forecasts

also referred to as: forecast

2 statements across 2 episodes · 0 bullish · 1 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement May 13, 2019 by Michael Mauboussin · across every show →

Everything said about forecasts, oldest first

May 13, 2019

Assertion Supported

Mauboussin: Additional information increases forecaster confidence without improving accuracy

“The research shows that as you give people additional pieces of information about something, the accuracy of their forecasts don't improve at all, or their bets don't improve at all, but their confidence tends to soar.”

Michael Mauboussin May 13, 2019 ▶ 27:42 Michael Mauboussin – Who's on the Other Side (Capital Allocators, EP.99)

Mar 30, 2020 bearish

Disclosure

Inker: GMO wrongly forecasted mega-cap margin mean reversion on cyclical timeframe

“But one of the things I think we got wrong in our forecast was we said implicitly that that unwinding is going to occur in the same kind of timeframe as cyclical fluctuations in earnings.”

Ben Inker Mar 30, 2020 ▶ 37:24 Ben Inker – Value Investing at GMO (First Meeting, EP.17)

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forecasts

Everything said about forecasts, oldest first

Turn any episode into a week of clips.