The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 49 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 49 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Chollet: AGI Codebase Will Be Under 10,000 Lines on 1980s Compute
“I do believe that, you know, when you create a GI retrospectively, it will turn out that it's a code base that's less than 10,000 lines of code. And that if you had known about it back in the 19 eighties, you could have done a GI back then using the computer r…”
Musk: Digital superintelligence will arrive by 2026 for sure
“Like, I think we're quite close to digital superintelligence. It may happen this year, and if it doesn't happen this year, next year for sure. Digital superintelligence is defined as smarter than any human at anything.”
Musk predicts Mars will be self-sustaining within roughly 30 years
“I think we'll have enough mass transferred to Mars within like roughly 30 years to make Mars self-sustaining, such that Mars can continue to grow and prosper, even if the resupply shifts from Earth stop coming.”
Huang: Physical AI will be NVIDIA's next $100B business within 10 years
“Likely this will be one of the largest industries in the world, and it'll take longer than a couple, two, three years. It'll take less than 10, and so this will be our next hundred billion dollar business.”
Hassabis: AI might solve a Millennium Prize math problem within years
“When I say just, we're now talking about just like solving the Riemann hypothesis or something. This would be obviously amazing. Well, one of the Millennium Prize problems, and maybe we're a couple of years out from doing that.”
Chollet: AI in 50 Years Will Not Use Today's LLM Stack
“I personally don't think that machine learning or AI in 50 years is still going to be built on this stack.”
Musk: Humanoid robots will outnumber all other robots combined tenfold
“There's gonna be so many humanoid robots, and robots of all sizes and shapes, but my prediction is that there will be more humanoid robots by far than all other robots combined, by maybe an order of magnitude, like a big difference.”
Wang: AI tools will increase businesses on Meta to billions
“There's two hundred million businesses that are on Metis platforms today. We think that number should go to billions with this explosion of creativity and using AI tools”
Cherny: Claude Opus 5 Can Run Autonomously for Months Without Scaffolding
“For five, one example of something it does that I think no other model has done is it runs for a very long period of time. And especially when you combine Opus Five with auto mode, it's just like incredible. Like it can go for days, weeks, months at a time. It…”
Huang: Most software will be built agentically, elevating systems thinking
“In the case of software most software is going to be done agentically anyhow, so you have to be much more able to think abstractly about systems.”
Tan: AI token compute costs will drop drastically within two years
“I mean, basically because the frontier models are that good, like, you know, I think that in two years, like, That'll be a 100,000 and, you know, down to 10,000 and a thousand. I mean, basically these orders of magnitude are about to happen.”
Franceschi: AI Token Spend Will Become Every Company's Biggest Expense
“I think the, you know, it will be the biggest expense in a company, like easily.”
Tan: $100K AI token workloads will drop to $200 in two years
“What you spend a 100,000 or a million dollars a year on now, it will be commonplace like in, in two years, right? It'll, it won't cost a 100,000 in a year. It'll cost 10,000. And the year after that, it'll be like a couple hundred bucks, right? And everyone wi…”
Graham: YC startups returning home are half as likely to become unicorns
“YC now has a lot of data about this, and the startups that go home after YC don't do as well as the ones that stay. Startups that go home back, startups that go back home after YC are only about half as likely to become unicorns”
Massad: By Agent 5, Replit will autonomously build and market SaaS daily
“So I think perhaps Agent Five, or maybe sooner, you should be able to tell Replit, every day build me a SaaS company, and like, try to market it, and see what works, and make me some revenue.”
Chollet: Future AI Won't Just Be Layered Harnesses on Base LLMs
“Future AI in a few decades it's not going to be this harness on top of a reasoning model on top of a base LLM.”
Hodak: BCIs will achieve native 20/20 vision and color within 10 years
“I mean, I do think that you can get to close to native acuity, so kind of like your normal twenty-twenty vision. We're definitely not there yet, but I see a path to get there and be able to get Color and fill in a lot of the field of view. To be clear that it'…”
Levie: 100 Startups Created Between 2024-2028 Will Reach $5B to $20B Valuations
“There will be 100 startups that get created between last year and in three years from now that all become five, 10, twenty billion dollar companies because they're able to find the next set of nouns and verbs”
Masad: Developers will reliably run 1,000 concurrent AI agents within two years
“Or plus, which I assume we're going to get to in the next couple of years, you can really spin up a thousand agents, give them a lot, thousand problems, and reliably be confident that like, 95% of them is going to work.”
Masad: Next-gen coding AI will train via AlphaZero-style RL, not human code
“My bet is that Pretty soon we're going to move into more of the alpha zero style of training where you have a more traditional LM that's trained on all of the internet. But then the way to train the next generation of it would be to give it a reinforcement lea…”
Srinivas: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Both Build Their Own Browsers
“That said, I'm fully working with the assumption that OpenAI will also build its own browser. Anthropic will also try to build its own browser.”
Srinivas: Perplexity can reach billions annually in subscription revenue alone
“We think, like, we can grow at least, you know, a few billions a year in just subs, which is a great business.”
Altman: ChatGPT will become third biggest website, possibly first
“It'll be the third at some point, hopefully someday the first if our current growth rates continue”
Musk: Humanoid robots will outnumber humans five to tenfold
“I mean, I'd predict that there's gonna be,
At least five times as many humanoid robots as there are humans, maybe 10 times.”
Search industry revenue must decline as users shift directly to AI agents
“Search revenue has to go down in a world where people are just directly talking to AIs and agents are doing stuff for them.”
Preskill: Superconducting circuits and trapped ions will lead for 5-10 years
“The most advanced are superconducting circuits and trapped ions, which is why I mentioned those first, and I think that will remain true, you know, over the next five to 10 years.”
Bartram: Tech interviewer agreement rates match online movie reviewer agreement
“A pretty interesting stat we dug up is I compared the rate of agreement between interviewers at companies with a data set of users reviewing movies online, right? And the numbers were actually, were basically, and the integrator agreement was equivalent.”
Scholl: Boom will deliver its first natural gas turbine within 12 months
“The first super power turbines under construction right now and goes to the first customer in less than 12 months.”
Hassabis: Gemini sometimes identifies chess blunders and plays them anyway
“And so what we see is that, you know, sometimes it will consider a move. It will realize it's a blunder, but it can't find anything better, so it kind of goes back to that move and does it anyway.”
Hassabis: A full virtual cell simulation is probably 10 years away
“And I think we're about 10 years away probably from something like a virtual cell, like a full virtual cell”
Lu Catches Startup Slashy Stealing an Image From Notion
“Oh wow, they're actually stealing, like, a Notion picture here.”
Joseph: Adversaries actively publish web data designed to poison AI models
“There are people who are, like, trying to put stuff out that is, like, as damaging as possible for the model, you know, how can I make it past the filter and get into the model would be totally like secretly useless.”
Chollet: Ten random people with majority voting score 100% on ARC-2
“And all tasks in Arc-II were sold by at least two other people that saw it. And each task was seen on average by about seven people. And so what that tells you is that a group of 10 random people with majority voting would score 100% on Arc-II.”
Preskill: Quantum computers will impact chemistry, carbon capture, and materials
“The Ones which will affect everyday life, I think, are better methods for understanding and inventing new materials, new chemical compounds. Things like that can be really important. You know, if you find a better way of capturing carbon by designing a better …”
3D home printing can reduce construction costs from $6,500 to $3,000
“So right now our homes on average are about 6500 dollars per home. We believe with three D home printing, we can get that down to about 3000 dollars over time, not in the beginning, but over time,”
Buchheit: Commercial supersonic flights will reach Tokyo in six hours by 2028
“In 10 years, when you wanna go to Tokyo, you're gonna get there in, like, six hours.”
Sloan predicts Facebook updates and Instagram photos will be gone by 2050
“I would not bet against everything that we're pouring into kind of the vast digital box, you know, like everything, the Facebook updates, the Instagram photos, all of it basically being gone in 2060, 20, 50. Like, I hope that's not the case, and I mean, it see…”
Chou: Ploy slurps, recreates, and refactors websites in 75 seconds
“And in about 75 seconds, we would have slurped the existing site, recreated all the components, refactored it, and you get this.”
Hodak: Science implant will treat retinitis pigmentosa and Stargardt disease
“One of the nice things about our device is that it doesn't We're somewhat agnostic to the reason that you lost the photoreceptors, and so we think it'll also work for retinitis pigmentosa, for Stargardt's, for these other indications.”
Tan: GigaML Automated 30,000 Zepto Customer Support Tickets Daily
“So last time I did office hours with them, they said that they automated 30,000 tickets per day.”
Brillhart: By 2028, virtual reality will no longer be called "VR"
“I don't see it being called VR. Like, I just don't see it. I think that it's all gonna go to a different kind of place. I think, yeah, I think it'll be called something else.”
Gil: Didi will become a company worth over $100 billion
“I think they own 15 to 20% of Didi, which in and of itself is gonna be a hundred billion dollar plus company, so I actually think that worked out really well for them.”
Adhikari: Michelson interferometers won't be used for gravitational waves in a century
“If you ask in a hundred years from now, will people still build Michelson laser interferometers and do the same thing? Right. I have a hard time believing that's true.”
Bilgen: Current facility can scale to nearly two million tests annually
“We believe that we can expand into close to two million tests per year just using this facility. That would be, you know, around essentially every one in three babies that would be tested with our tests.”
Friedman: Variance emerges from stealth with $21M Series A
“We are announcing that Variance is coming out of stealth and announcing their twenty-one million dollar Series A, and I am really excited to be here with Karine, the co-founder of Variance.”
Lapsa: Stoke Space factory can build about seven vehicles per year
“The facility is designed to build about seven vehicles per year.”