Good Judgment Project
3 statements across 1 episodes · 2 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2015 by Philip Tetlock · said 10 times in 2 episodes since 2015 · across every show →
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brought up most by Shane Parrish (7), Philip Tetlock (3)
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2015 10 mentions in 2 episodes 5 per episode
Everything said about Good Judgment Project, oldest first
Dec 8, 2015
Dec 8, 2015 positive
Tetlock: 50 minutes of debiasing training improves forecasting accuracy by 10%
“We got about, for average forecasters who are randomly assigned to an experimental condition in which they get Kahneman style debiasing exercises the improvement is in the vicinity of 10%. And that's a big effect when you consider that, you know, we're talking…”
Dec 8, 2015 positive
Tetlock: Making explicit probabilistic judgments improves forecasting accuracy
“And I think one of the major takeaways from the forecasting tournaments we've been running is that when people make explicit judgments and they're fully self-conscious about what they're doing, they can learn to do it better.”