gas turbines

19 statements across 9 episodes · 5 bullish · 4 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Jun 5, 2025 by Tony Brough · across every show →

Everything said about gas turbines, oldest first

Jun 5, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Brough: Average gas turbine procurement lead times now stretch to 48 months
“I would say between 36 and 48 months. I suppose there are some OEMs that are claiming up to 60 months, but I would say on average it's around the 48 month period.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 21:42 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 5, 2025 bullish
Assertion Supported
Brough: Gas turbine prices have surged 30% to 35% over five years
“It's, but it's definitely up around 30 to 35% over the last five years. The price is definitely up. I track all of that very, very closely.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 19:03 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 5, 2025 positive
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brough: Gas turbine lead times will not get much worse
“I actually don't think they're going to get much worse. I think all of the OEMs are, in fact, I know all the OEMs are working like crazy to try and shorten up their lead times, or at least make sure they don't get worse.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 20:45 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 5, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brough: Hydrogen-fueled gas turbines will struggle due to fuel supply constraints
“So while they're all spending a lot of money, and their engineers are working very diligently and doing some fantastic development, I have some doubts as to where, whether the market will actually see a significant Increase in purchases of gas turbines that ac…”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 37:35 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 5, 2025
Assertion Supported
Brough: Half of global gas turbine orders go to oil and gas
“About half of the gas turbines that's ordered in the marketplace aren't even for the electric power utility market. They're for the oil and gas market.”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 9:43 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 5, 2025 bullish
Insight
Brough: Oil and gas companies follow resilient seven-year investment cycles
“Most of the large oil and gas players have long-term thinking in mind. So they're making five, 10, seven, and ten-year strategy developments for strategy. Now, well, in any one year, they might Reduce their order activity because the oil and gas prices are dow…”
Tony Brough Jun 5, 2025 ▶ 13:52 The gas turbine crunch
Jun 12, 2025 negative
Assertion Supported
Sharp: Gas turbine delivery backlog extends past 2029
“Some markets were always investigating, you know, different types of, you know, solutions via gas turbines and, Even those are backlog plus 20, 29, right?”
Chris Sharp Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 17:10 The state of play of data center development
Jul 31, 2025 neutral
Assertion Supported
Piper: Combined-cycle gas plant lead times now stretch to 2030–2032
“The run on gas turbines is such that you can't deploy very many of them next year, or even two years from now. If you want to build the more complex combined cycle generation systems They're talking about 2030, 20 32.”
Steve Piper Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 23:25 PJM and the capacity crunch
Oct 16, 2025 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: Generating capacity is not the primary bottleneck for near-term load growth
“There also though has been a lot of good data to suggest that generating capacity in the next few years is not the dominant Like, there is enough capacity in enough places to deliver the kind of load growth for the next few years that the grid will need. So I …”
Shayle Kann Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 14:51 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Oct 16, 2025 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kann: The nuclear reactor market will consolidate into a three-OEM oligopoly
“I personally think in the long run, nuclear probably ends up looking like gas turbines look today, which is there, you know, in the gas turbine world, there are basically three Three OEMs that control like 70, 75% of the market. It's an oligopoly, essentially.…”
Shayle Kann Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 38:52 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Oct 16, 2025 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
NextEra CEO: Expensive gas turbines make solar-plus-storage much more attractive
“We spoke to a utility CEO, the NextEra CEO in the US, who said, you know, if gas turbines are going to be that expensive, that's just going to make solar plus batteries so much more attractive, and we'll build those instead.”
Akshat Rathi Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 15:34 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Oct 16, 2025 bearish
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2030
Kann: Co-located gas power will remain a minority of new data centers
“I think it's going to end up being the minority of new data centers, not the majority of new data centers.”
Shayle Kann Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 11:22 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Oct 16, 2025
Assertion Supported
Rathi: Natural gas turbines face a years-long procurement waiting list
“Very high in demand, and there's a year's waiting list before you can get the one you want.”
Akshat Rathi Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 10:24 Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi
Jan 15, 2026
Assertion Supported
Kann: 2028 gas turbine orders exceed 100 GW against 60 GW capacity
“The order book for twenty-twenty-eight today is over a hundred gigawatts relative to about 60 gigawatts of production capacity”
Shayle Kann Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 20:08 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue and China electrifies
Jan 15, 2026
Assertion Supported
Bullard: Global gas turbine production capacity caps at 60 gigawatts annually
“The current production limit, and as you know, there's not that many companies that make gas turbines, is somewhere in the range of about 60 gigawatts a year, and we're likely, last year, to be past that by about 20 gigawatts, and to be past that by about 30 g…”
Nat Bullard Jan 15, 2026 ▶ 18:37 2026 trends: Gas turbines, Texas’ load queue and China electrifies
Mar 12, 2026 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Kann: Lead times for gas turbines, transformers, and switchgear are 3 to 7 years
“The five to seven years is the timeline to get new gas turbines, if you're ordering them, and it's close to the timeline to get new transformers and other, and switchgear and stuff like that. Like, we're all in the, like, three to five or maybe seven year time…”
Shayle Kann Mar 12, 2026 ▶ 8:02 AI scaling pathways: on grid, on edge, off grid, off planet
Mar 30, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
McAvoy: Gas turbines have a three-year waiting list and build time
“It takes three years to build them out, and there's a waiting list for three years to even get them.”
Sean McAvoy Mar 30, 2026 ▶ 14:10 Battery booms and the rise of flexibility [partner content]
Jun 18, 2026 bearish
Assertion Partly supported
Lubershane: Grid equipment costs 2-3x more and takes 3-5 years to deliver
“Anything you want to order today is probably going to take three plus years in the case of gas turbines, probably more like five years to be able to get your hands on. Anything you order today, whether it's a turbine or a transformer or just the, you know, alu…”
Andy Lubershane Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 4:49 Enter the electric supercycle
Jul 9, 2026 neutral
Assertion Supported
Eliahu-Ontiveros: Gas turbines for 2028 delivery are completely sold out
“You can't really get turbines for 28, they're all sold out.”
Jeremy Eliahu-Ontiveros Jul 9, 2026 ▶ 43:07 Inside the AI power wars
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