The Ledger
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why aren't all 404 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 35 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Habib: Software engineers will be among the first jobs automated by AGI
“When we do get towards things that look like AGI, I suspect that developers will actually be one of the first jobs to see large fractions of their job be automated, which I think is very counterintuitive but also predicting the future is hard, so.”
Doctorow: Disrupting Big Tech platforms will win public and regulatory backing
“Our willingness to trust that big firms have our interests at heart and that the processes that regulate them Are on the side of the public interest and not the side of the firm's parochial interest. That, that is coming to an end. And so if you want to be whe…”
Rossmann predicts a higher education bubble will pop, closing many colleges
“I think there's going to be a pop in a sort of higher ed bubble where a lot of colleges are going to go out of business and it's going to be a lot of pain in higher ed because of this factor.”
Best: Media will see a meteoric rise of individual creators
“So I'm not saying that everything's going to be individuals and there's not going to be any big sort of media things, but I think it's going to look like there's a meteoric rise of individual creation.”
Best: Newsletters will replace social feeds for news within five years
“I think the answer is it won't replace the social network aspect of it. The thing that Facebook and the social networks are great at is having the relationship between you and like the people, you know, in real life... The part of it that should absolutely be …”
Halligan: All B2B Enterprise Software Will Transition to Consumer Freemium Models
“And I think this will happen, all B to B enterprise software will turn, turn into consumer software, where they'll come over a tripwire,
And they'll buy the software in a much more natural way.
And sales reps can call on customers versus on prospects.”
Allred: ML will soon predict candidate software engineering success before tuition
“Pretty soon you can underwrite the likelihood that a person will be a successful software engineer before they've paid a dollar.”
Altman: Arrival of advanced AI will make human intelligence less beneficial
“I think one thing that will happen with the sort of arrival of, HEI is intelligence. Like, I got lucky, I got born reasonably smart will be less and less of a benefit.”
Garg: The company cracking food personalization will win the sector long-term
“I still today think that the power of personalization, what Amazon brings to e-commerce and what Netflix and Spotify bring to movies and music. That level of personalization has not taken off in food. And just like Google with search, the company that cracks i…”
Gil: Crypto ideas will fail before succeeding in 10 to 15 years
“And I think the same thing is true in the crypto world where there's still a real lack of infrastructure in crypto. And so there's all sorts of really interesting ideas of how you decentralize different services. And I think many of those things will fail. And…”
Gil: A subset of current crypto projects will become massive like Amazon
“And then in parallel, I think there's things that exist today that are sort of the Amazons of crypto that are gonna be massive in their own right and already exists. You know, maybe it's Bitcoin, maybe it's Ethereum, maybe it's a privacy token like Monero, Zca…”
Preskill: Validated topological qubit may appear as soon as 2019
“And it's very ambitious, because at this point, it's not even clear they have a single qubit, but if that approach is successful, and we're, it's making progress, so I think we will see a validated Qubit of this type soon, maybe next year.”
Preskill: Superconducting circuits and trapped ions will lead for 5-10 years
“The most advanced are superconducting circuits and trapped ions, which is why I mentioned those first, and I think that will remain true, you know, over the next five to 10 years.”
Garg: The biggest crypto winners will likely re-centralize in Silicon Valley
“I think you could have the inspiration for ideas come from underserved markets, but I wouldn't be surprised if the really big winners in crypto actually sort of re-centralize around Silicon Valley.”
Brundage: Scalable AI vulnerability discovery could cause a catastrophic cyber attack
“It could be that you know, something truly catastrophic could happen if you sort of combine the, Scalability of AI and digital technology in general with, like, the adaptability of human intelligence for, like, finding vulnerabilities. If you put those togethe…”
Bromberg: Massive Number of Token Companies Will Fail Running Out of Money
“The reality of the situation is that a massive number of token companies are going to crash and burn because they run out of money and their network will never really reach its potential.”
Bromberg: Regulators Will Classify Almost All Token Sales as Securities
“I think that what will happen is that the regulators are going to say, these are almost all securities. You can't just sell these tokens to anyone on the public markets.”
Altman: Investor leverage over founders is gone and won't return soon
“The network has gotten big enough that the asymmetry that used to exist Where investors had a lot of leverage is gone, and I don't think it will come back anytime soon.”
Altman: Crowdfunded token raises will prove why securities laws exist
“I think this idea that, like, everyone is going to just raise money from the crowd, like, I think we'll find out that we have securities laws for a reason, and that we want some level of that”
Altman: Silicon Valley's startup dominance will weaken relatively quickly
“And if I disagree with anything, it would be how quickly that will spread outside of Silicon Valley. I think it may happen relatively quickly. So there's still a question of how long, there's still a question of how long does Silicon Valley Remain the absolute…”
Urban: Humanity Faces Impending Extinction or a Radical Utopian Paradigm Shift
“It's either going to be the coolest story for humans or it's the end. This is the, That is a, it is a 501 page book. And that's it. Or this is the beginning of like the new paradigm. We have a new BC AD situation. We have a BC, which is like before something t…”
Brockman: AI research will be automated before other human jobs
“I think it's actually not AI researcher. The AI researcher will kind of go before. It's actually very interesting when you ask people this question. I think that everyone tends to say whatever their job is as well as the hardest one. But I actually think that …”
Hoover: Eventually a majority of people will spend their lives in VR
“I also almost don't see a future where at some point that's where a majority of people spend their lives because we're already pretty close.”
Greene: Enterprise tech will consolidate into four clouds immune to startup disruption
“Everything's going to be in just a few, maybe four clouds or so, you know, there's not going to be that many of them, because like, we spend about ten billion a year in infrastructure, and so it's not going to Get disrupted by a startup, unless they invent qua…”
Benet: Blockchain apps will reach mainstream consumers within two years
“So I think it's gonna take about a year or two before you start seeing these things get mainstream consumer use.”
Benet: Ethereum could reach Google or Apple valuations in 5-10 years
“So if Ethereum continues to be useful five, 10 years from now, you're going to have, and continues to accrue continues to grow, right? So if Ethereum becomes more and more successful, continues to solve a whole bunch of problems, then an ether is going to be w…”
Benet: Decentralized storage nodes will beat AWS on unit economics
“Our bet there is that yes, that there's a whole bunch of places and cases where Certain individuals or groups in the world have access to either really cheap storage or storage that's positioned well in the network that is kind of like, you know, somewhere bet…”
Shanahan: Supercomputers will reach human brain scale computing within two years
“Well, depending on how you calculate it, we're pretty close to human brain scale computing already in the world's fastest supercomputers. And we will get there within the next couple of years.”
Hwang: AutoML could eliminate the need for machine learning specialists
“This emerging research right now, which is using machine learning to train machine learning systems, raises, like, this meta level, where, like, right now there's a lot of handwork that goes into building a model so it learns the right representations, but, li…”
Zuckerberg: VR and AR will be the next major computing platform
“There's going to be another platform after that. And I think that's going to be a virtual reality and augmented reality.”
Wang: Each successive AI modality and form factor will dwarf the last
“We're gonna keep seeing these new modalities and form factors and developments of the AI paradigm that will each be dramatically bigger than the last.”
Scholl: Boom will deliver its first natural gas turbine within 12 months
“The first super power turbines under construction right now and goes to the first customer in less than 12 months.”
Altman: The Bay Area remains the best place to find co-founders
“Like, I think, I don't know if this is still gonna be true for the next 10 years. I suspect it will be, but the best thing you could do if you wanted to, like, find your people to do a startup with was to move to the Bay Area. You just, like, magic happened. Y…”
Chou: Massive Companies Will No Longer Dominate in the Future
“And I actually think there's going to be way more small business in the future. You're not going to have like massive companies anymore that are dominating.”
Garry Tan: Hardware and Parameter Limits Prevent AI from Eliminating Jobs
“This is actually an answer to one of the questions, which is like, will there be jobs or whatever? It's like, as long as there are limits on RAM, actually like there will be. So I don't know. I mean. Kind of an interesting one, right? Literally you can't have …”
Franceschi Predicts That AI Tokens Will Eventually Become Free
“Sure, if tokens are so expensive, they're going to be, I think over the fullness of time, probably free.”
Hassabis: Frontier model capabilities reach tiny edge models within 6-12 months
“But I think for now there's the assumption we make is that, you know, a year later after one of our leading, you know, pro models or frontier models goes out half a year later, you'll have them in the,
The really tiny, almost edge models.”
Hassabis: Chip manufacturing will bottleneck AI inference for decades
“Certainly the energy, if we solve fusion or, you know, superconductors or, you know, optimal batteries or some set of those things, which I think we will do with material science, energy costs will be essentially zero, but there'll still be the physical creati…”
Hassabis: A full virtual cell simulation is probably 10 years away
“And I think we're about 10 years away probably from something like a virtual cell, like a full virtual cell”
Hassabis: Almost Every Future Drug Will Use AlphaFold During Discovery
“I was told by some of my, you know, pharma executive friends that, you know, almost every drug Discovered from now on will have used alpha fold at some point in it, in the drug discovery process.”
Hassabis: AI will eventually invent new foundational math and science problems
“I do think these systems will be eventually be able to do that. Maybe we were missing one or two things.”
Vuong: A Cambrian explosion of vertical robotics startups is coming worldwide
“But, you know, myself personally, I believe there's going to be a Cambrian explosion of robotic company across the entire world and across many, many different vertical. Just because it's just so much cheaper to build, and it doesn't require you know, someone …”
Chollet: Mathematics AI Revolution Is Coming in the Next Few Years
“I think mathematics is also, it's also primed to see a revolution in the next few years for the same reasons, again, because The domain just gives you verifiable rewards.”
Mukund Jha: SaaS companies must pivot to become agent-first to survive
“One is more and more of these SaaS workflows are going to get consumed by an agent, right? Like, so, like you know, unless your SaaS company pivots into like an agent first company you know, I think that's going to be hard to sort of survive.”
Hodak: Bio-hybrid BCIs are only necessary for high-end medical applications
“And I think biohybrid in particular is only really necessary for some of like the very highest end things. And on the flip side, it will be harder to deploy for many other important medical needs and important applications along the way. And we'll probably be …”
Steinberger: Only apps with physical sensors may survive displacement by AI
“Only the apps that actually have sensors, maybe they survive.”
French-Owen: Software developers will all become AI managers in the future
“I think in some sense, you're right that like everyone is going to become a manager in the future, or at least that's my hot take. But in order to get there are steps along the way and you have to really build a lot of trust in the model and understand what it…”
French-Owen: Solo engineers using AI will outperform large enterprise teams
“And I think it's going to be very strange as, like, these individual teams of, like, one person are like, hey, that team over there isn't doing the right thing, like, let me just build a prototype that, like, works better. I think at some point it's going to s…”