Gas Turbines

“Those industries have historically have not added much capacity for the last decade or so ago, and they've suddenly experienced a demand shock. And it takes years before you can add capacity to produce more turbines and transformers.”

“You can't really get turbines for 28, they're all sold out.”

“Anything you want to order today is probably going to take three plus years in the case of gas turbines, probably more like five years to be able to get your hands on. Anything you order today, whether it's a turbine or a transformer or just the, you know, alu…”

“It takes three years to build them out, and there's a waiting list for three years to even get them.”

“The five to seven years is the timeline to get new gas turbines, if you're ordering them, and it's close to the timeline to get new transformers and other, and switchgear and stuff like that. Like, we're all in the, like, three to five or maybe seven year time…”

“The current production limit, and as you know, there's not that many companies that make gas turbines, is somewhere in the range of about 60 gigawatts a year, and we're likely, last year, to be past that by about 20 gigawatts, and to be past that by about 30 g…”

“The order book for twenty-twenty-eight today is over a hundred gigawatts relative to about 60 gigawatts of production capacity”

“The issue is there's, like, a shortage of these gas turbines. You know, there's only, like, two or three companies that make these things, and, like, there's, like, a backlog of two or three years, so I think that's probably the immediate problem there that ne…”

“I think that gas turbines are going to be in shortage for a very long time.”

“Very high in demand, and there's a year's waiting list before you can get the one you want.”

“I think it's going to end up being the minority of new data centers, not the majority of new data centers.”

“There also though has been a lot of good data to suggest that generating capacity in the next few years is not the dominant Like, there is enough capacity in enough places to deliver the kind of load growth for the next few years that the grid will need. So I …”

“We spoke to a utility CEO, the NextEra CEO in the US, who said, you know, if gas turbines are going to be that expensive, that's just going to make solar plus batteries so much more attractive, and we'll build those instead.”

“I personally think in the long run, nuclear probably ends up looking like gas turbines look today, which is there, you know, in the gas turbine world, there are basically three Three OEMs that control like 70, 75% of the market. It's an oligopoly, essentially.…”

“There's a huge backlog for gas turbines, but basically the engines that Burn the gas to create power. And there's like a two to three year backlog for those to spin those up.”

“The run on gas turbines is such that you can't deploy very many of them next year, or even two years from now. If you want to build the more complex combined cycle generation systems They're talking about 2030, 20 32.”

“Some markets were always investigating, you know, different types of, you know, solutions via gas turbines and, Even those are backlog plus 20, 29, right?”

“About half of the gas turbines that's ordered in the marketplace aren't even for the electric power utility market. They're for the oil and gas market.”

“Most of the large oil and gas players have long-term thinking in mind. So they're making five, 10, seven, and ten-year strategy developments for strategy. Now, well, in any one year, they might Reduce their order activity because the oil and gas prices are dow…”

“It's, but it's definitely up around 30 to 35% over the last five years. The price is definitely up. I track all of that very, very closely.”

“I actually don't think they're going to get much worse. I think all of the OEMs are, in fact, I know all the OEMs are working like crazy to try and shorten up their lead times, or at least make sure they don't get worse.”

“I would say between 36 and 48 months. I suppose there are some OEMs that are claiming up to 60 months, but I would say on average it's around the 48 month period.”

“So while they're all spending a lot of money, and their engineers are working very diligently and doing some fantastic development, I have some doubts as to where, whether the market will actually see a significant Increase in purchases of gas turbines that ac…”

“There is a five-year delay to get a gas turbine into America and online. Ok, if you ordered one today, the fastest that you can get it turned on is 2030.”