Assertion Supported AI assessment confidence: 95% certainty 4/5 debate potential 1/5

Tetlock: Good Judgment Project won IARPA's 2011–2015 forecasting tournaments

Philip Tetlock · #6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future · Dec 8, 2015 · at 3:13

Philip Tetlock discusses the origins and results of the Good Judgment Project, funded by IARPA to improve intelligence analysis through university competitions.

0:00 / 0:13exact quote · 13.5s
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“The tournaments ran from 2011 to 2015. They ended in June of this year. And the Good Judgment Project I am proud to say, was the winner of those forecasting tournaments.”

quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →

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