The Calls, every show
Every prediction date on 44 shows that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
shows 
every show 44 of 44
Everyone Jason Lemkin (127)Chamath Palihapitiya (119)Rory O'Driscoll (115)Jason Calacanis (78)David Sacks (69)David Friedberg (63)Harry Stebbings (47)David Senra (45)Brad Gerstner (43)Alex Kantrowitz (38)John Coogan (37)Shaan Puri (36)
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The record (81) every resolved claim →
Gerstner: US government will take action against AI model distillation
“I think the US government is going to take steps against distillation, which they should do.”
Gerstner: SpaceX will use an innovative lockup structure for its IPO
“With respect to the lockup, I think this is the most innovative, and I think SpaceX is going to have a very similar innovation.”
Gerstner: SpaceX IPO will trade at 40 to 50 times revenue
“This is why the SpaceX IPO is going to trade at 40 to 50 times revenue.”
Gerstner predicts OpenAI and Google will sandbox frontier AI models
“I think that OpenAI will end up doing the same thing. I think Google will end up doing the same thing.”
Gerstner: Chip plants will be built in Vietnam, Japan, India, and Middle East
“I think you are going to see plants that get built in places like Vietnam and Japan. I think you are going to see them get built in India. You're probably going to see some attempts in the Middle East.”
Gerstner: Donald Trump will reach a big deal with China
“The reason I'm confident and I've said on this pod, That I think he'll get a big deal done with China.”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Gerstner: Meta will stay committed to open source alongside proprietary models
“My hunch is that they're going to stay very committed to open source, but they may compliment it with a proprietary model. That would be my guess. As opposed to scrapping open source altogether.”
Gerstner: Snowflake will eventually surpass its peak market valuation
“The truth of the matter is, I think Snowflake will be worth a lot more in the future than it is today, and even more in the future than it was then.”
Gerstner predicts SearchGPT will not reach one billion users
“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”
Gerstner: Venture capital investments from 2020-2022 will produce lousy returns
“I think the vintage of the last 18 months will be lousy. So the capital deployed over the last 18 months won't have a lot of return.”
Gerstner: Tech market valuations will not bounce back to 2020–2021 peak levels
“Let me be absolutely clear. There is no bouncing back to where we were the last 18 months. That was the outlier. That was the make-believe.”
Gerstner: China will not supply weapons to Russia
“This is why they're not going to supply the Russians with weapons.”
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Gerstner: Amazon will deploy custom silicon but remain major Nvidia buyer
“I think the answer to that is yes, but I still think they'll be one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA GPUs in the world because it doesn't replace that for a lot of really important workloads.”
Gerstner Forecasts 250k GPUs in 2025 and 1-2M in 2026 for Stargate
“And I'm forecasting maybe 250,000 GPUs this year, maybe a million or two million, you know, next year”
Gerstner: 100% of 2021's thousand unicorns will face down rounds
“Remember we had a thousand unicorns at the end of 2021. And I've said a hundred percent of those are going to do a down round. And we're still in the early stages of that reset to occur.”
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Gerstner: Trump accounts initiative will go live on July 4th
“These things are going to go live on July fourth.”
Gerstner predicts up to 40 percent of 2022 unicorns will disappear
“Yeah, I'd say 30 to 40% are these companies that were valued over a billion dollars that don't have product market fit. They'll disappear.”
Gerstner: 'Death of software' narrative will look silly within 24 months
“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”
Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit
“But I suspect when you look at this package, right, and again, I'm just saying based upon how the Congressional Budget Office will score it, and this is kind of arcane scoring, but it will probably increase the deficit, and at best it would reduce it by a hund…”
Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China
“I think we're going to probably land somewhere in this kind of five to 10% terrace for the rest of the world. Right. If you add that up, that's going to be somewhere order of magnitude, two hundred billion dollars of tariffs, and you're not going to end up at …”
Gerstner: DeepSeek, Anthropic, and OpenAI will launch Blackwell-trained models in 4–8 weeks
“And just this year, like we're going to see the first models over the course of the next four to eight weeks out of deep seek, out of anthropic, out of open AI that are trained on blackwell servers, right? You're going to see a next generation of models Far mo…”
Gerstner: Enacted US Tariffs on China Will Not Land at 54%
“There's no, no way that lands, I think at 54%. That's the headline tariffs.”
Gerstner: US tariffs will ultimately settle around $300B to $400B
“I think we're going to land the plane here closer to three or four hundred billion in tariffs, not six or 700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs.”
Gerstner: Congressional Democrats will file federal lawsuit against DOGE budget cuts
“I do expect that Schumer or a group of members as early as this week is going to file you know, a claim, a lawsuit in federal court where they say that there's a violation of the constitution under article one, section nine, clause seven, where Congress has th…”
Gerstner: xAI will launch Grok 3 trained on world's biggest cluster
“We're going to see he's going to launch Grok three here. I think they're going to have the output the first training run on the biggest cluster in the world. And we're excited to see what that yields from my own perspective.”
Gerstner: DOGE and Trump will cut hundreds of billions from federal budget
“My forecast is that Doge is actually, and this administration are actually going to cut a lot out of the budget. And you know, I think that you have the leadership in the House and the Senate, and so if they cut hundreds of billions of dollars out of this budg…”
Gerstner: Trump will likely rescind most of Biden's AI executive order
“I suspect that Trump is going to rescind all, or at least part, the major part of the Biden EO executive order on AI.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT will likely cross 1 billion weekly active users in 2025
“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”
Gerstner: The US and China will strike a major deal before year-end
“I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.”
Gerstner: OpenAI and other frontier labs will open-source models in 2025
“Sam and the industry response seems to be tipping more in the direction where we're going to go open to. And my suspicion is you will see that this year you know, out of folks like open AI”
Gerstner: Big tech AI CapEx investments will materialize in 2025
“And I think what we can put to bed based upon the conversations we've had, what people are hearing out there, the conversations at CES, there are going to, these investments are going to show up in 20, 25, right?”
Gerstner: Nvidia will not lose AI market share from 2024 to 2025
“So I actually think if you look at the consensus numbers, they probably would imply that NVIDIA's market share is going down 24 to 25. And I don't think that to be true.”
Gerstner: Google and OpenAI will launch superior coding agents in 2025
“I think you're going to see some pretty dramatic breakthroughs this year on coding, right? So think about all the startups that we've seen in the coding space. A lot of them have used prompt injection and other techniques in order to You know, kind of get thes…”
Gerstner: Tesla Robotaxi will likely launch in select cities by Q2 2025
“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”
Gerstner: Broad indices will not see a 25% gain in 2025
“I don't expect a 25% up year for a broad-based index.”
Gerstner: Apple will partner with OpenAI, limiting features to newer iPhones
“I think they're going to have a series of announcements, you know, in terms of integrating with OpenAI. They're going to make the phone better. They're going to say, you can only get it on 15 plus or 16. They'll drive a replacement cycle into, you know, that b…”
Gerstner: US wealth disparity will continue to increase
“The exact, the exacerbation of the wealth disparity is going to increase, not decrease.”
Gerstner: Prop 22 will become the regulatory model for New York and other states
“You're going to see if Prop. 22 passes, which I think it will tonight, it's going to be the architecture that New York and many other states follow. They're certainly not going to follow the disastrous AB five Example.”
Gerstner Predicts OpenAI Will Release an Open-Source Model by Summer 2025
“I do think you're going to see the open AI open source model. I mean, Sam's talked about it many times. I think you're going to see that in the next 30 days or so, certainly by the end of summer, but I would guess sooner rather than later.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 will be 100% hands-free
“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 13 will deliver another 10x MPCI improvement
“And then with the launch of FSD 13 in the next couple of weeks, we expect another 10 X improvement. In terms of that MPCI”
Gerstner: Next-Gen AI Frontier Models Will Arrive in Q2 2025
“All the rest of the frontier models are kind of in this holding pattern because they're waiting for the B 100 to get launched to this Q three, Q four out of Nvidia. Which probably means the next iteration of the frontier models will come out in Q two of next y…”
Gerstner: Investors should brace for real, structural tariffs within three months
“So I just think that one should brace over the next three months. I think these tariffs are very real. They're structural and the president is committed to them.”
Gerstner: Post-COVID inflation will roll over and long-term trends will resume
“I think the much more likely explanation is that the trends that existed for 20 years still exist. They were interrupted temporarily by us saving ourselves from a catastrophe with COVID. The transient thing that everybody has come to make fun of, right? Transi…”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will launch in April 2025 with 400B parameters
“What I'm hearing, Bill, is that it'll be a four hundred billion parameter model, It'll use like, it'll be a mixture of expert model using, you know, 50, 60 70 experts. It's gonna have huge context window, like ten million context window, you know, and it's gon…”
Gerstner: GPT-5 will introduce early memory and agentic actions
“Like I think in GPT-V, it's not going to be the final state, but I think you're going to see the beginnings of memory and the beginnings of actions. Right. And this is, you know, months away and you and I have a bet on this.”
Gerstner: Trump Will Declare Victory on Vietnam Tariffs Before April 9
“So we're gonna hear all these ad hoc negotiations going on, some of which I'm sure, like Vietnam, he'll declare victory on even before we get to April ninth, because they've already capitulated on a bunch of tariffs.”
Gerstner: Altimeter expects four portfolio IPOs, including Cerebras, CoreWeave, and Databricks
“I think we may have four IPOs in the pipeline in the next four to six months. The rumors out there around companies like Cerebris and CoreWeave and Databricks, those are all in our portfolios.”
Gerstner: Trump will commit to balancing budget in March State of the Union
“I think in the President's State of the Union address in the first week of March, he's gonna make a commitment to balance the budget in his first term in office.”
Gerstner: More compute will be deployed in 2024 than all previous history
“We're gonna deploy more compute in twenty-twenty-four than in all previous years combined.”
Gerstner: Fed's 1.5% GDP forecast for 2024 is probably overly optimistic
“The Fed has said its forecast for next year is 1.5% on GDP. I think that's probably rosy. Given, ah, the things that we're seeing in the world, 20% credit cards, 10% car loans, eight percent mortgages are having a deleterious impact on consumption.”
Gerstner: 10-year yields are peaking and rate cuts are coming in 2024
“We're nearing the top of tenure, if not at the top. We're gonna see rate cuts next year, and importantly, we're at the beginning of what may be the most important super cycle, accelerant, to our economy in a long time.”
Gerstner: Big Four Tech to Spend $220B on CapEx in 2024
“If you look at the big four, they're gonna spend two hundred and twenty billion this year on CapEx, you know.”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will likely arrive by late 2024
“So it seems to me and our team's best guess is that Llama four is going to come in the back half of the year. Right. Maybe in November, December timeframe.”
Gerstner: The GPU shortage will not turn into a glut in 2024
“Every supply shortage does ultimately result in a glut. But people have been calling for this glut now for you know, 12 months anyway. And they're calling for it again this year. We're not going to see it again this year.”
Gerstner: Four or five companies will reach GPT-4 performance in 2024
“I think, you know, a lot said in a tweet yesterday, we're going to have four or five companies that hit chat GPT four level this year with their models. I think that's exactly right.”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates in 2024
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year, right?”
Gerstner: Tech IPO Dam Will Break in Second Half of 2024
“I think you're gonna see the dam really break on this year, particularly in the back half of this year. And the reason is because people gotta raise capital, right?”
Gerstner: Pragmatic, moderate Democrat like Buttigieg will emerge as party nominee
“I think that there is a, there's been a doctrine in the Democratic Party that to win the primary, you got to veer to the left. Right. You got to contend with Bernie. You got to contend with Elizabeth Warren, but ultimately that's a losing strategy in the elect…”
Gerstner: The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates Before 2024 US Election
“I'm still in the camp that we're going to have rate cuts ahead of the election, but the market is now pricing and I think only three rate cuts between now and the end of the year.”
Gerstner predicts the Fed will cut interest rates in mid-September 2024
“I think within the Fed, they know that the balance of power between concern over inflation and jobs has shifted, so I expect that on schedule in 30 days I think it's mid-September, you're gonna get a rate cut.”
Gerstner: Llama 3 and GPT-5 Will Launch Between May and July
“The first H 100 only trained models, I think, will be Llama three and chat GPT five. So we're hearing rumors that both of those models are going to come out in the May, July timeframe.”
Gerstner: Cloud hyperscalers will beat consensus revenue forecasts due to AI
“You know, our belief is that they will. We think they will beat those forecasts because we do see that real acceleration coming out of AI.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT usage will bounce back to 100M–150M level after summer
“I think that what we're going to see is kids come back to school. You're going to see the normal uptick in traffic. It probably hangs out around this hundred million, hundred and fifty million level in terms of usage.”
Brad Gerstner predicts Nvidia will beat earnings expectations through late 2023
“I don't think there's any problems with Nvidia. I think they're going to continue to perform. I think they're beat their numbers for the balance of the year.”
Gerstner: Snowflake will grow free cash flow over 100% in 2022
“Snowflake this year will grow its free cash flow at over a hundred percent a year. Next year, probably, you know, 80 or 90%. Free cash flow. Not just revenue. Free cash flow.”
Gerstner: Meta will launch major AI models and agents within six weeks
“Over the next four to six weeks. They're going to have massive launches out of the AI side of the business. I expect a lot more support for their open AI model or for their open LLM. I also think they're going to launch a bunch of agents on WhatsApp and Instag…”
Brad Gerstner predicts upcoming AI funding rounds will dwarf Mistral's €105M seed
“There are going to be a couple of monster rounds, I think announced next week, like that are going to make this one look like kids play.”
Gerstner: Used car prices will be lower by May 2023
“For two months in a row, we've had sequential declines. You tell me, is the price of the used car this time next year higher than 29 or lower than 29? It's going to be lower because we're destroying demand by raising interest rates.”
Gerstner: Tech growth stocks will be higher by May 2023
“We will be higher for growth stocks this time next year, but we may very well get there by way of lower and potentially meaningfully lower because the counterfactual to the hyperinflation argument is not, you can't deliver the counterfactual for at least four …”
Gerstner: Most companies IPOing in the next year will be down-rounds
“I think the vast majority of companies that come public in the next 12 months are going out below their last round's valuation.”
Gerstner: Growth equity multiples face an additional 10-20% drawdown
“I suspect that there's another 10 to 20% to go, right? For a 10 year that's going to be sitting here at one eight.”
Gerstner predicts no blue wave and a divided Senate following 2020 election
“And I think what the markets are starting to price in is that this is not going to be a blue wave. There's no mandate here for massive tax reform. There's going to be a divided Senate. It's going to be hard to pass legislation. That's going to be overly onerou…”
Gerstner: Democrats will not win control of the US Senate
“They're not going to get the Senate either.”
Gerstner: US Senate almost certain to stay Republican 51-49
“Is anybody prepared to, I, I'm getting a read from my analysts who are live blogging to me that the Senate is almost certain to go Republican at this point, with Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina going Republican. And Michigan and Montana both in real danger for…”