The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 43 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chen: Deep learning will outperform trained radiologists within five years
“It takes five years to train a radiologist, and in five years, deep learning will get better results than a trained radiologist, so we should stop training them right now.”
Hicks: DoD aims to field thousands of autonomous systems within 24 months
“Replicator's goal has always been simple and straightforward, to field thousands of attributable autonomous systems in multiple domains within 18 to 24 months, and to prove ways to burn down risk and rapidly and safely overcome barriers to scaling.”
Levine: Machine learning applications will execute at edge endpoints, not the cloud
“So the only way that we can look into an image or look into the massive amounts of data is with machine learning, and that machine learning, the algorithms and the applications employing machine learning will run at the end point. It's not going to be machine …”
Epoch AI: Anthropic and Amazon are building the first gigawatt data center
“For instance, we learned that the most likely candidate to have the first gigawatt scale data center is Anthropic, which would not have been my pick but Anthropic Amazon's New Carlisle Project Rainier development seems on track to come online in January follow…”
Andreessen: Paul Thomas Anderson's new Leonardo DiCaprio film will lose $120M
“So anyway, it, it's gonna do reasonably well because, you know, because it has Leo, but it's still gonna lose like a hundred, hundred and twenty million dollars are, you know, the estimates that I'm hearing, which is, you know, a pretty, pretty big loss you kn…”
Hicks: DoD is on track to meet August 2025 Replicator target
“I'm confident we're doing everything on track to get there. We're gonna meet that goal.”
Cuban: Cost Plus Drugs will publish all network and operational data
“We'll be publishing everything we do. And so you'll be able to copy what we do and use the same networks, et cetera.”
Hefets: The housing downturn will wipe out gains from 2020 to 2022
“What I do think is that we are going to wipe out some of the gains that were made in the last two to three years.”
Friedrich: Capping climate change under 2C by 2050 impossible without reduced meat intake
“According to Chatham House, the foremost think tank in Europe, it's a literal and scientific impossibility that we keep climate change under two degrees Celsius by 20 50. Unless meat consumption goes down, and right now it's going up.”
Chris Dixon: Television and sports programming will unbundle and move to mobile
“Video, you know, TV is going to move to the mobile phone. HBO has already gone unbundled. Sports is going to go unbundled.”
Peretti: Half of BuzzFeed's 2019 revenue will come outside of advertising
“He also predicted that in 2019, half of their revenue would come from outside of advertising.”
Song: Analysts project US housing construction pipeline will drop 50% by 2026
“And actually, analysts say that the pipeline is shrinking for twenty-twenty-six and beyond, so they said it's gonna drop by about 50%, so we're headed in the completely wrong direction.”
Neumann: Over 70% of adults under 35 rent, and that will grow
“70% of thirty-five-year-olds and youngers are currently renters. They don't actually buy, and this number is not because of the interest rates that have been going up over the past six to 10 months. This is a number from 12 months ago. And we believe that that…”
Ehrensvärd: Banks and US government services will support FIDO by 2018
“By end of this year I will be able to log in to several banks, to US government services, and none of these services share any information about how my keys used.”
Shankar: No major tech player will release consumer AR headsets before 2019
“Not to mention the consumer versions of these devices, whether Apple, Magic Leap, Hollins, none of the major AR players are releasing anything really until 2019 in terms of a consumer usable headset.”
Zipline's next hub puts all 11 million Rwandans 15 minutes from medicine
“This distribution center is serving about half of all the hospitals in Rwanda, and we are already planning a second distribution center, which will put every single one of the eleven million citizens within a 15 minute delivery of any essential medical product…”
Russell: Full-Stack Standalone VR Will Deliver 2x-4x Mobile VR Performance
“But basically they'll be able to get two to four X the performance of the gear VR based headsets with the same hardware because they'll own the full stack.”
Ludwin: First enterprise blockchain networks will launch in 2016
“You'll see the first few networks going live next year. And then I think by 2017, you'll start to see some of the first winners. In other words, you'll see that if you, by 2017, in a particular market, if you don't have a network running, then you're behind. Y…”
Benedict Evans: Global active smartphones will reach 5 to 6 billion
“Almost all of those will become smartphones in the next couple of years, or well over a billion are now, and so we'll go to two billion smartphones if you add in tablets, maybe two and a half, as opposed to three hundred million PCs, And we'll go to five to si…”
Evans predicts global hardware will settle at 4 to 5 billion smartphones
“There's probably two billion smartphones on earth today, maybe two and a half billion, and the great majority of those mobile phones will convert. And so we'll end up with something like one and a half billion PCs and four to five billion smartphones and those…”
Chen: EV manufacturing costs will match gas cars by 2025 without subsidies
“Most analysts assume that electric cars will be as cheap to produce as gas-powered cars with no government subsidies by twenty-twenty-five.”
Evans: Over four billion adults globally will own smartphones by 2020
“That means that by 20 20 of about seven billion people on earth and a bit over five billion adults, over four billion will have a mobile phone, and almost all of those will have converted to a smartphone”
Hadrian will launch two 500,000-square-foot manufacturing facilities next year
“We built a 100,000 square foot in LA, and then we're going to launch two new facilities next year, which are about half a million square foot each, and then we'll keep expanding to every state”
Andreessen: Oppenheimer will top $1 billion and sweep the Oscars
“Look, Oppenheimer, I think is going to top a billion dollars in the box office and is like, you know, a fantastic success and is going to sweep the Oscars and so forth.”
Appenzeller: Future AI models will combine broad pre-training with private fine-tuning
“If I have to guess, I think the future will be that we'll, we'll still train on all the data we can find, right? And then maybe you fine tune, meaning you sort of do some additional training on a particular problem domain with your private data, if that makes …”
Boyle: U.S. CS and engineering degrees will surpass liberal arts in 2023
“In 2010, if you looked at the number of degrees that were awarded, ah, across U.S. Colleges, there were four times as many liberal arts degrees awarded to students as there were engineering degrees or computer science. That is, there, in 20, or 23, that will f…”
Gedmark: Astranis launching satellites for Alaska and Peru in 2023
“We're launching our first satellite in a couple months for the U.S. State of Alaska and then shortly after that we'll be launching another satellite for Peru”
Pathak: Newly chartered US banks face two years of regulatory restrictions
“And based on the current regulations if they stay the way they are it puts, even if someone were to become a new bank today, for next two years, they would be pretty much kind of in a restricted category with the Fed and also with the FDIC.”
Carrocchio: Global esports revenue will surpass $1 billion in 2019
“This year, global revenue will surpass one billion dollars, having been less than half a billion a mere three years ago.”
Evans: Rollable TVs will hit the consumer market by 2022
“In two and three years time, you will be able to buy something that's three foot long. You put it on a shelf. When you want to watch TV, you press a button and a TV is there five seconds later.”
Pretorius: USCIS likely to suspend H-1B cap premium processing again
“I think it's pretty safe to say for actual cap, based on what they've done the last two years, it's probably likely there's going to be some suspend, some suspension of that, whether it's before or they announce it right after, you know, cap season kicks off, …”
Shankar: AR headset prices will exceed $1,000 for the next three years
“We're talking about price points that are north of a thousand dollars for the foreseeable future, for the next two to three years.”
Cordova: Quantum hardware will be hosted in cloud data centers, not on-premise
“So you never really, at least in the early days, want to ever put those things, on a customer site, you want to put them in a secure facility someplace and provide cloud access or remote access to them.”
Frank Chen: Self-driving safety will be judged by accidents per million miles
“And at the end of the day, what we're gonna judge cars on is Accidents per million miles driven, right? Just like you drudge humans.”
Chad Rigetti: Neuromorphic chips will soon be in mobile handsets
“We're talking about neuromorphic chips in individual handsets being available soon for machine learning.”
Unicode Considers Annual Emoji Expansions Unsustainable, Foresees Inline Images
“Emoji probably won't ever have that amount of, like, customization, and Unicode gets this, and they'll, they actually say, like, we're adding, like, 60 emoji a year. This is unsustainable. We feel like the future is inline images”
Evans: Apple will capture the top 15% of global mobile users
“Apple's gonna have the top 15% 10 to 15% of all the mobile phone users on earth, and Android will have most of the rest.”
Yoram Novak: Commodity flash storage and software will replace disk drives
“Flash is definitely going to take over. Again, power cooling and especially performance of flash, even if reliability is not there. And software is going to bridge the gap and basically provide the performance that you need with the reliability that you need a…”
Evans: Android's next billion users will not raise average app spending
“It's going to go from one billion users to two or three billion users in the next couple of years, but those are not going to be people who are going to raise the average.”
Liu: Consumer platforms will integrate crypto into loyalty programs within a year
“And so I think over the next year, we're going to see a number of those things to be proven out. And what we've already at least heard is that what was, I think Starbucks talked about maybe integrating blockchain to the loyalty program. Rakuten, which is, you …”
Chan: China's online education market to hit 300M users by 2020
“IResearch says that right now online education in China is a hundred fifty million users and expected to grow to nearly three hundred million by year 2020. It's a forty billion dollar industry expected to grow to seventy billion dollars.”
Dalio: Planning an app to crowdsource and vote on decision-making principles
“What I'm planning to do is to get the best principles from everybody and then make that all available on an app in which then people can then vote up what are the best principles for that particular thing that they're encountering, and so then when that thing …”