The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14,040 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Hulme: Microsoft acquired Inflection primarily for its 12,000 H100 GPU cluster
“I do not believe that Microsoft were buying the Pi model. I think Microsoft are GPU constrained, and we're buying a cluster of 12,000 H-one hundreds.”
Hulme: 90% of AI foundation model capital will go to zero
“Foundation models, 90%. Application layer, 70%. And in the incumbents, the value going into the incumbents, only 20%.”
Altman: OpenAI will steamroll startups building static software wrappers
“When we just do our fundamental job because we, like, have a mission, we're going to steamroll you.”
Lonsdale: Israel Will Keep Fighting and Completely Wipe Out Hamas
“The way it stands now is, is we're going to keep fighting. We're going to wipe out Hamas and hopefully we can work with others to have a government there. That's not, you know, does not allow terrorism.”
Lonsdale: Anti-Israel Hatred in Gaza Stems From School Indoctrination
“I think basically what creates a generation of civilians that hate Israel is you have the schools in that area have been run by people who teach people that Jews are pigs and Jews are wrong and our religion hates Jews.”
Rabois: No $100 billion European tech company has been created since 1990
“There hasn't been a hundred billion dollar European company created since 1990.”
Petersen: Remote US workers will lose jobs to offshore talent arbitrage
“By the way, I think remote work can really work, but it's not going to benefit the people who think like, it's not going to be people making 250,000 dollars a year hanging out in Jackson Hole. It's going to be geniuses in the developing world Making, you know,…”
Huber: Wealth redistribution would revert to 80/20 inequality within five years
“You could take all the money in the United States right now. You take all the money and you could divide it equally among everybody. Take all the money and divide it equally. And in five, 10, 15 years, you could argue about the timeframe. In five years, at lea…”
Huber: Poorest Americans today live better than wealthiest Americans 50 years ago
“Today the poorest people in America have a better life than the wealthiest people in America 50 years ago. They have better access to healthcare. They have better living situations. They have more amenities. They have better food. It trickles down massively, a…”
Khosla: Nuclear fusion will demonstrate net positive energy by 2025 or 2026
“I believe demonstrating positive energy by 25, maybe 26, will be also 10 X faster.”
Proposed EU AI Regulation Would Make All Existing LLMs Illegal
“One of the percent of the LMs that were trained these last three years would be illegal in Europe.”
Summers: Fed cannot lower inflation to target without an economic downturn
“My own view, and I've said this many times, is that what Samuel Johnson said about second marriage is true about soft landings. They represent the triumph of hope over experience, and I don't think we're likely to be able to bring inflation down to its target …”
Mostak: Only 5 or 6 Foundation Model Companies Will Exist in 3-5 Years
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years.”
Mostaque: AI Will Eliminate All Outsourced Programming Jobs in India
“India, all of the outsourcing jobs in programming will go, because GPT-IV can go level three Google programmer exam and pass it.”
Mostaque: AI Will Build Software Automatically, Eliminating Human Coders
“Why would you need a human for that if the AI gets better and better at coding? Just tell it what you want. I want to create an app for 20 minute VC that has these features. Of course it will go and build it automatically. Where is the human coder in that?”
Mostaque: Only five or six foundation model companies will survive
“I think that there's only going to be five or six foundation model companies in the world in three years, five years. ... I think it's going to be us, NVIDIA Google, Microsoft OpenAI, and Meta and Apple probably are the ones that train these models.”
LeCun: Human-level AI will not be achieved using autoregressive LLMs
“Well, so first of all, there is no question that eventually AI systems will understand the world in similar ways that, that humans do perhaps better ways but there will not be autoregressive large language models as a type that we're now talking about.”
LeCun: Autoregressive LLMs will be obsolete within a few years
“So my prediction is that within a few years, nobody in their right mind would use auto-reversive LLMs. They'll go away in favor of something more sophisticated and controllable. They can plan its answer as opposed to just produce one word after the other react…”
Ackman: Biden wealth tax will bankrupt every startup in America
“You know, the Biden wealth tax, which is like, 25% of the appreciation of things that you own privately, it's going to bankrupt every startup. No one will ever start a business in America anymore, right?”
BPI asked Ophelia Brown where her older male partner was
“The French, what's the French equivalent of EIF? BPI. BPI. They asked me where my older male partner was.”
Didi and the Chinese Government Had Full Access to Uber's Data
“It became very clear that everyone had all our data. Didi knew everything we were doing whereas, like, Lyft and Uber always knew what each other were doing, because we were watching each other, we're friends, things like that, but, like, we never had each othe…”
Lemkin: Employees joining a $1B unicorn in 2023 will make nothing
“If as an employee, if you join a company with, in, in 2023 with a valuation over a billion as an employee, you're gonna make nothing. It doesn't matter what it sells for, you're gonna make nothing.”
Emil Michael predicts Benchmark's fixed $435M fund model will fail
“That's why I think Benchmark ultimately is going to, is, has no innovation. Forget the reputation, which most entrepreneurs, if they do their deals, will find out about, but just not innovating stuck at four hundred thirty-five million for the next 10 years is…”
Holland: Fast never burned $10 million a month despite media reports
“The burn that's being reported by the media is not the real burn. Our burn was much lower. It was significantly lower. We've never done ten million dollars a month of burn before, right?”
Holland: Excessive burn rate killed Fast, not investor Stripe
“Having Stripe as an investor isn't what killed our company. Having too high a burn is what killed our company. There's just no other way to put it.”
Whatnot Will Have the Largest IPO in History by 2032
“We're the biggest social commerce marketplace in the western world. We've had the biggest IPO ever.”
Ed Baker: Uber secretly ran India test against CEO orders, doubling conversion
“We decided to run a test In Hyderabad, India, where we said, let's let riders request their first ride without putting a credit card number in. In fact, we were told by our CEO not to run that test because he felt so strongly against it, but we had so much con…”
Carney: Long-Term Interest Rates Will Rise Notably This Decade
“I believe that very central banker-y answer, but I believe long-term interest rates are going to rise, notably this decade. I long felt that we were in a low for long, and I felt that for a long time. I was right about it for a long time. Now I feel that there…”
Amazon and Alibaba will lose top e-commerce positions within 10 years
“I think in 10 years from now, Amazon and Alibaba will not be the biggest e-commerce companies anymore. They will get disrupted by other companies, younger companies, more creative, more agile companies, and I think people will look back at Amazon and Alibaba l…”
Ilishayev: GoPuff will be a multi-hundred billion dollar business by 2026
“And I think this business over the next five years is a multi-hundred billion dollar business.”
Cyan Banister: San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin refuses to prosecute crimes
“We have a DA, Chesta, who will not prosecute crimes. I just found out yesterday a friend of mine whose house was burglarized. The perpetrators were let out of San Quentin for COVID. They robbed his house, almost kicked in the door of his neighbor who had a chi…”
Peter Thiel Called Tesla a Bankrupt Idea Before Model S Shipped
“So like Tesla, I remember famously Peter Thiel's are saying it's a bankrupt idea. The battery technology will never scale. Batteries will never improve. UVs will never work. And I was like, wow, that was just before the Model S. I mean, literally a week before…”
Avi Meir: Business travel in 2021 will surpass 2019 levels
“I'm willing to bet That business travel will grow in twenty-twenty-one. Not based on twenty-twenty, based on twenty-nineteen.”
Khosla: OpenAI's AGI Could Eliminate the Need for Human Work
“OpenAI is going after a big, hairy, audacious goal of building an AGI. That, to me, is worth pursuing as an investment, but also for society. It may eliminate the need to work for society, Lots of issues there, but it could be really, really exciting if it wor…”
Facebook Will Launch a Crypto Coin and Become Bitcoin's Main Competitor
“Now, I will say also that on crypto, I think that there's a high probability that the company that will really succeed in crypto will be Facebook, and the reason is that for them to launch their own coin and for them to distribute that coin and allow developer…”
Lee predicts an imminent, massive crash in the ICO market
“So I fear that there's going to be a huge crash in the whole ICO market sometime soon.”
Altucher in 2015: Uber will become a trillion-dollar company
“They're ultimately a logistics company where on one side are people who want to do things for money, and on the other side are people who want to pay for services. So they're going to be an entire slice of kind of the world's, you know, GDP at some point. So, …”
Franceschetti: Eight Sleep engineers stopped writing code a year ago
“Well, our engineers stopped coding around a year ago, so since then they didn't code.”
Franceschetti predicts Eight Sleep will hit $1B revenue with 250 people in three years
“Two 50 people making a billion.”
Franceschetti: Children born today will never work due to AI
“Well, I don't think if a kid is born now, by the time they are 20 years old, they will ever work. By then, I think AI will be at a point where humans don't work.”
Lemkin: VCs will increasingly offer bad deal structures to win competitive rounds
“We will see deal structures that are objectively bad for the company done more and more often to win deals, whatever it takes.”
Greze predicts users will trust AI agents to autonomously share personal data
“I think you'll trust your agent to decide what data to share with other people without you intervening in five years.”
Greze: LLMs will replace human security teams in classifying and gating data
“As opposed to having humans in your compliance and security team over time, label data and decide what goes where and what can be accessed. I think we'll just start to trust LLMs to do that.”
Stebbings predicts Meta's stock price would rise if Mark Zuckerberg departed
“If Zuck expired, Meta's stock price would increase.”
Weitzman says GPU analysis helped identify and solve his father's prostate cancer
“It's already solved my dad's prostate cancer, because I figured out with a bunch of help from other people how to use GPUs to identify where in his body the lesion was.”
Cognition Reportedly Raising at $46B Valuation With $1.6B Projected ARR
“Cognition raising round at forty six billion dollars reportedly. They will end the year at 1.6 billion in ARR. Currently doing 800 to 900.”
Most European Point-Solution Startups Will Fail in the US Market
“And that's why your European startups, most of them are going to fail at least in the U S because they can't do much more with more, right? They're going to fail. Their little point solutions are just going to disappear in six months. We don't need those littl…”
Reyes: Model training and self-improvement will not stay exclusive to frontier labs
“And so I think that right now the, there's like a couple of companies that claim that, like, recursive self-improvement and model training will be only their domain. And I think in reality, many businesses will have access to that technology via software servi…”