The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 249 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Sacks: US will eventually pass federal AI regulatory preemption
“I think we will eventually get some federal preemption, and I think the question will just again be whether we preempt heavy or preempt light.”
Andreessen: Extreme AI infrastructure shortages will abate within five years
“NVIDIA has like, you know, the best position probably anybody's ever had in chips, but notwithstanding that, I find it hard to believe that there's going to be this level of pressure on infrastructure in five years.”
Horowitz: Power or cooling bottlenecks will trigger an AI chip glut
“Yeah, and even if the bottleneck within the infrastructure moves, so if it becomes power, if it becomes cooling or anything else, then you'll have a chip glut for sure, yeah.”
Baker: Frontier AI lab gross margins will stay structurally below SaaS
“And the nature of AI because of scaling laws, Richard Sutton's the better listen they're just more compute intensive. So their gross margins are structurally going to be lower. But that doesn't mean they can't be great businesses. I just, I think it's going to…”
Baker: Major custom AI ASIC programs will be canceled within three years
“In the next three years, I think you'll see a bunch of high-profile ASIC programs canceled, especially if Google starts selling TPUs externally, which has been all over X.”
Rampell: Rumors suggest Google DeepMind will solve the Navier-Stokes equation
“There's a rumor that the Navier-Stokes equation is going to be solved by DeepMind, which would be huge.”
Andreessen: AI will eventually generate a full movie adaptation of Atlas Shrugged
“Maybe what we need is the AI system where you feed the novel and it makes the movie. You know, which, by the way, first, you know, now, now that I say that, like, for sure that's gonna happen.”
Keith Rabois predicts iPhones won't be primary computing devices in 10 years
“Where are we going to be using, you know, your iPhone as your personal computing device five years out? Maybe. 10 years out, almost surely not.”
Bhattacharya: NIH will judge senior researchers' grant applications on mentorship quality
“And I'm gonna start to evaluate Long established investigators, because I think, I do believe they play a pretty fundamental role still but in the, in, in, in, like, how well do they advance the careers of the early career investigators that work with them, ri…”
Patel: Hyperscaler CapEx will reach $450B-$500B next year
“And my number is closer to, like, it's like four 5500 and that's based on, like, you know, all the research we do on, like, data centers and, like, tracking each individual data center in the supply chains, right?”
Mark Cuban predicts net total jobs will not decrease due to AI
“And they, and that's, you know, going back to what I said earlier, there will be disintermediation, but I don't think the net number of jobs is going to decrease.”
Horowitz: Andreessen Horowitz will never expand into private equity
“So there, there's nothing about what they do that would make them good at what we do. And there's nothing about what we do that would make us good at what they do. So like, I think, you know, we'll never get into that realm.”
Song: Brookfield Properties uses EliseAI to let one employee manage 10,000 units
“Brookfield properties is another one of our customers. They're building this centralized model that enables a single employee to serve as multiple properties. And they're actually finding that they can get a single employee to work across 10,000 units using AI…”
Patel: AI data centers will consume 10% of US electricity by 2030
“Even by the end of the decade you know, the US will be like, 10% of our power will be AI data centers”
Bornstein: AI developer tools will increase, not shrink, software engineering headcount
“I think the best way to think about this is simply that we're going to have more developers. I think it's very unlikely that like we're going to shrink development teams because we have amazing new tools. Like that's just kind of not how these markets have wor…”
Sinofsky: Best-selling novels will be AI-generated within a few years
“Absolutely. A hundred percent. A hundred, and I think, I don't think Stephen King is going to do that, and, but I think there'll be some new writer who will probably write it under a pseudonym, and a year after the novel is written and has been made into a mov…”
Neumann: Flow Parent Company Has Closed Fundraising for Outside Capital
“We talk about raising money for real estate funds. We're not talking about raising money for flow parent company that that door is closed.”
Wolf: 90% of healthcare will soon be delivered at home via phones
“90% of health care is going to be delivered probably from your phone and in your home.”
Sankar: SpaceX Starship heavy reuse will reduce launch costs to $10-$20/kg
“The shuttle used to cost 50,000 dollars a kilogram to get to orbit. Cheaper mechanisms we had were like 20,000 dollars a kilogram. And with Starship heavy reuse, we're talking about 10 to 20 bucks.”
Ian Webster: xAI's Grok shows lowest censorship on Chinese political topics
“And then this is probably not surprising, but there's, there is one large foundation model that does especially well on the censorship benchmark, which is Grok from XAI is, is like a relatively free model. When it comes to the sensitive Chinese political topic…”
Sheriff McMahill: West Las Vegas had a 0% homicide clearance rate in 2010
“When I was working in 2010 as the captain of West Las Vegas, predominantly black part of town we had about 13 homicides. The solve rate was exactly, guess, zero. Not a single homicide had been solved.”
Andreessen: Training future frontier AI models will cost $1 billion
“We all think that the big models are going to end up costing a billion, you know, and up in the, in, in the future.”
Sramek: California Forever homes will cost $1M vs $4-5M in Palo Alto
“And then imagine that instead of paying four or five million dollars for a mediocre home in Palo Alto or San Francisco, your employees would be able to buy a nice house for a million dollars.”
Sramek: California Forever targets breaking ground in Solano County by 2027
“Our target is to break ground in twenty-twenty-seven. That is ambitious by California standards. A couple of things have to happen for that to be the case. But we're pretty optimistic that we would be able to do that.”
Andreessen: University tuition will reach $1 million per student within 10 years
“We'll, we'll have a follow-up to this podcast, you know, five or 10 years from now, and it'll have crossed the million dollar mark, right? Per student.”
Andreessen: AI desktop software will generate full movies directly from screenplays
“Within some number of years here, short, I think relatively short number of years, you're gonna have a tool on your laptop, right, that basically is, is like, you work with it, you basically write your script, you know, kind of with AI, and then as you're writ…”
Andreessen: Producing full-length movies on laptops will be viable within five years
“It ought to be possible here within a couple years you know, to make entire full-length movies, you know, basically on your laptop, completely produced, you know, with, like, whatever actors superimposed into the thing, like, a couple years I don't know, I'd s…”
Koller: Insitro will deliver AI-discovered medicines to patients by 2030
“The hope is that by the end of the Of this decade, we will have built this process, we will have run through it a number of times, we will have delivered some medicines to patients in our first tranche of indications, but then we will have learned enough from …”
Consumers will regularly fly on electric airplanes within 15 years
“And to the point of mass adoption, a hundred percent, I firmly believe in the next 10 to 15 years, we will all be flying regularly on electric airplanes.”
Gallagher: AUKUS submarines won't patrol Pacific until late 2030s at best
“Nuclear submarines you know, built and operated by the Aussies with our help are not gonna be patrolling the Pacific until, the late 20 thirties at best.”
Pande: The world's largest company will be in consumer health tech
“The biggest company in the world will be a consumer health tech company.”
Viable animal-to-human organ xenotransplantation will arrive within 10 to 20 years
“I think a couple of things will likely come. I think xenotransplantation, I mean, which has been in and out and worked on. And what's interesting is every one of these comes up and down. So, you know, gene therapies, cell therapies popped up in the nineties, k…”
Andreessen: Wearable sensors will predict heart attacks within 5 to 10 years
“I think we'll have a full complement of medical grade sensors on, you know, on our bodies in a way that we have chosen to over the next five or 10 years. And I think we're, I think we'll get to the point where we're gonna be able to do things like predict hear…”
Andreessen: Winning tech companies in 20 years will be 100x larger than Google
“The winning companies, you know, the winning entrepreneurial companies 20 years from now that win are going to be Staggeringly large. Like, they're going to be like, I don't know, 10 or a hundred times the size of Google and Facebook.”
Akella: Total factory job replacement by robots is multiple lifetimes away
“So if you do this math and you take the three forty million, roughly divided by six jobs per, you're looking at sixty million robots before you can wipe out all of mankind in any production facility. It ain't gonna happen in my lifetime. I don't see it happeni…”
Growing a mammoth in an artificial womb is over a decade away
“And it's, you know, 200 pounds at the end of it, and you're going to do all that like really complex fine-tuning, maternal fine-tuning, like hormonal work, In this huge closet-sized tank, like, that is, that's more than 10 years away.”
Levinson: China's growth will slow to a couple percent annually
“But China's not going to grow at 10% a year for the next Half century. It's becoming much more like a normal, mature economy in which the growth rate is a couple of percent a year, and that's all they're going to be able to expect.”
Rigetti: Quantum computers capable of breaking RSA encryption are 20-30 years away
“We're probably 20 to 30 years away from having a machine that would really be able to run Shore's algorithm on Wall Street. On practically relevant problem sizes. At some point in the future, quantum computers will be able to crack RSA encryption.”
Harari: AI will surpass humans at diagnosing human emotions
“It will have much better sources of data coming from within your body. So their ability to diagnose emotions will be better than the ability of most, if not all humans.”
Ross: The world's next trillion-dollar industry will come from genetic code
“You know, the world's last trillion dollar industry was created out of computer code. I think the world's next trillion dollar industry is going to be created out of genetic code.”
Rampell: US will eventually cap credit card interchange fees
“I think it's going to happen in the U.S. Eventually.”
Ludwin: Bitcoin will never go away as long as the internet exists
“Bitcoin is never going to go away. It will, Bitcoin will never go away. It will live on for as long as the internet lives on.”
Ludwin: Post-trade clearing and settlement functions will disappear
“So if money moves over IP and all assets move over IP, we don't actually need as many of the clearing and settlement functions that we currently use today. Because they exist For the fact that we're just, you know, today we send digital messages, but then ther…”
Andreessen: Hedge funds will buy and own autonomous car fleets
“I think self-driving cars are actually gonna be, I think they're actually gonna be owned by hedge funds. So I guarantee they're not going to want to take responsibility. So I think what's going to happen is hedge funds are going to spend a billion dollars and …”
Butterfield: Heavy email usage will continue for at least 30-40 years
“And I want to just stress, because we get this in headlines quite a bit, that we want to be an email killer. Not going away. We've got, you know, at least three or four decades left of heavy email uses because it is lowest common denominator, and I mean that i…”
Andreessen: Future top tech companies will almost certainly be new startups
“The expectation of Detroit is that 50 years from now the three big car companies will be Ford, GM, and Chrysler, right? The expectation of Silicon Valley is the opposite. Like we don't know who the big three tech companies are going to be, but they're almost c…”