens Annie's full record on that show: the calibration, argument clarity, speaking style and every statement made there.
| Show | Role there | Eps | Statements | Record | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAPITAL ALLOCATORSLEDGER | Special Partner, First Round Capital | 5 | 103 | 70% 7/10 | full record on Capital Allocators → |
| KNOWLEDGE PROJECTLEDGER | Special Partner, First Round Capital | 2 | 25 | 100% 2/2 | full record on the Knowledge Project → |
| 20VCLEDGER | Special Partner, First Round Capital | 1 | 16 | 0% 0/1 | full record on 20VC → |
| LENNY'S PODCASTLEDGER | Special Partner, First Round Capital | 1 | 15 | 100% 3/3 | full record on Lenny's Podcast → |