Amazon

includes Amazon Web Services, Amazon Alexa, Amazon Prime, Amazon Echo, Amazon S3, Amazon Mechanical Turk, Amazon Kindle, Amazon India, Amazon EC2, Amazon Fresh, Amazon Go, Amazon Redshift and 13 more

161 statements across 98 episodes · 64 bullish · 39 bearish · 58 people on the record · first statement Jul 15, 2017 by Benedict Evans · said 1,447 times in 353 episodes since 2017 · across every show →

Mentions by year, the whole family

brought up most by Benedict Evans (202), Alex Rampell (95), Michael Copeland (74), Ben Horowitz (71), Sonal Chokshi (70), Steven Sinofsky (59), Chris Dixon (58), Marc Andreessen (45)

tap a year for its mentions
005001001,0002002017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions
01002002017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodes it came up in
00310062002017201820192020202120222023202420252026episodesmentions per episode
2026 71 mentions in 25 episodes 3 per episode
2025 193 mentions in 46 episodes 4 per episode
2024 47 mentions in 14 episodes 3 per episode
2023 52 mentions in 22 episodes 2 per episode
2022 23 mentions in 4 episodes 6 per episode
2021 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2020 10 mentions in 5 episodes 2 per episode
2019 888 mentions in 195 episodes 5 per episode
2018 58 mentions in 19 episodes 3 per episode
2017 103 mentions in 21 episodes 5 per episode

every mention, scene by scene, with the transcript →

Everything said about Amazon, oldest first

Jul 15, 2017 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Combined GAFA revenues remain smaller than TV and advertising
“Even Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon combined there, or GAFA, as the telecoms industry tends to call them add up to less than TV business or advertising and are much, much smaller than mobile or proper, proper industries like cars or clothes.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 8:55 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Tech brands comprise 40% of top 100 global brand value
“So technology brands are now 40% of the value of the top 100 brands. Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon are almost 20%.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 7:38 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Assertion Supported
Evans: Amazon represents just 1% of the US retail market in 2014
“Incidentally, Amazon only has one percent of the entire US retail industry so far, so that opportunity has quite a way to go, so they probably won't bother making a profit. For quite a way as well.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 10:36 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Jul 15, 2017 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Amazon accounts for only 1.5% of US retail revenue
“Amazon only has about one and a half percent of the entire US retail industry by revenue excluding automotive and gasoline and things like that.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 23:49 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Jul 15, 2017
Assertion Contradicted
SmartFarm edge appliance runs AWS and Google Cloud workloads locally
“Anything that runs in Amazon and anything that runs in the Google Cloud platform will run on this appliance.”
Chandra Krintz Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 10:36 Chandra Krintz
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Insight
Precision agriculture needs Amazon, Google, and Tinder-style analytics
“So in terms of analytics then, we need to make Amazon recommendations to farmers for things like irrigation scheduling or the application of inputs, fertilizers, pesticides, water. We need Google search for crop disease. We need Tinder for pests.”
Chandra Krintz Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:39 Chandra Krintz
Jul 15, 2017
Assertion Contradicted
Amazon required 10 to 50 times more employees than early eBay
“When, early on when I was managing eBay, Amazon had 10 times, 50 times more employees than we did, because they were building warehouses, they were picking out of their own warehouses, they were shipping, they were procuring merchandise, you know, the whole th…”
Jeff Jordan Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 10:19 Marketplaces
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Amazon marketplace gross margins reach 80% to 90% compared to 25% retail
“So Amazon's gross margins as a retailer are just around 25%. Their gross margin as a marketplace are 80, 90%.”
Jeff Jordan Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 8:48 Marketplaces
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Amazon's third-party marketplace volume surpassed its first-party retail volume
“And according to the analysts last year, Amazon sold more product from third parties than they did as a first party merchant.”
Jeff Jordan Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 8:30 Marketplaces
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Insight
Amazon marketplace profits fund aggressive expansion into new initiatives
“We believe that one of the key drivers of profitability in Amazon, and we believe the core businesses at Amazon are very, very profitable. Are the fact that they're layering on this high margin business on top of essentially close to a breakeven first party bu…”
Jeff Jordan Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 8:56 Marketplaces
Jul 15, 2017
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2017
Amazon and Yahoo failed to compete with early eBay auctions
“Both launched auction businesses to compete with eBay early in the day. And both quickly got a lot of supply because they listed it, there were no listing fees. They required no economics. And no consumers went. Both businesses were DOA, and they abandoned it …”
Jeff Jordan Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 2:12 Marketplaces
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Pande: Computational biology tasks requiring global computing power in 2000 run easily on AWS today
“What we could do 15 years ago required almost all the computers on the planet. Now that's something that we can do easily on something like Amazon.”
Vijay Pande Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 1:14 On Machine Learning in Medicine and More
Jul 15, 2017 bullish
Assertion Supported
Evans: Amazon is the fourth largest clothing retailer in the US
“Today, Amazon is the fourth largest clothes retailer in the USA, not the fourth largest online clothes retailer, the fourth largest clothes retailer.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 18:48 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 15, 2017 positive
Assertion Supported
Evans: Tech giants occupy the top five spots by market valuation
“Today, Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, and yes, Microsoft are all the five, are the five biggest companies on the stock exchange.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:26 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 15, 2017 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Big Tech annual capital expenditure reached $34 billion in 2015
“Annual capex across these companies has gone from one billion dollars in 2000 to thirty four billion dollars in 2015.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:44 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 15, 2017 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: E-commerce represents 10% to 12% of US retail revenue
“E-commerce is about 10 to 12% of US retail revenue, a little bit more in some other countries, a little bit less in some others. Amazon is at least two percent of that.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 18:18 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Jul 16, 2017 positive
Insight
Rampell: Amazon's Fire Phone was a smart move against app store fees
“Amazon, they built the Fire Phone. Which ended up being a flop, but it was a very, very smart move for Amazon to do because they realize if I'm Amazon and I want to go sell a book to somebody, I'm not allowed to do that through Apple or through Google unless I…”
Alex Rampell Jul 16, 2017 ▶ 17:21 What Happens When Mobile (Really) Hits the Wallet
Oct 26, 2017 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: Banking faces an Amazon moment as physical branches become anachronistic
“We really think the Amazon moment is coming to banking, and I'll talk a little bit more about why and how, but a lot of it is really, it's predicated or it's related to this idea of the physical location being a little bit more of an anachronism than a buildin…”
Alex Rampell Oct 26, 2017 ▶ 1:00 The Future of Money: Banking on Fintech
Dec 5, 2017 neutral
Insight
Evans: Dominant Tech Giants Always Look Invulnerable Right Before They Fall
“The winners always look invulnerable until they don't. So, IBM looked invulnerable, then Microsoft, Intel, Nokia did, then the internet giants of the last bubble, now Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon look invulnerable, but all the previous ones fell, and it was…”
Benedict Evans Dec 5, 2017 ▶ 4:57 10 Year Futures (vs. What's Happening Now)
Dec 5, 2017 neutral
Prediction Held up
Evans predicts Amazon will reach 600,000 employees by end of 2017
“Amazon will probably end this year with about 600,000 people.”
Benedict Evans Dec 5, 2017 ▶ 3:31 10 Year Futures (vs. What's Happening Now)
Feb 3, 2018 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Chen: Oil companies make Apple, Amazon, and Google look small
“Not many companies make the tech giants like Apple and Amazon and Google look small, but the oil companies definitely do.”
Frank Chen Feb 3, 2018 ▶ 0:57 The Autonomy Ecosystem: Energy (4 of 8)
May 4, 2018 neutral
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Terry Angelos: Payments Will Recede Into Background as Commerce Verticalizes
“So I think we're going to see a big race toward verticalized commerce. I think when you put together in the U S at least what Amazon's trying to do, Google's trying to do with echo and a few other things, you'll see payments just recede into the background.”
Terry Angelos May 4, 2018 ▶ 33:31 The Oral History of TrialPay -- Obstacles and Opportunities in Payments
May 15, 2018 positive
Insight
Chan: O2O 2.0 allows brick-and-mortar stores to act as logged-in digital platforms
“This O to O, two point O concept means you are logging into physical spaces, just like you log into Amazon, just like you log into Facebook. What this means is physical spaces now are using technology to fight back against this death of retail.”
Connie Chan May 15, 2018 ▶ 3:00 Online to Offline 2.0: Experiments and Examples from China
Jul 15, 2018 negative
Opinion
Dixon: Tech power concentration is at its highest since peak Microsoft
“We live in a time where I think we have probably the greatest concentration of power in, on the internet that, that I mean, you know, or in the technology world since probably Microsoft at its peak in the nineties.”
Chris Dixon Jul 15, 2018 ▶ 6:10 An Intro to Crypto: Decentralization, the Big Picture
Nov 2, 2018 bearish
Prediction Held up
Paul Krugman predicts blockchain will not undermine Amazon or tech incumbents
“I don't believe that blockchain is going to undermine Amazon or any of these people, because The reason I use Amazon is not because of power, or the, not the power of Amazon, but the power of laziness.”
Paul Krugman Nov 2, 2018 ▶ 24:12 Debating Crypto: Katie Haun vs. Paul Krugman
Nov 16, 2018 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Amazon's 1994 business plan specified no warehouses, stock, or shipping
“In fact, the original Amazon business plan from 1994 said no warehouses, no stock, no shipping.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2018 ▶ 9:47 The End of the Beginning
Nov 16, 2018 bullish
Assertion Supported
Evans: Netflix and Amazon match top US media content budgets
“Netflix and Amazon are now top tier content producers. They have equivalent budgets to the other major US entertainment companies.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2018 ▶ 14:46 The End of the Beginning
Nov 16, 2018 negative
Insight
Evans: Online groceries fundamentally break Amazon's commodity e-commerce model
“The interesting thing about groceries is that it breaks the Amazon model. In fact, it breaks the whole e-commerce model, because the whole point of Amazon is that everything is a commodity.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2018 ▶ 10:10 The End of the Beginning
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Google Views Apple as a Channel, Not an Existential Competitor
“Google is not in a one-to-one fight to the death with Apple. You could argue it's in a one-to-one fight to the death with Facebook. Or even potentially with Amazon. But Apple is a channel.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:44 a16z Podcast | Apple and Google Won the Mobile OS War, But a New War Has Already Begun
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: Scale, language, and culture block US tech expansion abroad
“Where you have a country that's actually big enough to sustain real scale businesses and has a fundamentally different language and culture, then it's quite hard for Amazon or Google to roll in.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:42 a16z Podcast | China and Tech
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Evans: Amazon treats TV content and devices as e-commerce loss leaders
“In the US, that's not really the point at all. You know, it's just Amazon, Amazon video, Netflix video, whatever, get them on the device and get them to buy groceries from us, get them to buy diapers from us, get them to buy headphones from us, and the TV is t…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:14 a16z Podcast | The Future Of Television
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Evans: TV has replaced music as Big Tech's ecosystem battleground
“Music was an ecosystem battleground, and it's turned into a checkbox commodity feature that you throw into any new product as like something you have to have. You know, you're launching a phone, you're launching this, you're launching, you've got to have a pho…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:20 a16z Podcast | The Future Of Television
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Levie: Building custom data centers loses value versus buying cloud compute
“You're probably better off letting Amazon, Microsoft, Google all compete for your dollars than you going and building them out yourself, and then by the time you deploy them, Moore's Law cycle, another Moore's Law cycle has already occurred, and you've lost, y…”
Aaron Levie Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:24 a16z Podcast | Mapping the Information Economy -- Where’s the Cloud Going Next?
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Sinofsky: Non-tech firms cannot compete with tech giants on security
“It also allows IT to focus much less on the deployment and management and scale and reliability and security, which of course, the idea of competing with, you know, the Googles and the Amazons and the Microsofts on security, if you're, you know, an appliance m…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:38 a16z Podcast | Mapping the Information Economy -- Where’s the Cloud Going Next?
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Amazon will spend billions on Amazon Fresh and expand slowly
“Amazon will have to spend billions of dollars to roll out fresh. That means it will be rolled out slowly.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:48 a16z Podcast | People Marketplaces Take On One of the Last Great E-Commerce Opportunities: Groceries
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Disclosure
Investing in Instacart violates Jordan's rule against competing with Amazon
“So, so I'm violating one of my hard and fast rules in the sense of card investment, which is don't compete with Amazon.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:28 a16z Podcast | People Marketplaces Take On One of the Last Great E-Commerce Opportunities: Groceries
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Levine: Google and Facebook infrastructure is more advanced than AWS
“I think that the Google and Facebook infrastructure is now moving in my opinion, more advanced than what Amazon is. Amazon was created several, many, sort of, already generations ago, relative to this commoditization curve.”
Peter Levine Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:56 a16z Podcast | Datacenter of the Future
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Johnson: Amazon operates primarily as the Walmart of the internet
“Now, you know, people like Amazon are actually the Walmart of the internet. I think we all know that, and they're helping people buy things at low price online.”
Ron Johnson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:48 a16z Podcast | Building Brands and Running Retail -- Ron Johnson and Tristan Walker Break It Down
Jan 2, 2019 negative
What-if
Evans: Investor demand for immediate cash returns would collapse Amazon's stock
“If for some reason investors decided, you know what, we're going to fundamentally change your attitude to what kind of returns we want from this business. We're going to stop thinking about it as a bridge. It needs to start spitting out cash to us right now to…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:02 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Insight
Evans: Bezos operates Amazon like a venture fund that never returns capital
“The difference is at some point we have to go back to our LPs and say, well, we're kind of done with that bunch of companies and here's your three or four X return. Right. Whereas Bezos doesn't have to go back to his LPs. People are just willing to let him kee…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:02 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
40% of Amazon unit sales come from third-party merchants
“Now, the funny thing about this is it affects the financials is that 40% of the unit volume is going, being sold through third parties.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:45 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Insight
Evans: Amazon Video Is a Loss Leader to Drive E-Commerce Sales
“And if you then turn around and say, well, gee, look, you know, they're spending this much on video content, and they can't possibly be making a profit on that. Well, yeah, they're making a profit by selling you headphones. That's how it works.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:43 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Insight
Evans: Amazon isn't losing money; it reinvests past profits into new businesses
“It's not that they lose money on anything they do. It's just that all the profits they take, they put into new things. So they spend business profits from yesterday's business on tomorrow's business.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:36 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Opinion
Bezos manages Amazon on a 20-year horizon, ignoring quarterly earnings pressure
“Bezos has, he doesn't have a majority, but he has effective control of the company. He's got a large stake in it. He doesn't need to raise money from the stock market. He does need the share price to be stable, or at least not fall, because that's how he pays …”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:21 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Bezos reinvests hundreds of billions into Amazon's infrastructure over holding cash
“And for Amazon, you've got exactly the opposite story, that instead of taking, putting a hundred and fifty billion dollars in the bank, he's put a hundred and fifty billion dollars into building new warehouses, and AWS, and new countries, and new categories, a…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:44 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Amazon's equity compensation structure differs significantly from tech industry norms
“The compensation is massively loaded to stock, and it's massively loaded to people who stay there for three or four or five years, which is very different from the way it works in the rest of the world, in the rest of the tech industry.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:53 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Physical Media Accounts for Less Than 25% of Amazon's Revenue
“The whole of physical media, you know, the books and the DVDs and so on is less than a quarter of their revenue,”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:19 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Evans: Amazon Has Kept Net Income at Zero for 15 to 20 Years
“And then the net income line has been zero effectively for 15 or 20 years.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:54 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: Assessing Amazon's net income is like summing a VC fund's P&Ls
“To look at the profitability of Amazon, it's a bit like looking at our firm. And saying, okay, well let's add up the P and L of all of the companies that we've invested in. And is it positive or negative? And I don't think that would tell you anything meaningf…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:33 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: A Company Only Reports Zero Profit Consistently by Intentional Design
“And the only way you report zero profit every year is on purpose.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:01 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Evans: Amazon Bundles Digital Content to Lock In Retail Shoppers
“So they throw that into your Prime subscription, they throw as many things as they possibly can that have no marginal cost other than bandwidth, which is not really the issue, into their, into your Prime subscription. As a way of enticing you into taking out a…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:53 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Evans: E-commerce represents roughly 10% of US retail revenue
“E-commerce is as it might be 10% of US retail right now by revenue, and Amazon has got maybe 15% of that.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:49 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Amazon's operating cash flow margin stayed around 6-8% for a decade
“If you look at the operating cash flow, which is basically the money coming out of the business before CapEx and a few other things, the operating cash flow margin has been really stable for the last decade at sort of six, seven, eight percent.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:27 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Evans: Amazon's sole strategic vulnerability is stock price performance
“The stock price and the compensation is the only risk to the strategy. Because if the stock price falls, then you have a problem keeping people.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:31 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Evans: Narrative that Amazon sells below cost is 'doubly nonsense'
“So this idea that Amazon thrives by selling at below cost is, is doubly nonsense, because half the stuff on Amazon, they don't even set the price, they're not even setting the price for.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:33 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Smith: Amazon will restrict same-day delivery to groceries and next-day elsewhere
“I don't buy that there's a lot of product demand for same day. I think that Amazon will do same day for grocery because it makes sense on fresh. I don't, I believe they'll do next day on everything else.”
Mike Smith Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 41:25 a16z Podcast | Where's My Stuff? -- The Lowdown on Logistics and Ops
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swartz: Smaller startups will increasingly compete with Amazon on service
“The Amazons of the world are going to have a lot of competition from smaller startups on the service front.”
Mike Swartz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 48:03 a16z Podcast | Where's My Stuff? -- The Lowdown on Logistics and Ops
Jan 2, 2019
Disclosure
Swartz: Spent 80% of his workday recruiting during hyper-growth phases
“I underestimated how much time you have to spend recruiting and hiring, you know. I would spend 80% of my day sometimes interviewing and trying to find the right people”
Mike Swartz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:57 a16z Podcast | Where's My Stuff? -- The Lowdown on Logistics and Ops
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Jordan: The best outcome for USPS is privatization by Amazon or UPS
“USPS is, you know, been having, you know, been running a massive loss for many, many, many years. I mean, for me, the best outcome is either one of two people buys it and basically privatizes it, UPS or Amazon.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:09 a16z Podcast | Ecommerce and the Holiday Shopping Collision
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jordan: Amazon remains weak in soft goods retail despite continuous efforts
“You can go in categories where Amazon isn't particularly strong in spite of a lot of efforts. They're not that they're good. They're really strong and hard goods and you know, mass mass marketed UPC code type things. They're not that good in the soft goods and…”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:14 a16z Podcast | Ecommerce and the Holiday Shopping Collision
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jordan: Amazon has driven consumer expectations toward next-day delivery
“And at the same time, the M and Amazonization of e-commerce is increased consumer expectations on if I ordered today, it's here tomorrow.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:54 a16z Podcast | Ecommerce and the Holiday Shopping Collision
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Disclosure
Jordan: Julep and Walker & Co avoid selling on Amazon
“We have a couple investments Julep and Walker and co in Beauty and personal care for people of color respectively, where they're building products that they elect not to sell through Amazon because they can control the distribution of their own product at that…”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:56 a16z Podcast | Ecommerce and the Holiday Shopping Collision
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Held up
Jordan: Amazon will handle low-cost shipments, leaving high-cost deliveries to UPS
“I've got a thesis that they will soon be, I think they are already entering the shipping market cherry picking the best the, low, the lowest cost shipments they are starting to do themselves. Increasingly and just leave UPS with the higher cost shipments, whic…”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:11 a16z Podcast | Ecommerce and the Holiday Shopping Collision
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Contradicted
Jordan: Amazon and eBay each represent 20% of US online spending
“I've done some back of the envelope calculations that Amazon, if you take their first party business and their third party business and normalize it for consumer sales, they represent about one in five dollars spent on the internet. Interestingly, eBay also re…”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:09 a16z Podcast | Ecommerce and the Holiday Shopping Collision
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Insight
Evans: Apple Pay neutralizes Amazon's primary mobile checkout advantage
“One of the key reasons to buy something on Amazon particularly on mobile as it's already set up with your account, so you don't need to enter a credit card in. Well, if you've got Apple Pay, then you don't need that, that, all of that aggregation goes away.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:08 a16z Podcast | Enough with the Old Stuff -- Time for New Questions in Mobile
Jan 2, 2019
Opinion
Evans: Apple is less of a competitor to Facebook and Amazon than Google
“Apple is less of a competitor to both Facebook and Amazon than Google is.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:02 a16z Podcast | Enough with the Old Stuff -- Time for New Questions in Mobile
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Facebook and Amazon will continue pushing into mobile operating systems
“But that doesn't mean that Facebook and Amazon are going to give up, because, you know, there is this sort of fundamental existential question, well, how do you find stuff? And how do you give just J stuff to your friends? And where does that happen within the…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:17 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Supported
Jeff Jordan: Amazon and Yahoo's free auctions failed against eBay
“Amazon and Yahoo launch auction businesses early in eBay's life and they went for free. So every seller in the world said, I'll list, list my site there. It didn't work cause they hadn't, they couldn't get the buyers to show up there. So eBay, even though we w…”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:54 a16z Podcast | The Marketplace Rules
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Jordan: Amazon's e-commerce growth comes entirely from third-party sellers
“One of the secrets of it, dirty secrets of Amazon is they their first party business isn't growing very fast at all. Their third party business is exploding.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:52 a16z Podcast | The Marketplace Rules
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Wilson: Board recruitment is lengthy, erratic, and provides poor feedback
“The hardest thing for me has been that even though I understand the board recruiting process, and I was in charge of a lot of it at Amazon, working really closely with the outside directors, I just, it is a long process, and it's really in fits and starts, and…”
Michelle Wilson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:55 a16z Podcast | Public or Private? Finding the Right Board Seat
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Disclosure
Rascoff: Zillow replaced board PowerPoint decks with Amazon-style written memos
“We switched about a year ago to a memo system after Bezos and Amazon's model of kind of no PowerPoint for one or two meetings in a row.”
Spencer Rascoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:34 a16z Podcast | How to Lead, Not Manage Your Board
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Digikala is the largest online retailer in Iran
“Digicolor is basically the biggest online retail in Iran. It's like Amazon of Iran.”
Mohsen Malayeri Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:08 a16z Podcast | Is Entrepreneurship a Universal Language?
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Supported
Markoff: Google acquired robotics startups to build an automated delivery network
“When Andy Rubin was going around the valley and buying and around the world and buying up, you know, the world's best roboticist, he was sketching out a vision which I would describe as a Google competing with Amazon. And you know, and if you can kind of see t…”
John Markoff Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 27:08 a16z Podcast | Talking Humans and Machines with NYT’s John Markoff
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Byrne: Overstock is 10% cheaper on average than Amazon
“In many ways, we're like Amazon, except I like to say about 10% cheaper on average, and with better customer service, as several industry groups have certified.”
Patrick Byrne Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:29 a16z Podcast | Wall Street's Most Hated Man -- A Conversation With Overstock.com's Patrick Byrne
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Contradicted
Overstock launched a partner drop-shipping marketplace years before Amazon
“And thus began our partner program. We were the first to the market with it. Amazon followed a couple years later.”
Patrick Byrne Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:48 a16z Podcast | Wall Street's Most Hated Man -- A Conversation With Overstock.com's Patrick Byrne
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Levine: Future data centers will mirror hyperscale cloud architectures, not legacy hardware
“A lot of the new data center architectures Are more going to look like Facebook, Google, and Amazon, and less like older, you know, sort of Wall, I call them Wall Street data centers.”
Peter Levine Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:30 a16z Podcast | Dell + EMC -- Why the Python Just Ate the Cow
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Burbidge: Fintech startups will sell to big tech, not banks
“Your exit opportunities aside from staying independent and maybe going public or whatever is potentially on the buyout side. You may not be selling to a bank, you might be selling to Facebook, you might be selling to Amazon, you might be selling to Google as t…”
Eileen Burbage Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:37 a16z Podcast | Fintech from the World's Financial Capital -- London
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeff Wu: Personalization will expand into consumables and productivity tools
“Personalization will happen across all segments of the economy, right? There's already personalization for your financial advisor. There's personalization on what things you want to buy from Amazon, and it stands to reason that there'll be personalization for …”
Jeff Woo Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:28 a16z Podcast | Nootropics and the Best Version of Your Brain, Yourself
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Hariharan: Indian e-commerce delivery costs reach 30 percent of net sales
“30% of net sales in India is delivery, versus Amazon in the U.S. Says it's about 10 or 11%.”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:52 a16z Podcast | The Tiger and the Dragon -- On Tech and Startups in India and China
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: Most Amazon customers discover products elsewhere before buying
“Most people buy stuff on Amazon that they previously discovered existed somewhere else.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:58 a16z Podcast | The Year Mobile Began to Truly Dominate Tech
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Insight
Stanek: Most companies lack sufficient data scale for in-house machine learning
“Most companies are not big enough to have big enough sample for machine learning. You know, big banks. What makes Google Google? What makes Amazon Amazon is that the data sample is so big that you can actually really learn from it. Typical company would look a…”
Roman Stanek Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:37 a16z Podcast | Making the Most of the Data That Matters
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Prediction Held up
Chen: Insurance sales will move to Amazon, Costco, and Facebook Messenger
“Why aren't I buying more insurance products at Costco or Amazon or through Facebook Messenger? And so, like, that will come.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:04 a16z Podcast | Reinventing Insurance
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Shirky: Xiaomi's operational model resembles Amazon more than Apple
“The company that Xiaomi is most like is Amazon, and when you think about the kinds of things Amazon has done to innovate you see, again, this obsession with supply chain management.”
Clay Shirky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:49 a16z Podcast | 'In the Eye of a Tornado': Views on Innovation from China
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Andreessen: Tech leaders fix crises with new breakthrough products, not corporate turnarounds
“So Jeff Bezos never does a turnaround at Amazon. Mark Zuckerberg never does a turnaround at Facebook. If the company gets in trouble, the answer is, what's the next big new breakthrough product?”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:09 a16z Podcast | Investing in (Business and Career) Change
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hariharan: Amazon US delivery costs relative to transaction size are lower than India's
“Amazon itself says that their delivery costs, for example, as a percentage of transaction in the U S is a lot lower than in India.”
Anu Hariharan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 14:53 a16z Podcast | E-commerce, Payments, & More in India's Evolving Retail Landscape
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bahl: Local Indian startups will out-execute distracted global players like Amazon
“Any big multinational company can't focus all their energy, all their resources, however vast those may be, only on one market. Our speed of execution is materially going to be higher and faster than any market player which has a very large global mandate.”
Kunal Bahl Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:25 a16z Podcast | E-commerce, Payments, & More in India's Evolving Retail Landscape
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Alex Rampell: Amazon likely holds more payment cards on file than PayPal
“Amazon probably has more cards on file than PayPal has cards on file.”
Alex Rampell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:49 a16z Podcast | Fintech Revolution or Evolution?
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Alex Rampell: Apple threatens Amazon with App Store removal over in-app purchases
“And Apple is saying, hey, you want to go buy this streaming video from Amazon? Uh-uh. Can't do it on an Apple phone. The Amazon app will not let you buy certain types of things because otherwise Apple would remove it from the app store.”
Alex Rampell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:50 a16z Podcast | Fintech Revolution or Evolution?
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Opinion
Alex Rampell: Amazon should root for Apple Pay to fail
“They probably don't need Apple Pay as much, but they should be internally rooting for it to fail. Because if it fails, it actually helps Amazon sell more things at a higher markup vis-a-vis the competition.”
Alex Rampell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:00 a16z Podcast | Fintech Revolution or Evolution?
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Opinion
Andreessen: Lacking a Smartphone Allowed Amazon to Lead in Voice AI
“And so it's sort of this ironic twist of fate that Amazon has all of a sudden taken the lead from Google and Apple Even though Amazon, you know, famously flopped with their phone, right? Which is sort of the obvious place where you would have a voice interface…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:32 a16z Podcast | Software Programs the World
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Cockcroft: Amazon threat forced retail and media to adopt cloud architectures first
“This is also moving across industries. We've seen obviously media and entertainment and to some extent retail We're early movers, mostly because of the threat of Amazon themselves, causing retailers to step up to re-engineering. We're now seeing fintech or Wal…”
Adrian Cockcroft Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:26 a16z Podcast | All About Microservices
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rampell: No horizontal services marketplace exists despite Amazon's efforts
“You don't have any horizontal services marketplace, despite the fact that Amazon is trying to do that.”
Alex Rampell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:04 a16z Podcast | The Movement of Money
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Jordan: Direct-to-consumer models yield higher margins by bypassing traditional aggregators
“This pre-tail or pre-commerce enables you to leverage the internet and your social following to go direct to the consumers. You get to basically disintermediate the historic aggregators. So, you know, if you were selling a phone 20 years ago, you can even say …”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:58 a16z Podcast | Welcome to the New Era of Commerce
Jan 2, 2019
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Harari: Algorithmic authority's major breakthrough will rely on biometric data
“I think the big breakthrough will come with biometric data. So far, most of these algorithms, whether it's Amazon or Netflix or whatever, they work mainly on the basis of data external to my body. They follow me around in space, see where I go, which places I …”
Yuval Noah Harari Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:04 a16z Podcast | Brains, Bodies, Minds ... and Techno-Religions
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Insight
Hastings: Netflix competes for broad leisure time, not just Amazon or HBO
“It's not just competing against Amazon or HBO, it's really this open competition for time.”
Reed Hastings Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:47 a16z Podcast | Tech and Entertainment in the 'Era of Mass Customization'
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Disclosure
Hastings: Amazon has invested far more in video content than expected
“In Amazon's case, I would say they've exceeded the amount of investment that I would have thought they'd, ah, put in. They spend a tremendous amount of money in the area, and some of the shows, as you said, are working out.”
Reed Hastings Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 36:08 a16z Podcast | Tech and Entertainment in the 'Era of Mass Customization'
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Rampell: Amazon's initial recommendation algorithm relied on cosine similarity
“Amazon, their first collaborative filtering algorithm was called, it used cosine similarity, so it used actual math to figure out people that like this actually like that, and it was much more democratized in terms of the set of information that was available …”
Alex Rampell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:55 a16z Podcast | Technology, Mobility, and the American Dream
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Big four tech platforms expanded headcount 10x in a decade
“Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, as being together about 10 times the size in terms of the number of people that they were 1012 years ago.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:45 a16z Podcast | The Strategies and Tactics of Big
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Evans: Amazon's atomized structure enables indefinite scaling without added hierarchy
“And then everything else sits on top of that and is radically decentralized. So everything is a team. There's a team of, like, three people. So shoes in Germany are three people, and makeup in France is four people. And music players, well, pick a category. It…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 22:04 a16z Podcast | The Strategies and Tactics of Big
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Insight
Horowitz: Multi-business expansion should only happen after the core business is profitable
“What Amazon is doing, I think, is a lot the right approach, which is, you get, you have one business. And you get it working, and it generates money, and then it can generate enough money for you to add another business, but you don't, like, have one business,…”
Ben Horowitz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:26 a16z Podcast | Cash, Growth, and CEO ❤ CFO
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Opinion
Evans: Machine learning strengthens tech incumbents rather than shifting market power
“Machine learning is like this new foundational technology that, in a sense, will enable a bunch of new stuff and new companies, but it makes Google better Google, and it makes Facebook stronger, Facebook and Amazon maybe stronger Amazon. It doesn't unlock, it …”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:30 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Tech dominance cycle will eventually turn for Big Tech
“It's not apparent how that cycle would turn for Google or Apple or Facebook or Amazon, but it will turn.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 29:02 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Founders control all top tech giants except Apple
“And they all, except for Apple, the founders control the company.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:59 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Supported
Spisak: AWS image recognition service lacks support for custom enterprise data
“Because even today, you know, just being the self-deprecating Amazon guy, we have services that aren't, they're not very flexible. Like our image recognition service is really cool, and it does a lot of great things, but I can't actually bring my own data to i…”
Joe Spisak Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:45 a16z Podcast | AI, from 'Toy' Problems to Practical Application
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Opinion
Evans: Expecting voice assistants to become universal platforms is a blind alley
“Each one of the things that Alexa can do, somebody had to build, and that doesn't scale, and so the idea this becomes like a universal platform, or it's like it's the next smartphone, is a complete blind alley.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:02 a16z Podcast | Beyond CES: Connected Home Devices, Voice, and More
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Sarandos notes Amazon paid 10x Twitter's price for non-exclusive NFL rights
“The cost of that Amazon NFL deal for basically games that are on two other networks at the same time, so completely non-exclusive programming, went up 10 times from Twitter to Amazon.”
Ted Sarandos Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 29:50 a16z Podcast | The Internet of Taste, Streaming Content to Culture
Jan 2, 2019
Insight
Behrens-Wu: Shipping options directly drive e-commerce checkout conversion rates
“Shipping is no longer a means to an end to get your item from A to B. The buyer at checkout looks at whether shipping is free, whether it meets their expectation around transit times, and if it doesn't, they close the window and they go to Amazon and buy it th…”
Laura Behrens-Wu Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:29 a16z Podcast | The API Economy -- The Why, What, and How
Jan 2, 2019 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Humble: Amazon wins because competitors cannot copy its continuous production experiments
“They're running hundreds of experiments in production at any one time to improve the product, and that's not something that anyone else can copy. That's why Amazon keeps winning.”
Jez Humble Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:24 a16z Podcast | Feedback Loops -- Company Culture, Change, and DevOps
Jan 2, 2019
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jez Humble: DevOps emerged to solve scale challenges pioneered by Amazon and Google
“And I think from a historical point of view, the best way to think about DevOps, it's a bunch of people who had to solve this problem of how do we build large distributed systems that were secure and scalable and be able to change them really rapidly and evolv…”
Jez Humble Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:11 a16z Podcast | Feedback Loops -- Company Culture, Change, and DevOps
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Horowitz: Tech approval ratings reach 80 percent, dwarfing Congress and media
“So if you look at approval ratings of tech. They're incredibly high. Like they're the highest of any industry and like Amazon's approval raising, which is one of the biggest targets is like 80. Whereas Congress is like 20 and the press is like 20.”
Ben Horowitz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 28:48 a16z Podcast | Beyond Zero-Sum Thinking in the Game of Tech... and Life
Jan 2, 2019 negative
Opinion
Chen: Amazon Has No Incentive to Stop Echo Accidental Triggers
“They have no incentive to fix that. Because, like, it reminds you that it's there and reminds you to talk to it.”
Andrew Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:31 a16z Podcast | The Basics of Growth 1 -- User Acquisition
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jeff Jordan: Amazon's primary marketing channel is free shipping
“Amazon's key marketing right now is free shipping.”
Jeff Jordan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:50 a16z Podcast | The Basics of Growth 1 -- User Acquisition
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Prediction Held up
Wilson: Cloud market will split to Amazon 60%, Google 30%, Microsoft 10%
“But I think it could be like Amazon has 60% of the market, Google has 30% of the market, and Microsoft has 10% of the market. I think it's gonna be a three player game in that business, and that's good.”
Fred Wilson Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:34 a16z Podcast | Technological Trends, Capital, and Internet 'Disruption'
Jan 2, 2019 bearish
Prediction Held up
Horowitz: Jeff Bezos will never build a $5 billion corporate campus
“Jeff Bezos will never build a five billion dollar campus because he doesn't care about what the doorknob looks like.”
Ben Horowitz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:51 a16z Podcast | New Upstarts in an Old Industry
Jan 2, 2019 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCullough: Jeff Bezos used books as an experiment to test e-commerce viability
“He did not necessarily believe himself that commerce was better in a virtual environment. But once he proved it, so like run it, starting with books and running Amazon was almost like this test that he was running to himself. And then because we see as soon as…”
Brian McCullough Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 44:04 a16z Podcast | How the Internet Happened
Jan 2, 2019 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Tech giants decoded media and culture between 2015 and 2018
“It really is in the last, like, three years, it feels like a bunch of the Valley companies are really starting to decode culture, A bunch of the big, I mean, Netflix being, you know, Netflix sort of, you know, sort of setting a new model, but now being, you kn…”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:17 a16z Podcast | Talent, Tech Trends, and Culture -- with Ben, Marc, and Tyler Cowen
Feb 9, 2019 positive
Assertion Supported
Amazon has deployed over 100,000 Kiva robots in distribution centers
“They bought a company called Kiva, and they are literally over the 100,000 robot mark.”
Frank Chen Feb 9, 2019 ▶ 5:37 Better Together: Humanity + Machine Learning
Feb 9, 2019 positive
Assertion Contradicted
Amazon hired 235,000 new employees in a single year despite heavy automation
“They've hired 235,000 people. Just think about that for a second. 235,000 people in the last year are new Amazon employees.”
Frank Chen Feb 9, 2019 ▶ 5:57 Better Together: Humanity + Machine Learning
Feb 26, 2019 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sinofsky: Voice assistant divergence will end easy dual-platform hardware integration
“Google is going to have a different set of ideas for what you can do with this device than Amazon does. And once the platforms start diverging, the idea of it being five lines of code and you get both for sort of for free is going to really change.”
Steven Sinofsky Feb 26, 2019 ▶ 34:24 a16z Podcast | Pulse Check on Consumer Tech Trends 2019, CES and Beyond
Mar 1, 2019
Assertion Partly supported
de la Garza: AWS Employee Misconfiguration Caused Hosting Provider Data Breach
“There was a hosting provider that had a breach of their data that was caused by an, it was actually an AWS salesperson, had misconfigured the permissions on their S three bucket and had a bunch of customer confidential data inside this bucket, which then got d…”
Joel de la Garza Mar 1, 2019 ▶ 5:03 Security Markets: The Lay of the Land
Apr 19, 2019 positive
Insight
Fish: Proof of Replication balances ASIC barriers with commoditized storage access
“So I think that's sort of where, Where proof of replication falls. Somewhere in between something which has high, you know, barriers of entry, such as something which requires ASICs you know, versus something that is just so convenient for Amazon to do and par…”
Ben Fish Apr 19, 2019 ▶ 44:18 Towards a Decentralized Storage Network for the Blockchain Computer
Apr 19, 2019 positive
Insight
Fish: Proof of Replication prevents Amazon from easily attacking decentralized networks
“When you do something like proof of replication, it's an extremely inconvenient way of storing files, right? So if Amazon were to convert all of its storage to you know, proof of replication for formatted storage it would be quite inconvenient if not if not co…”
Ben Fish Apr 19, 2019 ▶ 42:53 Towards a Decentralized Storage Network for the Blockchain Computer
Apr 19, 2019 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fish: Governments can easily force centralized cloud providers to censor files
“If you have Amazon in charge of all the storage, then maybe Amazon is not intending to censor Individuals, but say a government is, it's much easier for a government to prevent Amazon from serving files to their country than, you know, a amorphous internet of,…”
Ben Fish Apr 19, 2019 ▶ 3:58 Towards a Decentralized Storage Network for the Blockchain Computer
Apr 19, 2019 neutral
Insight
Fish: A 1% storage overhead hurts Amazon but empowers individual users
“I mean, when you're talking about a huge business like Amazon where the potential impact of, you know, making a small difference in the latency that they have for their customers or a small overhead in the storage that they're using. It could be, it could real…”
Ben Fish Apr 19, 2019 ▶ 46:35 Towards a Decentralized Storage Network for the Blockchain Computer
Apr 19, 2019 positive
Insight
Fish: Decentralized networks give anonymous devices Amazon-level cryptographic trust
“You don't have to spend, you know, millions of dollars on PR to you know, to garner a name like Amazon. Right. You just have a device. You join the network. Nobody knows who you are. But yet everybody should be able to have the same trust in you that they have…”
Ben Fish Apr 19, 2019 ▶ 10:09 Towards a Decentralized Storage Network for the Blockchain Computer
Jan 6, 2020
Assertion Supported
Pande: DIY CRISPR gene-editing kits are commercially available on Amazon
“You could get kits off of Amazon to do DIY CRISPR and that she could make our dog glow in the dark.”
Vijay Pande Jan 6, 2020 ▶ 15:24 Food, Drugs, and Tech: 100 years of Public Health
Mar 23, 2023 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: High-end brands refuse Amazon listings but join curated platforms
“On Amazon, there's lots of high-end brands who will say, we'll never put our products on Amazon. But they will put them on Sense or another marketplace that's kind of a more curated list of, like, high-end items.”
Olivia Moore Mar 23, 2023 ▶ 16:35 The Marketplace 100: A Glimpse Into the Future of Commerce
Apr 12, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Amazon sellers make virtually zero sales outside the Buy Box, notes Liu
“You basically get no sales if you're not in the buy box.”
Deb Liu Apr 12, 2023 ▶ 14:26 Marketplace Tactics: Metrics, Growth vs. Focus, Business Strategy | Field Notes by Connie Chan
Apr 12, 2023 neutral
Assertion Supported
Amazon expanded to CDs before clothing because structured metadata simplified inventory integration
“So Amazon did books because there's ISBN. There's like, you know, there's all, it was very structured, very easy to look up categories were already there. But the next thing they did was CDs because music published by large publishers had a very similar catego…”
Deb Liu Apr 12, 2023 ▶ 9:26 Marketplace Tactics: Metrics, Growth vs. Focus, Business Strategy | Field Notes by Connie Chan
Apr 14, 2023 positive
Insight
Amazon uses the Buy Box to lock in top marketplace sellers
“What Amazon does is they offer the buy box, right? Once you earn into the buy box, you don't want to leave. And so you're incented to drive more sales to that channel.”
Deb Liu Apr 14, 2023 ▶ 7:14 Marketplace Breakout Strategies: Take Rates, Defensibility, Payments | Field Notes by Connie Chan
May 25, 2023 neutral
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ismail: Amazon penalizes employee bonuses if their experiments do not fail enough
“We saw, for example, an Amazon that every team is measured on how many experiments they ran this quarter, how many succeeded, how many failed. If you're not running enough experiments and not enough for failing, you're actually, your bonus gets dinged, right?”
Salim Ismail May 25, 2023 ▶ 30:57 The Rise of the Exponential Organization with Peter Diamandis and Salim Ismail
May 25, 2023 positive
Assertion Supported
Ismail: Tech winners like Apple and Google succeeded by becoming platforms
“Yahoo, BlackBerry, Nokia all failed to become platforms, right? Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon all successfully became platforms, and that business model basically carries you through because now you wire yourself into the infrastructure.”
Salim Ismail May 25, 2023 ▶ 12:56 The Rise of the Exponential Organization with Peter Diamandis and Salim Ismail
Jul 14, 2023 positive
Disclosure
Otto: Cedar uses multi-armed bandit algorithms to personalize billing follow-ups
“So we use these multi-armed bandits, they're called. And then based on how the patient clicks through the app, that gives us another set of data, which is engagement data. And together with this engagement data, then of course the follow-ups are different. I m…”
Florian Otto Jul 14, 2023 ▶ 5:43 Why 50% of Every Dollar Billed Is Lost In Healthcare
Apr 2, 2024 negative
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Horowitz: Big Tech's startup cloud deals involve illegal roundtripping accounting
“The big tech companies have done this thing which we thought was illegal because we observed it occur at AOL and people went to jail, but what they've done is they invest in startups, you know, huge amounts of money. Microsoft and Amazon and Google are all doi…”
Ben Horowitz Apr 2, 2024 ▶ 54:30 Politics & the Future of Tech
Apr 2, 2024 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Andreessen: Anthropic is aggressively lobbying for regulatory capture in D.C.
“Anthropic is very much in the group of kind of big tech, you know, kind of new incumbent big tech, you know, lobbying very aggressively for regulation and regulatory capture. In D.C., and so I think it's sort of an open question whether Amazon is going to pick…”
Marc Andreessen Apr 2, 2024 ▶ 54:10 Politics & the Future of Tech
Apr 24, 2024 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Horowitz: Amazon achieved strong employee retention despite below-market tech pay
“People at Amazon were very cohesive culturally and they had great retention with not the best pay.”
Ben Horowitz Apr 24, 2024 ▶ 1:17:02 Startup Building: Major Shifts in Tech & Culture
Apr 30, 2024
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Argenti: 1990s startup launched online store before Amazon
“One of the very first online stores. In fact, we launched a little bit before Amazon”
Marco Argenti Apr 30, 2024 ▶ 3:59 Marco Argenti (Goldman Sachs): Turning Developers into Clients
Jul 23, 2024
Disclosure
Casey regrets not trimming Meta at $380 before it fell to $90
“The twenty-twenty-two period was rough and, you know, I kinda, my big mistake in twenty-twenty-two was not trimming a lot of stocks at the end of twenty-twenty-one. You know, I looked at Netflix at 6:30 then, and Amazon at one 80, and Facebook at three 80, Fac…”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 2:17 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Jul 23, 2024 bullish
Disclosure
Casey: Has held Amazon stock continuously since 2010
“So I finally wised up and have been holding Amazon since 2010.”
Mark Casey Jul 23, 2024 ▶ 4:24 Mark Casey (Capital Group): Public Market and Macro Perspectives
Dec 9, 2024 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Immerman: Apple could gain 1 billion search users overnight
“They are not investing the capex like Meta and Google and Microsoft and Amazon, but they control a central node to the consumer, and if they wanted to build a search application, the next day they could have a billion users.”
Alex Immerman Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 11:58 The 2025 AI Search Race
May 2, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Li: Amazon Go relied on human data labelers despite automated computer vision claims
“There's an Amazon Go supermarket a while back in Soma. So like they, I think they were advertising that it's computer vision models behind the scenes. Identifying what you took from the supermarket. But then people found that they hire a lot of people behind t…”
Yoko Li May 2, 2025 ▶ 17:58 What Is an AI Agent?
May 30, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pande: Big Tech's healthcare initiatives will remain minor side experiments
“I suspect that for those reasons, it's something that The big tech companies will try, and we've seen Apple and Amazon and Google all dabble, but I think those experiments probably won't fit the way they want to build their company, and so I think they'll stay…”
Vijay Pande May 30, 2025 ▶ 31:33 Hey Tech, Come to Healthcare
Aug 5, 2025 negative
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Seattle tech executives elected a candidate wanting to nationalize Amazon
“Seattle, to give you a sense how crazy things are, the district in Seattle, the city council district where the most Microsoft and Amazon executives lived, live, elected a city council woman who's, who ran a platform of nationalizing Microsoft and Amazon.”
Marc Andreessen Aug 5, 2025 ▶ 12:22 Marc Andreessen: The US is in a AI Arms Race & It Decides The World's Future
Aug 18, 2025
Assertion Supported
Patel: AI labs are buying RL environments for Amazon and Shopify
“Everyone knows that, like, Anthropic and OpenAI and all the other labs are buying RL environments of Amazon and of, like, Shopify and of Etsy and of all the different ways to shop on the internet. Of airline websites, right?”
Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 12:58 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization
Aug 18, 2025 bearish
Opinion
Patel: Microsoft's custom AI silicon lags behind Amazon, Google, and Meta
“Microsoft, their custom silicon kind of sucks but the other three, they're really upping their orders massively over the last year. You know, Amazon is making millions of Tranium. Google's making millions of TPUs. TPUs clearly are like a hundred percent utiliz…”
Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 21:29 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization
Sep 9, 2025 negative
Opinion
Mark Cuban says Pharmacy Benefit Managers are the core problem in healthcare
“You know, everybody, Amazon, everybody else. Okay. We're going to work with the big PBMs. Cause that's where the money is. And I'm like, no, they're the problem.”
Mark Cuban Sep 9, 2025 ▶ 35:16 Mark Cuban on the NBA, Cost Plus Drugs, and How to Fix Politics
Sep 17, 2025 negative
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: LLM hallucinations force shoppers back to Google and Amazon
“All, like, all LLMs, but I'll use ChatGPT as the example, because the most people use it have this really unfortunate and annoying problem of hallucinating around product recommendations that basically everyone experienced if you tried to use it for that.”
Justine Moore Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 21:19 The Death of Search: How Shopping Will Work In The Age of AI
Sep 17, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rampell: CamelCamelCamel is Amazon's largest affiliate partner
“I think it's actually Amazon's biggest affiliate”
Alex Rampell Sep 17, 2025 ▶ 4:21 The Death of Search: How Shopping Will Work In The Age of AI
Sep 22, 2025 bearish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Patel: Amazon will lose its position as largest data center operator within two years
“The company with the most data center capacity in the world, that, and still today, although they may get passed up in the next two years is Amazon. Actually, they will get passed up based on what we see is Amazon, but incrementally, Amazon still has the most …”
Dylan Patel Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 1:00:07 Dylan Patel on the AI Chip Race - NVIDIA, Intel & the US Government vs. China
Sep 24, 2025 negative
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Levie: Pricing H-1B visas allows big tech to capture most talent
“I think that you'd have a situation where the Amazons and Googles would probably actually capture the vast portion of the talent in this situation. So it's not clear to me that, like, startups sort of are come out ahead or better off from this particular imple…”
Aaron Levie Sep 24, 2025 ▶ 2:25 Software Finally Eats Services - Aaron Levie
Oct 7, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Nejatian: Opendoor built home return guarantee in 12 days
“It's like the honest, like from the time someone asked that question to the time we launched the product was maybe, I think, 12 days.”
Kaz (Kaz Nejatian) Oct 7, 2025 ▶ 54:23 Opendoor CEO: Building the Amazon for Homes
Oct 7, 2025 negative
Insight
Nejatian: Three structural flaws have killed every real estate tech attempt
“So I think like there's been three like structural flaws that have basically killed every attempt to solve this. The first one is like, let me solve a part of it. Let me solve the tiniest, like most profitable part of it first, which I objectively has failed l…”
Kaz (Kaz Nejatian) Oct 7, 2025 ▶ 24:30 Opendoor CEO: Building the Amazon for Homes
Oct 15, 2025 positive
Insight
Ghodsi: Ideal hires combine big-tech scale experience with startup grit
“I love to hire people who have seen great at a big company, like, or I don't know if it's great, but they've seen process scale, big company. They've been at a Google, they've been at Amazon, they understand the processes so that I understand how to navigate a…”
Ali Ghodsi Oct 15, 2025 ▶ 54:57 Ben Horowitz and Ali Ghodsi: How to Run a $100 Billion Business
Nov 24, 2025 positive
Prediction Partly held up
Epoch AI: Anthropic and Amazon are building the first gigawatt data center
“For instance, we learned that the most likely candidate to have the first gigawatt scale data center is Anthropic, which would not have been my pick but Anthropic Amazon's New Carlisle Project Rainier development seems on track to come online in January follow…”
Epoch AI Researcher Nov 24, 2025 ▶ 51:04 The 2045 Superintelligence Timeline: Epoch AI’s Data-Driven Forecast
Dec 12, 2025 negative
Opinion
Evans: Amazon excels at order fulfillment but fails at product discovery
“Amazon is great at getting you the SKU, terrible at telling you what SKU you want.”
Benedict Evans Dec 12, 2025 ▶ 55:36 AI Eats the World: Benedict Evans on the Next Platform Shift
Jan 19, 2026 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rampell: AWS accounts for vast majority of Amazon's market cap
“AWS accounts for the vast majority of market cap of Amazon.”
Alex Rampell Jan 19, 2026 ▶ 1:05 The AI Opportunity that goes beyond Models
Jan 26, 2026 positive
Opinion
David George: Big tech can easily absorb potential AI capex overbuild
“It turns out they're the best companies, you know, probably ever created you know, companies like Google, Facebook you know, Amazon and Microsoft, and they can bear you know, potential capacity overbuild and things like that.”
David George Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 2:37 The Biggest Bottlenecks For AI: Energy & Cooling
Apr 13, 2026 positive
Disclosure
Jessie Genet uses custom AI agents to automate Amazon and Instacart purchasing
“I've got agents ordering on Amazon, ordering on Instacart, yeah, dealing with or like, you know, if there's, like, an activity your kid has, and there's this laundry list of things you're supposed to have ready, I'll, like, send that to the agent and be like, …”
Jessie Genet Apr 13, 2026 ▶ 35:12 Building Agents at Home: Homeschooling, Parenting and More | The a16z Show
Jun 8, 2026
Assertion Supported
Evans: Big Tech produces more profits than the entire telecoms industry
“You have a pretty safe bet that Google, Meta, Amazon Microsoft, Apple produce more profits than the entire telecoms industry.”
Benedict Evans Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 56:37 The Economics of AI Usage and What's Next For SaaS | Benedict Evans on a16z
Aug 5, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Mo: Major chipmakers use vLLM as an internal benchmark
“And additionally, VLM also work closely with all the hardware vendors. So that means across like NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and Amazon, Intel, and a lot more, their newest chip will make sure VLM can run on them. And then a lot of cases they use VLM as a benchmark t…”
Simon Moe Aug 5, 2026 ▶ 9:29 How Open Source Became AI's Backbone | Inferact with a16z
Aug 25, 2026 neutral
Insight
Sinofsky: Microsoft worries far more about Amazon and Google than startups
“The only incumbents are only interested in what the other incumbents are doing. Microsoft is worried way more about what Amazon and Google are doing than anyone in a startup space.”
Steven Sinofsky Aug 25, 2026 ▶ 49:53 How AI Changes the Economics of Innovation
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