P(doom)
topic on 6 shows · 9 statements across 8 episodes
the Y Combinator Startup Podcast 
the Knowledge Project 
Latent Space 
the MAD Podcast 
the a16z Podcast 
TBPN
9 statements about P(doom), every show
Coogan: Debating exact p(doom) percentages and extinction mechanics is a sideshow
“The conversation definitely gets dragged down into PDOOM estimates and trying to narrow down exactly how a human extinction scenario plays out, and that can be that can, I feel like that's almost a sideshow. Because in a democratic society, in, amongst humanit…”
John Coogan: Concrete narratives communicate AI risk better than abstract percentages
“It's so easy to condense a PDOOM down to a single number, but I think people like stories. They want something that actually illustrates the chain of events that lead to the bad scenario, as opposed to these vague things where it's like, I have a lot of author…”
Swyx: AI p(doom) over the next ten years is near zero
“I mean, if you do it in 10 years is near zero.”
Swyx: AI p(doom) over the next 50 years is five percent
“50 is like, that's like the end of our lifetimes. And like, I think, I don't know, I'm gonna just throw out 10. No, ten's too high. Five percent.”
Kolter: Calculating a P(doom) for AI is a flawed concept
“I have never expressed a P. Doom and things like this. I just think it's a very weird concept as if the world is some stochastic set of dice that you can roll multiple times and that we don't have direct influence over this.”
Hodak: Personal probability of AI doom is well below 50 percent
“Like I don't, my PDOOM is pretty, it's not zero, but it's not 50%. It's well below that.”
Casado: The probability of existential doom is higher without AI than with it
“The answer is the PDoom without AI is actually quite a bit greater than the PDoom with AI.”
Garry Tan: My AI existential risk 'p(doom)' score is 1%
“My PDOOM score is one percent. Like, I'm not totally, you know, unworried, right?”
Sen. Todd Young: The probability of AI doom is low but non-zero
“Yeah, I, low, but not non-existent. Yeah. Which is how most of the, You know, doomsday scenarios are. They're low probability, high cost, and we need to hedge against them, but I think, let me say this, the first step in hedging against them is to really seek …”