The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 771 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: OpenAI's stock compensation will remain above 100% of revenue this year
“Now that's a lot, but it projected it would fall to 45% this year. It's not going to happen. Now it's going to still be in the triple digits.”
Galloway: US 30-year-olds are financially worse off than parents at 30
“For the first time in our nation's history, a thirty-year-old isn't doing as well as his or her parents were at 30.”
Galloway: US spends $12 on seniors for every $1 on kids
“Every year in the U.S., we spend 12 dollars on seniors for every one dollar we spend on kids.”
Harry Stebbings claims 95% of non-founding VC partners leave within 10 years
“They will not, like, 95% will not be there in 10 years. That's why most VCs are not rich, actually. It's because they're not there long enough for the carry to hit. That's why you go with people who founded the firm, because they're fucking stuck. They're neve…”
O'Driscoll: AGI's arrival will be defined by Microsoft and OpenAI litigation
“My comment is we're going to hit AGI when Microsoft and OpenAI litigate what OpenAGI is.”
Lemkin: OpenAI will not reveal ChatGPT-5 this year
“It will happen, but given all the activity, it wouldn't be surprised to me if it pushes a year longer, right? ... I'm saying I think no”
Lemkin: Founders Fund intentionally avoids investing in B2B software
“Founders Fund doesn't do B to B intentionally. They make exceptions, but they don't believe in B to B. They don't believe the outcomes justify it. It's explicitly, they don't do it.”
Lemkin: 93% of B2B sales professionals admit lying to win deals
“I asked 2000 folks in SASTR how many folks lie in deals to win deals? 97, 93% said they lied over 2000 to win deals. If you're lying, if 93% of 2000 B to B folks are lying to win deals, lying about features, lying about feature gaps, okay.”
Stebbings: UK Treasury relies on static economic modeling for tax policy
“They literally have static models which say if you increase the tax rate to X, you will get Y. They do not have any variability to what happens with import and export of anything.”
Lemkin: OpenAI expects no profitability until reaching $127B in revenue
“I mean, open AI said they're not going to be profitable until one hundred and twenty seven billion in revenue. A hundred and twenty seven billion.”
Green: Only three $100B+ companies were created post-iPhone
“You know, since the iPhone came out in 2007, 2006, whatever it was, there's only been three companies built that did not exist before. That were a hundred billion dollar companies. ByteDance, Pindo Doe, and Uber.”
Green: ByteDance North America generates only single-digit percentage of total revenue
“ByteDance North America is a, you know, single digit percentage of revenue.”
Feldman: Cerebras deployed more exaflops than anyone except Nvidia and AMD
“We, we've deployed tens of exaflops of compute vastly more than anybody else that, that, that isn't AMD or NVIDIA, right?”
Feldman: AI adoption will equal cell phone penetration within two years
“I do think that Within a year or two. AI's penetration will be approximately the same as telephones, cell phones.”
Morin: Switching from Nvidia to AMD offers 4x spend efficiency
“A simple example is if you know, switch from Nvidia to AMD on a seven TB model, you can get four times better efficiency, right? In terms of spend.”
Morin: Doubling GPUs in AI inference yields only 10% performance gain
“If you go from one GPU to two, you don't get twice the performance. Maybe you get 10% better performance. Yeah, that's the dirty secret nobody talks about. I'm talking inference, right? So, so you go from, let's say, a hundred to a 110 by doubling the amount o…”
Morin: AMD GPUs achieve 4x inference throughput over Nvidia setups
“If you run on AMD, well, there's enough memory inside the GPU to run one model per card. So you get, you know, eight GPUs, eight times the throughput, while on the other hand, you get eight GPUs, two, you know, two, maybe two and a half times the throughput. S…”
Ross: NVIDIA holds a cornered resource as HBM monopsony buyer
“You don't normally think of tech companies as having a cornered resource, but Nvidia has a cornered resource. They're a monopsony, the opposite of a monopoly, a single buyer for HBM, and the Interposer, the COOS.”
Ross: Industrial generators currently face a 90-month lead time
“There's a 90 month lead time on generators right now”
Ross: DeepSeek restricted signups due to a shortage of inference compute
“So, they ran out of compute, and this is why, this is the other reason why chip startups are gonna do just fine, because they ran out of inference compute.”
Hommels: Russia's PPP defense spending exceeds all NATO member states
“So, for example, everybody says, yeah, but Russia has the capacity or the economic power of something between Portugal and Spain. But in terms of purchase power parity, they're spending more on defense than the entire NATO member states.”
Stebbings: Klarna CEO Sebastian Siemiatkowski fired 700 customer support employees
“Seb at Clon has fired 700 people in customer support.”
Khachab: Eliminating food waste has 5x the CO2 impact of eliminating cars
“Reducing food waste. And I'm not saying, you know, alternative foods. I'm not saying eat less meat. I'm not, I'm just saying don't produce that waste. That's the only thing. Has five X the impact as if all cars would be gone, not electrified, but gone. Five X …”
Frankel: Pari passu terms are ending as strict preference stacks return
“And the PREF stack, like peri-passu, feels like something of the past. There's a real PREF stack coming.”
Taylor: Having an AI agent will be essential by 2025
“We like to say like in 1995, the way you existed digitally as a business to have a website in 20, 25, the way you will exist digitally is to have an AI agent.”
Sean Rad: Tinder enforced a rule to redesign the entire app yearly
“When I was there, when the team was there, we had a rule that every year we had to redesign the entire product because we didn't want people to get bored and stagnant, and we didn't want to become complacent as a team.”
Chirls: Top-quartile 2015 vintage VC funds haven't returned capital
“The top quartile, the best 25% of venture firms from the twenty-fifteen vintage have not returned their investors all their money. We're nine years in. The top quartile has not given their investors their money back.”
Aidan Gomez: There is no market for last year's AI models
“The reality of the matter is there's no market for last year's model.”
Gomez: Financial services firms are pulling back from cloud to build data centers
“When I speak to folks, It's super conflicted in financial services. Yeah. People are pulling away from cloud. They're pulling away from cloud. They're building out their own data center capacity. Everywhere else still seems to be, we need to migrate to cloud.”
Mollick: Penn grads raised more VC in 2022 than France and Germany
“More money went to graduates from Penn, from the school I teach at, and last time I checked in twenty-twenty-two than everybody in France and Germany put together.”
Mollick: Major AI labs lack educators and fail to understand teaching
“And I don't think a lot of the AI firms know that I know this cause we're deep working with all of them on things like education and like, they don't really understand education. There's no educators there. So they don't really understand what teachers do. And…”
Lemkin: Wiz must IPO within 18 months after rejecting Google bid
“When the CEOs in, in, in, in the letter to the team says, we're going to go public instead, you got to do it in the next 18 months or so.”
Founders Fund sold Spotify at $8B to double down on Airbnb
“It was Peter and Brian Zingerman and Napoleon that took what did they take? I think they sold Spotify at the eight billion dollar price, pissed off, what's his name? Daniel. Daniel Ek, and rolled it all into Airbnb at the two and a half billion.”
Franceschi: Only Brex, Citi, and Amex offer full global local card settlement
“And today there's three companies on the planet that can do that. Number one is Brex. Number two is Citibank. Number three is American Express. That's it.”
TikTok's Feed Model Was Born From Chinese Government Follower Limits
“It was a genius invention that came about of necessity because the Chinese government didn't want to have any social networks with more than 500 followers.”
Lemkin bets $20k that public SaaS multiples reach 8x by end of 2025
“Yeah, I'll do 20 grand at 12:31. At the end of 2025, we're back to an eight X world.”
Lemkin predicts Klaviyo will surpass Shopify in SaaS revenue in years
“They will cross, they will be doing more SaaS revenue than Shopify in a couple years.”
Mark Suster: 2021 tech overvaluations were worse than dot-com bubble
“1998, 99, 2000 are nothing compared to the overvaluations of twenty-twenty-one.”
Adam Gross: No Startup Raises Series A Pursuing Dual GTM Strategies
“And at some point, you got to decide, and you have to decide pretty early because nobody has ever raised an A or I would think a B doing both. You just would spread yourself far too thin attempting to do both.”
No Indian venture capital fund focused specifically on B2B before Together Fund
“उस समय एक भी VC फंड नहीं था, जो B to B पर focused था”
Blond: Brex Never Used Recruiters to Source Sales Talent
“At Brex, we did not use recruiters, internal or external, to source candidates for the sales organization Ever.”
Stephens: There Will Likely Not Even Be Two Companies Like SpaceX
“There's not gonna be a hundred space X's. There's probably not going to be two space X's”
Gili Raanan: 2021-level valuations have returned to private markets
“20, 20, 21 is back for the past four or five weeks. We are definitely in in at least in private markets when we are in a new Bull run, you know, valuations are high, skyrocketing.”
Bending Spoons pays identical salaries regardless of an employee's geographic location
“Currently we have the same salaries regardless of where you are.”
Lonsdale: Yale University Now Has More Administrators Than Undergraduate Students
“There's now more administrators at Yale than there are students, and almost as many at Harvard”
Lonsdale: Two-Thirds of University Students Report Self-Censoring Their Views
“The students, you know, two thirds report self-censorship to not just not say what they think because they're afraid to get in trouble at these places.”
Rabois: I have never passed on a multi-billion dollar founder
“Once you get me in the room with founders, I've made those calls really, really well. Like I was mentioning the other day that I'm not sure I've ever passed on somebody that's turned out to be building a multi-billion dollar company, but I have definitely decl…”