Forecasts
topic on 5 shows · 6 statements across 4 episodes · said 2 times in 2 episodes since 2020
Startups For the Rest of Us 1 
the Startup Ideas Podcast 1 
Capital Allocators 
the a16z Podcast 
20VC
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Startups For the Rest of Us 1the Startup Ideas Podcast 1
2026 1 mention in 1 episode
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6 statements about Forecasts, every show
Palihapitiya: Business growth forecasts are worthless regardless of data volume
“The first is that forecasts are pretty worthless because everybody gets them wrong no matter how much data you have.”
Inker: GMO wrongly forecasted mega-cap margin mean reversion on cyclical timeframe
“But one of the things I think we got wrong in our forecast was we said implicitly that that unwinding is going to occur in the same kind of timeframe as cyclical fluctuations in earnings.”
Mauboussin: Additional information increases forecaster confidence without improving accuracy
“The research shows that as you give people additional pieces of information about something, the accuracy of their forecasts don't improve at all, or their bets don't improve at all, but their confidence tends to soar.”
Ring: AI forecasts encode knowledge as subjective, behavior-dependent predictions
“Their secret is that they encode knowledge as behavior-dependent predictions, meaning that each forecast predicts something about what an agent will perceive if it acts in a certain way. So they're subjective predictions. Each one says basically, I will percei…”
Ring: AI forecasts enable layered knowledge by predicting other forecasts
“But critically, forecasts are an isolaminar mechanism, so you can use them layer after layer, from simple to complex. And this is possible because a forecast can make a prediction about another forecast. You can build forecast A to make one prediction, and the…”