The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 5,176 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Karp: Displacing jobs without supporting defense will lead to tech nationalization
“If Silicon Valley believes we are going to take away everyone's white collar job, Meaning primarily democratic shaped people met whom I grew up with, highly educated people who went to elite schools or went to schools that are almost elite who vote for one par…”
Andreessen: US institutions recruit African immigrants to avoid hiring African Americans
“Both the universities and the corporate employers are literally, this is true, they're literally, they literally import Africans so that they don't have to hire African Americans because they still count as black.”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will drive global professional wages toward $20K equilibrium
“If you've got, let's say, a lawyer who's making 200 K a year in the US or a doctor in the West, and then you've got somebody from the Philippines or India or anywhere in the world who's making currently 2000 dollars a year, maybe the converged wage with AI plu…”
Andreessen: Big Tech is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture against startups
“Quite honestly, I mean, part of what's happening is big tech is against us. There, there's a, there's basically a lot of the political issues now are a civil war inside the tech industry where, The big tech companies are lobbying very aggressively for what the…”
Andreessen: Vinod Khosla lobbied Congress to ban open-source AI
“Vinod has been lobbying to ban open source AI. And by the way, he denies that he's been doing this, but I saw him with my own eyes when the US Congressional China Committee came to Stanford I was in the meeting where he was with, you know, 30 20 or 30 congress…”
Horowitz: Scientists absolutely knew COVID-19 originated from a lab leak
“The lab leak was a great example of that. The, you know, people absolutely knew as a lab leak, the scientists absolutely knew as a lab leak, but for the greater good we're going to say it was not.”
Andreessen: Automated and AI-augmented warfare will make conflict much safer
“I actually think warfare is going to get a lot safer. Like, I think, actually, automated warfare would be much, much safer.”
Balaji Srinivasan: The FDA caused one million preventable COVID-19 deaths
“And you could have avoided like a million dead. That million dead is on the FDA's head, like, because challenge trials could have been done, you know?”
Harari: Superior algorithms will render democracy and free markets completely obsolete
“And once you have an external entity, An algorithm that knows me better than I know myself. This is the real turning point. This is the point when individualism as we've known, it doesn't make any sense when democracy in the free market become completely obsol…”
Paul Krugman predicts most crypto projects will look like Pets.com by 2033
“My guess is, however, that I think I don't actually believe that we're at the dawn of a new age. I actually believe that we're at the that that most of this 10 years back, 15 years, 15 years from now, it will look a lot like Pets.com.”
Marc Rowan predicts disastrous returns for private equity enterprise software deals
“I personally expect the returns from private equity in the ground to be disastrous. Because so much of exposure is to enterprise software, and this does not mean that enterprise software companies are going out of business. Far from it. It means that the prosp…”
Andreessen: Police Reform and Defund Movements Caused Massive Crime Waves
“All these, like, you know, crime policy reform, defund the police things, and that causes these massive crime waves, and then, of course, low-income and minority people get hit hardest by that”
Isaacman: China's moon schedule is potentially within a year of NASA's
“Regardless if we had a rival that is, again, within potentially a year of our schedule on this, it is still, the changes we announced last week is still in the correct direction.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase and MicroStrategy will likely be seized
“Like, will all the centralized Bitcoin on Coinbase's servers, Sailor servers, et cetera, get seized? I think it's quite likely. I think it eventually gets seized in some exigent circumstance.”
Jennings: Block engineers no longer write code by hand
“I mean, we're like, we're not writing code by hand anymore. That's over. That's done.”
Michael: AI vendor questioned software use in Maduro raid
“And then second, after the Maduro raid, one of the primary vendor for this had raised the question, senior exec about whether their software was used during the Maduro raid, which is one of the most successful op military, military operations of our lifetime. …”
Perret: Financial fraud is currently the largest practical use case for AI
“It turns out the biggest use case for AI is fraudsters committing fraud against financial services companies.”
Epoch AI: Human-level AI means 30% GDP growth or human extinction
“Assuming in the next 10 years we get AI that is capable of doing any remote job as well as any human. I think, you know, 30% GDP growth seems like a lower bound on something that's reasonable. Assuming you get, this is a big assumption that a lot of people are…”
Adam D'Angelo: LLMs will perform all human tasks cheaper within 5-15 years
“I do think at some point you get to LMs can, they can do Everything, every single thing a human can do for cheaper. Like, I don't see a reason why we don't eventually get there. That may take five, 1015 years.”
Andreessen: Biden officials explicitly told a16z they planned to ban open-source AI
“They told us that explicitly. And yeah. And they told us exactly what you just said. They told us they're gonna ban open source. And when we challenged them on the ability to ban open source, because it's, you know, we're talking about, you know, math, you kno…”
Masad: Laypersons will soon match senior Google software engineers via AI
“I think that the lay person will be as good as a what a senior software engineer that works at Google is today. So I think that's happening very soon.”
Keith Rabois predicts ChatGPT will become a multi-trillion dollar monopoly
“I think ChatGBT becomes a monopoly. It's the fastest growing consumer product of all time. It is transforming how everybody, every normal person basically does their work, runs their life. And so that product alone is a several trillion dollar company.”
Altman: Society will deem AI training fair use but create IP licensing models
“So like, you'll see this continue to move, but forced guests from the position we're in today, I would say that society decides training is fair use, but There's a new model for generating content in the style of or with the IPF or something else.”
Andreessen: General-purpose robotics will be the world's largest industry within a decade
“Like, the general purpose robotics Thing is going to happen, and it's going to happen in the next decade, and it's going to happen at giant scale, and I think there's a plausible argument, which Elon also believes, that robotics is going to be the biggest indu…”
U.S. military can no longer move assets domestically uncontested
“In this age of contested logistics with hypersonic missiles and cyber and space, you know, threats, our ability not just to operate abroad, but just to be able to leave our own ports and to be able to move rail and everything uncontested no longer exists. It p…”
Horowitz: Gensler and Warren refused to meet with a16z on crypto policy
“They didn't, ah, even say anything out loud, but they would not take a meeting with us, like, you know, none of the people in charge of those agencies, Gary Gensler, wouldn't meet with us, Elizabeth Warren, wouldn't meet with, like, nobody to even hear why we …”
Andreessen: EA doomers and dark money spent years infiltrating Washington on AI
“The doomers you know, the sort of doomers, the EA people, the sort of billionaire dark, dark shadowy money billionaires sort of playing, playing, playing in the, in, in this area trying to do various kind of nefarious things you know, had actually infiltrated …”
Andreessen: Venture capital will end under Biden's proposed unrealized gains tax
“And then number two, venture capital just ends. It's just over. Like firms like ours just like don't exist.”
Horowitz: AI economic value will accrue to tools, not base models
“The actual layer where the value is gonna crew is gonna be like tools, orchestration, that kind of thing, because you can just plug in whatever the best model is at the time. Whereas the models are gonna be competing, you know, in a death battle with each othe…”
Horowitz: 50 years of affirmative action failed to help African Americans
“I think, look, I think it's clearly not working also in the, yeah, I mean, they were there, you know, with the kind of ruling on affirmative action, there were so many studies that showed that It didn't actually help African-Americans. 50 years, you know, forg…”
Robbins: SSRI antidepressant medications do not work
“They don't work, and yet we still sell them for some reason.”
Flanagan: The AI platform shift favors incumbents over standalone point solutions
“And we've seen like AI may be one of the few platform shifts that actually skews towards the monopolies and conglomerates versus like these individual Companies who just get sucked up and there are features of these existing platforms that get kind of skews to…”
Luckey: U.S. Suffers Severe Disadvantages in Almost All Simulated China War Games
“And the result of this is that today, in almost every war game that the United States simulates against China or their proxies, the United States, ah, if we don't lose, certainly end up in a very, very bad situation.”
Power: U.S. would take 5 years to rebuild exhausted ballistics inventory
“But if we have one conflict with China where we expand most of our ballistics inventory, We might not be able to remake it for like five years. Then we're basically standing around, you know, with our hands tied behind our backs.”
Strange: Nearly every company will become a financial services company
“And that's because in the not too distant future, nearly every company will be a financial services company and get a significant portion of their revenue from financial services.”
Allison: Maintaining current US-China policies will likely result in war
“Business as usual in the relationship between the US and China will likely produce history as usual.”
Morell: Intelligence Case for Iraq WMDs Was Stronger Than Bin Laden Case
“And the punchline, right, the punchline was, Mr. President the case that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction was stronger than the case that Bin Laden is. You could hear a pin drop in the Situation Room, and it was true, right?”
Harari: Corporations and governments will soon understand individuals better than themselves
“What we will see with regard to the individual is that at a certain point, external entities, whether it's corporations or whether it's governments, they will have enough data, especially biometric data, and enough computing power to be able to understand me b…”
Carter: Chinese state-sponsored cyber aggressors are smart and largely unopposed in US
“Jim Comey is basically telling the truth. The Chinese government-sponsored and at kind of one arm's length proxy I.T. Aggressor, ah, services are large, they're smart and they're largely unopposed in this country”
Krugman: Significant probability Bitcoin's value eventually drops to zero
“Now, I'm not a hundred percent sure of that, but maybe, ah, ah, but I think that there's a certainly a, I would say a quite significant probability that the whole thing just drops to zero, ah, because I have not yet seen any reason why this has to be a valuabl…”
Pande: Cancer could easily not exist in 10 years
“Cancer could easily just not exist in 10 years, and that's due to this change in how we think about things, and there's all these things on the back end.”
Verdian: Only 20 of 3,000 US VC firms consistently returned 3x net
“Like, we've looked at the data of 3000 venture capital firms in the U.S. Only 20 have achieved consistent three X net returns over the last two decades.”
Chi: Meta Llama 4 Underperformed on Private Benchmarks Despite Public Scores
“One of the early indications of that you saw was when Meta released Lama four that was a bit of a disaster, and interestingly, what we saw is that on our held out private benchmarks, the model is actually underperforming, but on all of the major public benchma…”
Starship Reusability Drops Orbital Compute Launch Costs Under $1B per Gigawatt
“What you have to compare it to is the cost of launch, and with Starship reusability, that goes to under a billion, so the economics just instantly flip.”
Tan: Companies can reach $15M ARR in four months with two people
“Literally, you can go from zero to 15 mil ARR in about four months with, like, two or three people and, like, hundreds of agents. Like, you know, a few hundred skill files.”
Massa: Kavak AI sales agents convert 2.1x better than human teams
“And it, at first it converted, like, 50% more than our human team, and now it's converting over that, like, 2.1 x more.”