Bond Market

topic on 5 shows · 15 statements across 14 episodes

Founder's Journal American Optimist WTF is with Nikhil Kamath Capital Allocators All-In

15 statements about Bond Market, every show

WTF Assertion Supported
Banga: World Bank bond financing is 60% private money, 40% central banks
“The rest is it goes into capital and retained earnings with us, which we leverage up through the bond market, which is mostly, I would say about 60%, Private money, as in insurance companies and pension funds and asset managers. But 40% could be central bank's…”
Ajay Banga Apr 20, 2026 ▶ 21:48 The World Bank President On Why Jobs Fix Everything | Ajay Banga x Nikhil Kamath | People by WTF · Nikhil Kamath
ALL-IN Insight
Friedberg: Dropping short-term rates will spike 30-year bond yields via inflation
“The problem is, as a lot of economists have talked about, and as we've seen in the bond market, is that that could Really push up the long end of the curve, because if you suddenly start to flood the market with capital in the short term by dropping rates toda…”
David Friedberg Aug 29, 2025 ▶ 19:38 Trump Takes On the Fed, US-Intel Deal, Why Bankruptcies Are Up, OpenAI's Longevity Breakthrough
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Bond market pressure is the only thing that will force austerity on Washington
“Probably the bond market forces it on the politicians, forces it on Washington.”
David Sacks May 24, 2025 ▶ 29:55 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Palihapitiya: Bond market will re-underwrite federal budget at 5% to 5.5%
“I think what's going to happen is the bond market will sensitize this budget at real rates. They're not going to use the 3.6 that Freebrook pointed to. They're just going to re underwrite this at five, five and a quarter, five and a half.”
Chamath Palihapitiya May 24, 2025 ▶ 31:49 Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO
ALL-IN Insight
Joe Lonsdale: Bond markets hate war because it is inflationary
“Bond markets hate war. War is expensive or is inflationary.”
Joe Lonsdale Mar 8, 2025 ▶ 1:10:18 Tariffs, Trump's Economic Endgame, Market Chaos, Bitcoin Reserve, CoreWeave IPO
ALL-IN Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sacks: Debt monetization will drive interest rates up and clobber equities and real estate
“If you're going to allow higher inflation, basically monetizing the debt, the bond markets are going to make the government pay higher interest rates on its debt, right? So we're going to be in a world of higher interest rates, which means that equities get cl…”
David Sacks Oct 25, 2024 ▶ 47:20 Markets turn Trump, Long rates spike, Election home stretch, Influencer mania, Saving Starbucks
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Leveraged loan defaults may soon exceed bond defaults, reversing historical norms
“So we think there's a probability that the default rate in the loan market might exceed that in the bond market. And the recovery rate in the loan market might be lower than that of the bond market, which is different than what it was in the past.”
Dave Brizano Sep 12, 2024 ▶ 33:12 David Breazzano - High Yields and Low Risk at Polen Capital (EP.405)
AMERICAN OPTIMIST Assertion Contradicted
Penner: Bond Market Had No Access Points Into Real Estate Before CMBS
“Up until that moment, the bond market had no active or access points, active participation or access points into real estate. And I kind of opened that door or built that bridge for that wealth of money to kind of come in and express itself into real estate.”
Ethan Penner May 23, 2024 ▶ 5:59 Ep 90: A Conversation with Wall Street Pioneer Ethan Penner · Joe Lonsdale
FOUNDER'S JOURNAL Assertion Partly supported
Gagliardi: The Bond Market Has Nine Million CUSIPs Versus 10,000 Stock Issues
“So the stock market has like 10,000 issues. The bond market has nine million individual CUSIPs.”
John Gagliardi Nov 2, 2023 ▶ 12:04 A Rewind for Your Money Matters: Season 4 Recap
Blitz: Market liquidity risks are underrated due to superficial intraday churn
“I think liquidity risks right now are underrated and underappreciated. There's a lot of optics of good liquidity in markets. But a lot of that liquidity, especially in equity markets, is just day trading back and forth, and if you need to get out of a fairly s…”
Adam Blitz May 29, 2023 ▶ 20:24 Hedge Fund Master Class – Craig Bergstrom, Adam Blitz, and Dan Fagan (Capital Allocators, EP.318)
ALL-IN Opinion
Friedberg warns of a 2008-style global capital flow freeze
“I think I mentioned a while ago that dollars were kind of locked up in March and then I went to this conference and people were like, yeah, we're loosening up and making a plan again in July because the market was kind of turning back up and now equity markets…”
David Friedberg Oct 1, 2022 ▶ 1:16:26 E98: Big tech starts making cuts, Fed incompetency, global debt, Russia/Ukraine & more
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jensen: Bond sell-off and rate rise will exceed market expectations
“I believe that's setting up a much bigger bond sell-off and interest rate rise than the markets are expecting.”
Greg Jensen Aug 12, 2021 ▶ 29:21 Greg Jensen – Bridgewater Associates (Manager Meetings, EP.06)
CAPITAL ALLOCATORS Assertion Supported
Mauboussin: Bond markets faced widespread bid-ask freezes in Q4 2018
“I think that came to the forefront in the fourth quarter of 2018. I think there were people that wanted to trade bonds that simply there weren't bids and offers out there for the most part.”
Michael Mauboussin Mar 23, 2020 ▶ 18:14 Michael Mauboussin – Consilient Observations in a Crisis (Capital Allocators, EP.127)
When a stock rallies but bonds fall, the bond market is right
“Let's look at trailing price momentum for the bonds and the stocks, and let's look at things where the stock went way up and the bonds went down. Who's right? Turns out, in those cases, that the bond market's right. The stock should come down.”
Dan Rasmussen Feb 17, 2020 ▶ 45:48 Dan Rasmussen – Private Equity Risk and Public Equity Opportunity at Verdad Advisers (First Meeting, EP.15)
PE Sponsors Will Not Subordinate Equity to Save Distressed Bondholders
“So they will be economic animals. They will look for the best return for the reward of what, for the risk they're taking, and there is no reason why they come in and just subordinate themselves to bonds and save the bond market.”
Peter Troob Jul 2, 2018 ▶ 22:06 Peter Troob – Monkey Business in High Yield (Capital Allocators, EP.59)

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