Good Judgment Project
other on 2 shows · 5 statements across 3 episodes · said 12 times in 4 episodes since 2015
the Knowledge Project 10 
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the Knowledge Project 10Capital Allocators 2
2021 1 mention in 1 episode
2020 1 mention in 1 episode
2015 10 mentions in 2 episodes 5 per episode
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5 statements about Good Judgment Project, every show
Mauboussin: Good Judgment Project found base-rate training most improved forecasting accuracy
“What they found was the training did improve people's accuracy of their forecasts, and it turned out they found the thing that was most important in that training was basically this, is this idea of teaching them about base rates, and reference classes, and ju…”
Mauboussin: Noise explains 50% of the gap between elite and average forecasters
“The punchline of this, which was, I think, really the key lightning bolt, was that when they decompose this, they found that the difference between the best and the rest was 50% attributable to noise, 25 to bias, and 25 to information. So saying this different…”
Tetlock: Making explicit probabilistic judgments improves forecasting accuracy
“And I think one of the major takeaways from the forecasting tournaments we've been running is that when people make explicit judgments and they're fully self-conscious about what they're doing, they can learn to do it better.”
Tetlock: Good Judgment Project won IARPA's 2011–2015 forecasting tournaments
“The tournaments ran from 2011 to 2015. They ended in June of this year. And the Good Judgment Project I am proud to say, was the winner of those forecasting tournaments.”
Tetlock: 50 minutes of debiasing training improves forecasting accuracy by 10%
“We got about, for average forecasters who are randomly assigned to an experimental condition in which they get Kahneman style debiasing exercises the improvement is in the vicinity of 10%. And that's a big effect when you consider that, you know, we're talking…”