Closed Models

topic on 7 shows · 12 statements across 11 episodes

BG2 Pod Latent Space No Priors the MAD Podcast All-In TBPN 20VC

12 statements about Closed Models, every show

ALL-IN Insight
Mensch: Open AI models allow parameter addition impossible with closed models
“If you have open models, you can actually add new parameters. You can make a lot of deeper things that you cannot do with closed models.”
Arthur Mensch Mar 23, 2026 ▶ 1:10:08 Four CEOs on the Future of AI: CoreWeave, Perplexity, Mistral, and IREN
NO PRIORS Assertion Partly supported
Karpathy: Open source trails closed frontier AI models by 6 to 8 months
“So there may be, they're behind by like, what is the latest, maybe like eight months, six months, eight months kind of thing right now.”
Andrej Karpathy Mar 20, 2026 ▶ 49:43 Skill Issue: Andrej Karpathy on Code Agents, AutoResearch, and the Loopy Era of AI
20VC Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2030
Osika: The best AI models will always remain closed-source
“I think the best ones will always be closed but if you want maximal flexibility and some kind of open ecosystem around it might be that open ones are the ones that most people choose.”
Anton Osika Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 1:07:18 Lovable CEO, Anton Osika: The State of Foundation Models, Grok vs OpenAI, and Replit vs Bolt · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Swyx: AI inference providers are a proxy for the open-versus-closed model gap
“The other thing I always think about from a finance point of view that, Maybe people don't even think, don't think about that closely, but obviously push back if you disagree, is that it's basically a proxy for the gap between open models and closed models. Be…”
Shawn Wang Aug 6, 2025 ▶ 13:16 The AI Agenda: GPT5 leaks and the business of AI News — Steph Palazzolo, The Information
TBPN Assertion Supported
Sankar: Open AI models have converged with and surpassed closed models
“If you look at both open and closed models over time, you know, the ELOs are just up and to the right. The open ones have converged and even in some cases surpassed closed models.”
Shyam Sankar Apr 28, 2025 ▶ 4:04 How to Win in the Age of AI and Autonomy | Shyam Sankar on TBPN
MAD Assertion Supported
Arvind Jain: Most enterprise AI use cases rely on closed models
“Today, the, for most customer use cases the companies are using the closed, closed models at the moment”
Arvind Jain Apr 24, 2025 ▶ 4:17 Glean’s Breakthrough: CEO Arvind Jain on Scaling AI Agents & Search
LATENT SPACE Assertion Supported
Soldani: 2024 open models rival frontier performance of closed models
“You have models that are, you know, reveling frontier level performance of what you can get from closed models, from like Quen, from Deep Seek. We got Lama III.”
Luca Soldani Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:15 Best of 2024: Open Models [LS LIVE! at NeurIPS 2024]
Soldani: Local models beat closed models in retrieval applications
“There are some applications where local models just blow closed models out of the water. So, like, retrieval is a very clear example.”
Luca Soldani Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 3:32 Best of 2024: Open Models [LS LIVE! at NeurIPS 2024]
20VC Opinion
Kolter: Closed-source models leading open-weight releases creates a necessary safety buffer
“At least for now, there's a constant stream of closed models that are released sometime before an equivalently capable open, open weight model, right? And I think this is actually a very good thing because my hope would be that, and we've sort of found ourselv…”
Zico Kolter Sep 4, 2024 ▶ 49:42 Zico Kolter: OpenAI's Newest Board Member on The Biggest Questions and Concerns in AI Safety | E1197 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
BG2 Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Closed AI model startups besides OpenAI will struggle to raise funding
“I think it's going to be very difficult for new entrants to be venture backed because to, you know, open AI will continue to get funding because they have this incredible team. They have a hundred million people using the product and paying them for the produc…”
Brad Gerstner Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 18:12 Ep8. AI Models, Data Scaling, Enterprise & Personal AI | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Open-source AI will win if closed models cannot deploy fast enough
“If you can't both train and deploy iteratively and quickly enough, these open source alternatives will win, and as a result, the economic potential that you have to monetize those models will not be there”
Chamath Palihapitiya Apr 26, 2024 ▶ 10:47 Meta's scorched earth approach to AI, Tesla's future, TikTok bill, FTC bans noncompetes, wealth tax
LATENT SPACE Disclosure
Stuhlmüller: Closed-source models consume most of Elicit's compute budget
“I'd say, like, in terms of number of careers, it's maybe similar. In terms of, like, cost and compute, I think the closed models make, make up more of the budget, since the main cases where you want to use closed models are cases where they're just smarter, wh…”
Andreas Stuhlmüller Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 36:17 Supervise the Process of AI Research — with Jungwon Byun and Andreas Stuhlmüller of Elicit

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