Good Judgment Project
2 statements across 2 episodes · 1 bullish · 0 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Mar 23, 2020 by Michael Mauboussin · said 2 times in 2 episodes since 2020 · across every show →
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brought up most by Michael Mauboussin (2)
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2021 1 mention in 1 episode
Everything said about Good Judgment Project, oldest first
Mar 23, 2020
Mauboussin: Noise explains 50% of the gap between elite and average forecasters
“The punchline of this, which was, I think, really the key lightning bolt, was that when they decompose this, they found that the difference between the best and the rest was 50% attributable to noise, 25 to bias, and 25 to information. So saying this different…”
Feb 4, 2021 positive
Mauboussin: Good Judgment Project found base-rate training most improved forecasting accuracy
“What they found was the training did improve people's accuracy of their forecasts, and it turned out they found the thing that was most important in that training was basically this, is this idea of teaching them about base rates, and reference classes, and ju…”