The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9,830 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Robbins: Stanford study found his program eliminated depression in 100% of participants
“100% of the people that they put through this program after six weeks had zero expressions of depression.”
Flanagan: The AI platform shift favors incumbents over standalone point solutions
“And we've seen like AI may be one of the few platform shifts that actually skews towards the monopolies and conglomerates versus like these individual Companies who just get sucked up and there are features of these existing platforms that get kind of skews to…”
State bar association threatened DoNotPay with prosecution over AI lawyer
“Another state bar association actually threatened us. And they said that if you do it, it's against the rules and we'll prosecute you for unauthorized practice of law.”
Luckey: U.S. Suffers Severe Disadvantages in Almost All Simulated China War Games
“And the result of this is that today, in almost every war game that the United States simulates against China or their proxies, the United States, ah, if we don't lose, certainly end up in a very, very bad situation.”
Power: U.S. would take 5 years to rebuild exhausted ballistics inventory
“But if we have one conflict with China where we expand most of our ballistics inventory, We might not be able to remake it for like five years. Then we're basically standing around, you know, with our hands tied behind our backs.”
Chris Power claims 90% of US solar panels use Chinese slave labor
“90% of the solar panels in the country are being made in China by basically slave labor where millions of minority and immigrant women are being chemically castrated every year and forced into servitude.”
Strange: Nearly every company will become a financial services company
“And that's because in the not too distant future, nearly every company will be a financial services company and get a significant portion of their revenue from financial services.”
Dapper Dan: Gucci copied his 1980s Diane Dixon jacket design
“Gucci created this jacket that I created in the eighties for Diane Dixon.”
Allison: Maintaining current US-China policies will likely result in war
“Business as usual in the relationship between the US and China will likely produce history as usual.”
Morell: Intelligence Case for Iraq WMDs Was Stronger Than Bin Laden Case
“And the punchline, right, the punchline was, Mr. President the case that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction was stronger than the case that Bin Laden is. You could hear a pin drop in the Situation Room, and it was true, right?”
Harari: Corporations and governments will soon understand individuals better than themselves
“What we will see with regard to the individual is that at a certain point, external entities, whether it's corporations or whether it's governments, they will have enough data, especially biometric data, and enough computing power to be able to understand me b…”
Ross: Declassified US estimate puts Chinese cyber IP theft above $300B annually
“When I was in government, we declassified a national intelligence estimate, which we tend not to do. Well, we declassified a national intelligence estimate that actually put a number on the amount of intellectual property theft taking place because of cyber at…”
Ross: Iranians repurposed US malware to destroy 30,000 Saudi Aramco computers
“I've seen evidence that the malware that the United States is alleged to have used against Iran it looks like, if you look at the code base, it looks like Much of that code was used by the Iranians against the Saudis in attack, in an attack against Saudi Aramc…”
Carter: Chinese state-sponsored cyber aggressors are smart and largely unopposed in US
“Jim Comey is basically telling the truth. The Chinese government-sponsored and at kind of one arm's length proxy I.T. Aggressor, ah, services are large, they're smart and they're largely unopposed in this country”
Krugman: Significant probability Bitcoin's value eventually drops to zero
“Now, I'm not a hundred percent sure of that, but maybe, ah, ah, but I think that there's a certainly a, I would say a quite significant probability that the whole thing just drops to zero, ah, because I have not yet seen any reason why this has to be a valuabl…”
Pande: Cancer could easily not exist in 10 years
“Cancer could easily just not exist in 10 years, and that's due to this change in how we think about things, and there's all these things on the back end.”
Verdian: Only 20 of 3,000 US VC firms consistently returned 3x net
“Like, we've looked at the data of 3000 venture capital firms in the U.S. Only 20 have achieved consistent three X net returns over the last two decades.”
Chi: Meta Llama 4 Underperformed on Private Benchmarks Despite Public Scores
“One of the early indications of that you saw was when Meta released Lama four that was a bit of a disaster, and interestingly, what we saw is that on our held out private benchmarks, the model is actually underperforming, but on all of the major public benchma…”
Bancel: Moderna's mRNA shot is the first cancer vaccine that works
“Here it's the first time there is a cancer vaccine working. The field, as you know, has been doing that for 20 plus years. I think more than a thousand clinical trials that have all failed.”
Starship Reusability Drops Orbital Compute Launch Costs Under $1B per Gigawatt
“What you have to compare it to is the cost of launch, and with Starship reusability, that goes to under a billion, so the economics just instantly flip.”
Musk and Huang Co-Designed an Orbital NVIDIA Rubin Rack for 2027
“Elon said that he and Jensen have co-designed a Reuben rack. And there, it's gonna launch in the fourth quarter of 27.”
Gaybrick: Global Software Engineers Will Increase Despite AI Efficiencies
“And so I think there will be more software engineers in the world.
we will need few of that, fewer of them to do the things we're already doing.”
Tan: Companies can reach $15M ARR in four months with two people
“Literally, you can go from zero to 15 mil ARR in about four months with, like, two or three people and, like, hundreds of agents. Like, you know, a few hundred skill files.”
Tan: San Francisco ABC affiliate refused to cover anti-Asian hate crimes
“ABC News you know, literally the mainstream media TV channel of San Francisco and the Bay Area would not cover anti-Chinese and anti-Asian crime.”
Massa: Kavak AI sales agents convert 2.1x better than human teams
“And it, at first it converted, like, 50% more than our human team, and now it's converting over that, like, 2.1 x more.”
Massa: AI will likely be capable of CEO roles by 2035
“Is, is AI going to be able to do this job, like even the CEO job or jobs where the leadership is? And the answer honestly is probably yes. Like in 2035 with a rate of improvement, it will be able to do so.”
Massa: Kavak Uses AI Agents as Managers Over Human Workers
“And then if you look at Kavak now, any process, it's really a collaboration of, Agents and humans, and sometimes like agents are the bosses or of humans, and sometimes humans are designing the agents.”
Zhang: Decagon's most recent customer churned from competitor Sierra
“Our most recent customer actually turned off of Sierra to come to Decagon”
Kalanick continues to stand by every decision he made at Uber
“I continue to stand by every decision I made at Uber.”
Horowitz: Norway's unrealized capital gains tax ended its tech ecosystem
“And so I think Norway introduced a unrealized capital gains tax, and that, that kind of effectively ended the tech ecosystem there.”
George: Anthropic and OpenAI add more monthly revenue than tech giants
“Anthropic and OpenAI are adding more revenue per month than Meta, Google, or Microsoft.”
David George: Anthropic and OpenAI combined run rate could hit $200B
“And I wouldn't be surprised if the combination of those two companies is doing two hundred billion of revenue run rate.”
David George: AI market is not currently in a bubble
“I feel pretty confident saying that we're not in a bubble right now.”
George: AI model companies are adding more revenue than public software combined
“The model companies are adding more than the entire public software universe in terms of revenue added, you know, combined.”
George: Top AI IPOs will individually exceed all recent VC IPOs combined
“We actually did a similar analysis where we looked at all of the VC backed IPOs that happened over the last six years. And if you sum all of them up, they're A little over a trillion dollars. Like that's probably gonna be smaller than any of the three of the l…”
George: AI coding assistant Cursor has reached billions in revenue
“Cursor, as an example, is, you know, billions of dollars of revenue. And they're very small, and it's very early in their life.”
Marc Rowan predicts blue-collar ascendancy and white-collar decline from AI
“What I've said previously is I think we're going to see a little bit of blue collar ascendancy and white collar decline.”
Rowan: Vast majority of UPenn donors reduced annual donations to $1
“Vast majority of donors decided to give the university a dollar per year versus whatever their donation was.”
Andreessen claims SPLC led debanking and cancellation programs for 15 years
“The SPLC specifically played a dominant role in the debanking and censorship and cancellation programs of the last 15 years.”
Andreessen: Coder role will disappear within 10 to 20 years
“I think it's entirely possible that we're sitting here in 10 years, you know, in 20 years or whatever, and like the, you know, the job of coder is gone, but you have this just, you know, extraordinary number of builders running around.”
Andreessen: Europe will fall further behind US by restricting AI
“Europe is, is going to run the opposite, you know, test, which is they're going to try to prevent all this from happening, and again, I think the data's already in there which is they're, you know, they're, they've been falling very badly behind economically, …”
Horowitz: Anthropic's defense deal collapsed because they wanted out, not philosophy
“If you understand deals, particularly software deals, you realize that that deal did not fall apart because of philosophical differences. It fell apart because anthropic wanted out of the deal.”
Horowitz predicts AI will cure cancer, end traffic deaths, and eliminate poverty
“Not just we can, we're gonna end traffic deaths. We're gonna cure cancer. We'll, we're gonna end poverty, as we know it.”
Isaacman: NASA will return to Moon before end of Trump's term
“NASA has stated we will achieve the national imperative to return, ah, to the moon and establish an enduring presence before the end of President Trump's term.”
Rogers: Previous administration pressured Twitter and Meta to censor posts
“Under the prior administration included things like global engagement center censorship efforts that were the subject of the Murphy Supreme Court litigation, where the State Department Along with other organs of the executive branch would contact Twitter or Me…”
Rogers: State Department shifts digital freedom policy toward VPNs and Community Notes
“Like, that was the kind of thing that was countenanced before that's not countenanced now, and we're much friendlier to initiatives like censorship circumvention VPNs and to initiatives like X's Community Notes that put that power in the hands of the users or …”
Rogers: EU official Thierry Breton threatened Elon Musk over Trump interview
“I think, you know, one key moment in August, 20, 24 was when a now former EC European Commission official, Terry Breton, Sent a letter to Elon Musk threatening him with regulatory penalties if he aired an upcoming interview on X with then presidential candidat…”
Levie: AI code generation will increase software complexity and engineering jobs
“The funniest concept that the more code we write, the less we would need engineers would be the opposite because now your systems are even more complex than before, which means that you're going to be running into even more challenges of when you need to do a …”