The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 218 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cohen: Nobody will use Concur, Amex GBT, or Salesforce by 2028
“In five years from now, nobody is using, going to use Conquer and Emacs. Nobody, by the way, nobody is going to use Salesforce.”
Fabrice Grinda predicts UBS and Credit Suisse are too big to bail
“They're too big to bail. So it's not too big to fail. They're too big to bail. They're so big. They're bigger, the Swiss government does not have the underwriting power to underwrite it, and I could see them failing and bringing down Switzerland with them, and…”
LeCun: Autoregressive LLMs will be obsolete within a few years
“So my prediction is that within a few years, nobody in their right mind would use auto-reversive LLMs. They'll go away in favor of something more sophisticated and controllable. They can plan its answer as opposed to just produce one word after the other react…”
Lemkin: Employees joining a $1B unicorn in 2023 will make nothing
“If as an employee, if you join a company with, in, in 2023 with a valuation over a billion as an employee, you're gonna make nothing. It doesn't matter what it sells for, you're gonna make nothing.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will be a multi-hundred billion dollar business by 2026
“And I think this business over the next five years is a multi-hundred billion dollar business.”
Avi Meir: Business travel in 2021 will surpass 2019 levels
“I'm willing to bet That business travel will grow in twenty-twenty-one. Not based on twenty-twenty, based on twenty-nineteen.”
Facebook Will Launch a Crypto Coin and Become Bitcoin's Main Competitor
“Now, I will say also that on crypto, I think that there's a high probability that the company that will really succeed in crypto will be Facebook, and the reason is that for them to launch their own coin and for them to distribute that coin and allow developer…”
O'Driscoll: Software valuations will never reach 20x revenue multiples again
“Give me 30% growth, give me profits, give me a story that's got some future in it, and I'll get you back to five times. I'll never give you 20 times again. I won't fall for that one this time.”
Lemkin: OpenAI's hardware device will launch within a year for $20
“This is going to be huge. It will launch in a year. It will be massively subsidized. So it'll be 20 bucks for this device. Okay. They will figure out the form factor. I don't know what the right combination is, whether it's embedded in your ear, like the baris…”
Hoffman predicts Bitcoin will approach $200,000 by the end of 2025
“I would say end of 25, so I'm approaching 200,000.”
Grimm predicts Russia-Ukraine negotiated settlement within the next year
“My guess is that and it's a complete conjecture here. I have no insider information whatsoever, but my guess is that we see some sort of detente or some sort of negotiated settlement take place probably over the next year would be my guess. And if I had to bet…”
Rabois: Donald Trump will not win the 2024 Republican presidential nomination
“You know, as you've probably seen on Twitter, I don't even believe he's gonna be the Republican nominee for president.”
Tomaino: Donald Trump will run for president and win from a jail cell
“I think he'll be running and winning from a jail cell as well. The entertaining, the most entertaining outcome is is the most likely, right?”
Mostaque: Only 5 or 6 foundation model companies will exist in 3-5 years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. I think it's going to be us, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
Mostaque: No AI models available today will be used in a year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Kaden: Seed-stage startup valuations will decrease in the near future
“I think seed valuations are going to go down.”
Emad Mostaque: No Current AI Models Will Be Used in a Year
“The reality is no models that are out today will be used in a year.”
Stebbings: Threads will stall at 5M DAU while Twitter grows
“I would say threads does not work. Maybe it teases along at five million DAU with hardcore small numbers. And I would say Twitter has modest growth to Two 75, 300 with election spikes.”
Lemkin predicts 26 tech companies will IPO in H2 2024
“And I may have the timing all wrong. I'm too optimistic, but I think there's 26 of them, which is one a week. I think there's 26 good companies at 200 that can IPO in 26 weeks in the back average.”
Carney: Recent Regional Banking Failures Put a Silver Bullet Into Stablecoins
“I think this probably puts a, you know, a silver bullet into stable coins.”
Tunguz: DeSantis will win the Republican primary over Trump
“I don't think so. I think, I bet DeSantis wins. I think it will be tough for him to circumnavigate all the legal troubles, and I wonder if the RNC doesn't get involved.”
Stebbings: 97% of Capital Invested in Uber Will Not Return 1x
“97% of the money that's gone into Uber will not return one X, just given the quantum of money.”
Lemkin: Venture funding and valuations will never return to 2021 peaks
“For founders, you have to understand that will never lead to a return of 2021. Never.”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will achieve full company profitability by 2024
“That balance for us at least meant that we're profitable in 20, 24.”
Gul: Airlift will reach free cash flow in Pakistan within 6-9 months
“For us specifically, Harry, we're looking at free cash flow across all markets across the country. In our first market in, in Pakistan sometime between Q four and Q one within the next six or nine months.”
Rabois will now exclusively invest in in-person startups
“I really want to invest in only companies that are in person. So I think there's a lot of alpha there. I think in-person companies will be the successful startups. I only want to find founders who are working in person and that's my new investment filter.”
Harry Stebbings predicts traditional VC round ownership will drop to 7.5%
“The days where they could take 15% are gone. It will be a new generation where they take seven and a half percent. Bluntly, alongside people like me and you taking seven and a half percent.”
Foroughi: AppLovin will become the third-largest digital ad marketplace
“Like if you just to size it, that's Facebook, Google one, two, or in whichever order I'd have to check, but that's the third biggest digital marketplace for advertising in terms of scale that will exist.”
UiPath is positioned to become a $100 billion market cap company
“We're in a position right now where we're one of the few companies on the planet who can realistically talk about building a business that becomes a hundred billion dollar market cap company with the product set, And the market and customers that are already s…”
Ward: Carta projects $600M base ARR up to $10B revenue by 2025
“Our base case, if none of our bets work out, we think we'll be around six hundred million in ARR, growing 50 to 70% year over year as a software business. If some of our more financial products that we're working on hit, We have a broad spectrum. These are hig…”
Volpi: The era of large closed-source enterprise software platforms is over
“I generally think that we've seen the last of enterprise software companies, large enterprise software companies that are platforms that are closed source.”
Pakman: Jay-Z's Tidal is doomed to ultimate failure
“So, I think Tidal's notion of exclusive content was somewhat doomed from the beginning, and I think the numbers show the product has failed. The social receptivity was really negative. And I think it will it will ultimately completely fail.”
Lemkin: Zenefits will reach $100M revenue in 24 months
“Zenefits will go one to a hundred million in revenue in 24 months.”
Lemkin predicts Talkdesk will reach a $1B valuation within 12 months
“You know, talk desk isn't a unicorn within 12 months, then I'll leave my hat.”
Lemkin: SpaceX IPO will be a dud and will not trade up
“I think the IPO nominally will be a dud. I don't think it will trade up dramatically.”
Green: Software stocks will remain dead money for a quarter or two
“What you're going to see is they're going to take numbers down at a bunch of companies. Give it a quarter or two. Companies will start to then, you know, beat numbers. Then they'll raise the numbers, and the stocks will start to work. But it's probably dead mo…”
O'Driscoll: OpenAI Will Capture All Ad-Buying Value Natively Without Ad-Tech
“So I think for the paid ads, all the value that's going to be captured is going to be captured by OpenAI, and there's not going to be a optimization engine.”
Lemkin: Figma and AI coding tools will compete within 12 months
“Today, they're great partners. It doesn't make sense that they will be great partners for prototyping in 12 months. It makes no sense.”
Lemkin: OpenAI's stock compensation will remain above 100% of revenue this year
“Now that's a lot, but it projected it would fall to 45% this year. It's not going to happen. Now it's going to still be in the triple digits.”
O'Driscoll: AGI's arrival will be defined by Microsoft and OpenAI litigation
“My comment is we're going to hit AGI when Microsoft and OpenAI litigate what OpenAGI is.”
Lemkin: OpenAI will not reveal ChatGPT-5 this year
“It will happen, but given all the activity, it wouldn't be surprised to me if it pushes a year longer, right? ... I'm saying I think no”
Feldman: AI adoption will equal cell phone penetration within two years
“I do think that Within a year or two. AI's penetration will be approximately the same as telephones, cell phones.”
Frankel: Pari passu terms are ending as strict preference stacks return
“And the PREF stack, like peri-passu, feels like something of the past. There's a real PREF stack coming.”
Taylor: Having an AI agent will be essential by 2025
“We like to say like in 1995, the way you existed digitally as a business to have a website in 20, 25, the way you will exist digitally is to have an AI agent.”
Lemkin: Wiz must IPO within 18 months after rejecting Google bid
“When the CEOs in, in, in, in the letter to the team says, we're going to go public instead, you got to do it in the next 18 months or so.”