Robotaxi

topic on 12 shows · 20 statements across 15 episodes · said 2 times in 2 episodes since 2025

Latent Space 1 TBPN 1 In Depth More or Less BG2 Pod Masters of Scale No Priors the Green Blueprint the a16z Podcast Big Technology All-In David Senra

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19 statements about Robotaxi, every show

TBPN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Coogan: Tesla Could Build 1M Robotaxis in One to Two Years
“Over a year or two, they could probably manufacture a million robo-taxis, and I think the technology is pretty much there.”
John Coogan Aug 12, 2026 ▶ 23:17 Nvidia’s $500B Compute Deal, Paramount Threatens CA Exit, Musk’s Shortcut to $1T Payday | Diet TBPN
a16z Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Younis: Robotaxis will be routine in 200 major US cities by 2030
“It's 26 now. I mean, certainly by 30.”
Qasar Younis Jul 21, 2026 ▶ 41:07 Why Physical AI Is the Next Frontier | The a16z Show
TBPN Prediction Held up
Coogan: Robotaxis will definitely have cameras monitoring passengers
“If you get in a robo taxi, there's definitely going to be a camera on you.”
John Coogan Apr 28, 2026 ▶ 0:06 In-Car Surveillance is Coming | Diet TBPN
Xu: Robotaxi designs are fundamentally wrong for last-mile delivery
“In the world of autonomous vehicles, you have a lot of the projects and a lot of the capital and a lot of the attention are going towards robotaxi. And that's just a very different solution and form factor in our opinion than what you need for last mile delive…”
Tony Xu Mar 29, 2026 ▶ 1:03:04 Tony Xu of DoorDash: Surviving 1,000 Days of Startup Hell
IN DEPTH Opinion
Younis: Robotaxis are bad business because expensive hardware replaces cheap human drivers
“We just didn't see a good business there. We like, it's just like, you're going to spend like long time. We estimated five years, which ended up being short to ultimately replace a driver who is really cheap. And it's like, that just doesn't make sense in term…”
Qasar Younis Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 12:45 Inside the ex-YC partner’s $15B self driving car company | Qasar Younis
IN DEPTH Prediction Not checkable as stated
Younis: Robotaxi and passenger car autonomy strategies will converge
“There is a ever increasing view that Actually, the strategy of a robotaxi and the strategy of a passenger car autonomy are going to collapse in China. It's showing that more and more.”
Qasar Younis Aug 1, 2025 ▶ 35:52 Inside the ex-YC partner’s $15B self driving car company | Qasar Younis
ALL-IN Prediction Open · timeframe May 2035
Calacanis: Taxi driver jobs will no longer exist in ten years
“We're seeing robo-taxis start to hit the streets, and I don't think anybody believes that being a cab driver is going to exist as a job 10 years from now.”
Jason Calacanis May 31, 2025 ▶ 2:32 AI Doom vs Boom, EA Cult Returns, BBB Upside, US Steel and Golden Votes
NO PRIORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Vogt: Starlink-style satellite connectivity will expand robotaxi deployment areas
“I think the missing piece, maybe Starlink or something similar where you can have always on connectivity between Starlink and maybe a cell phone and some other fallback. I think that really opens up the opportunity in the number of places you can deploy robota…”
Kyle Vogt Feb 20, 2025 ▶ 6:58 No Priors Ep. 102 | With The Bot Company CEO Kyle Vogt
BG2 Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Tesla Robotaxi will likely launch in select cities by Q2 2025
“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 25:33 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Brit Morin: Tesla Robovan Is Far More Exciting Than Robotaxi
“The robo van is actually, I think way more exciting than the robo taxi. I think because it can seat up to 20 people, but it can also be like its own retail space. Like the amount of square footage you have in that thing creates like businesses on wheels.”
Brit Morin Oct 18, 2024 ▶ 21:40 #69: Robots, Rockets, and Elon Hype · More or Less Podcast
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Elon Musk scrapped Tesla's Model 2 on the spot for the robotaxi
“When he saw the robotaxi, he was so bowled over by whatever it was he saw in it, right, that he remarked to his to his team, wow, you know, this looks great. Let's just do this. He scrapped the Model Two on the spot, and he said, let's do the robotaxi. We're d…”
Steve LeVine May 15, 2024 ▶ 10:36 Tesla’s extremely hardcore pivot
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Elon Musk targeted a late 2025 launch for Tesla's robotaxi
“So suddenly, he doesn't, not only wants the robo-taxi, but he wants it at the same time that the Model Two would have come out, which is the second half of next year.”
Steve LeVine May 15, 2024 ▶ 13:24 Tesla’s extremely hardcore pivot
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tesla insiders doubt the robotaxi is ready to operate without pedals
“No one outside the company and no one inside the company who I spoke to anyway believes that the robotaxi is ready to be without a steering wheel, without pedals, and even if it were ready, that is ready for regulators are ready to say, yeah, go.”
Steve LeVine May 15, 2024 ▶ 14:24 Tesla’s extremely hardcore pivot
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Supported
Tesla is investing $10 billion annually across AI, Dojo, and robotics
“You're investing ten billion dollars a year. That's what he's investing in. Dojo, the chip, and Optimus The humanoid robot and robo taxi.”
Steve LeVine May 15, 2024 ▶ 19:36 Tesla’s extremely hardcore pivot
BG2 Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Robotaxis Will Increase Rideshare Net Margins to 12-14%
“We still think that the margin goes up from, let's call it seven percent of gross bookings to something like 12 or 14% of gross bookings, even taking into account all of that bill.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 1:06:18 Ep7. The Great IPO Debate, Tesla Robotaxi v Uber, Tech Check | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
BG2 Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Robotaxis Will Scale Internationally Before the US
“There are a ton of jurisdictions where I expect this, unfortunately, before I expect it in the US you know, at scale.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 1:10:03 Ep7. The Great IPO Debate, Tesla Robotaxi v Uber, Tech Check | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
BIG TECHNOLOGY Assertion Supported
Vogt: Current Cruise robotaxis on the road run on four-year-old hardware
“Well, you know, it takes about four years to you know, go through the automotive development cycle. And so what you see on the road with cruise robotaxis was four years ago, technology, the stuff we're developing now you know, is a lot more sleek and integrate…”
Kyle Vogt Oct 6, 2023 ▶ 21:31 Cruise CEO Kyle Vogt — Self Driving Cars Will 10X Every Year
a16z Assertion Not checkable as stated
Robotaxi unit economics remain worse than human drivers despite $75B invested
“We've been working at this for decades. We've invested seventy-five billion dollars, and the unit economics are still not on par with, like, a human Uber driver, right?”
Martin Casado Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 5:05 The Economic Case for Generative AI with a16z's Martin Casado
GREEN BLUEPRINT Assertion Supported
Lacey: Tesla, GM, Lyft, Uber, and Waymo promised robotaxis by 2020
“Tesla, General Motors, Lyft, Uber, Google's Waymo, they were all promising large fleets of robo-taxis with fully autonomous vehicles by the turn of the decade.”
Stephen Lacey Jan 25, 2023 ▶ 1:11 The autonomous car bubble has popped

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