The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 247 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 31 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Doherty: Apple will meaningfully build spatial memory tech within five years
“I think that Apple will start, like, working on this in a really meaningful way in the next, like, Five years.”
Howie Diamond: Ride iQ will take our money in 18 months
“They'll take our money in a year and a half from now. ... They will. Trust me.”
Braima: Africa will hold one-third of global youth within seven years
“In seven years, Africa will be home to a third of the global population of youth.”
Braima: One in five internet users will be in Africa by 2050
“By twenty-fifty, one out of every five customers on the internet will be in Africa.”
Tobias predicts Kimoyo will exit for mid-double-digit millions, not $100M+
“I don't think it ends up being a billion dollar exit, or even a hundred million dollar exit. I think it ends up being a maybe mid double digits exit.”
Braima insists Kimoyo will become at least a $200 million business
“How do you not see that this is going to be like, you know, at least at the minimum, a couple hundred million dollar business?”
DotCal will become a billion-dollar company via shared scheduling
“We're gonna look back in a few years and be like, oh, dot cow became a billion dollar company because of shared.”
Dotcal's absolutely ridiculous valuation is going to get even more ridiculous
“And by the way, the valuation is ridiculous. It's absolutely ridiculous, but it's going to be even more ridiculous.”
Medina: Automakers lacking vehicle-to-grid tech will face massive competitive disadvantages
“All manufacturers are going to be V-IIG, like any car manufacturer in the future that doesn't have that is going to be at a significant competitive disadvantage compared to the ones that do.”
Nadel: Tampax or o.b. can crush Aunt Flow on price
“I think that that's a better way to go, but then I'm worried about the competition, because a company like Tampax, or if they want the eco-solution OB, can crush her in terms of price.”
Phil Nadel predicts broad shift to onshoring manufacturing for products
“There's going to be a whole move to onshoring lots of different products.”
Laguerre: Autonomous trucking will initially operate via five-truck platooning systems
“In order for autonomous to really take a full effect, our entire infrastructure, we have to change number one, but however, I do see autonomous working early on for long distance load and how that worked is they're doing that through a platooning system.
Where…”
Autonomous trucking will complement Fleeting by increasing final-mile driver demand
“Autonomous
does not
Pretty much affect our business, as a matter of fact, and complement our business, because trucking companies are, will be looking to hire a lot of part-time drivers to drive these truck off the ramps to their final destination.”
Hyatt: Spot On Will Consume Immense Capital Scaling B2C Marketing
“But as soon as you actually start going wider and actually start putting marketing money in, one thing you're going to find about a B to C, you will drink capital marketing this business. This is going to be horrendously expensive to scale.”
Yin: Competitors will easily copy Pepper's small-cup bras if they succeed
“If you start to do well, I'm pretty certain other people will crack the nut. Like, I don't believe this is rocket science, so this is like a first mover hustle advantage”
Charles Hudson predicts Virtual Gurus will command a 1x-2x revenue multiple
“I think it's going to be a one to two X multiple on, because I think it's going to look like a services business for its entirety. And it's going to look like a really Profitable one, but those are one to two X multiple businesses.”
Michael Hyatt predicts Virtual Gurus will eventually hit $20 million in revenue
“This revenue is going to get to twenty million and getting in at two and a half. Think about it. It's one of the best VC returns you'd have.”
Madho: Advanced manufacturing's future is localized microfactories
“The future of advanced manufacturing is localized microfactory production.”
Lee: Rooted Calculates Three-Year Customer LTV at Around $150
“And we think that an average LTV probably looks at around three years. And so we've calculated that that would be around a 150 dollars.”
Fox: The winner in social music will be platform-agnostic
“The winner of the social space will be agnostic. Whether you get your music from your coworker, your girlfriend, Or even your favorite athlete or celebrity, they might not have the same music service as you. They might have Apple Music, you have Spotify, and s…”
Wang: Boundless relies on high retention for subsequent immigration filings
“In two years, they have to go from a conditional to a permanent green card, which is another transaction, and then a year after that, they can do naturalization, which is another transaction. There's no reason they would go to anyone else for their future appl…”
Skisov: Karate in the Olympics will fail miserably
“And with karate going into Olympics in I, you know, they're gonna fail miserably. They don't know it yet.”
Chapman: Howie Diamond is going to lose out by passing on Hykso
“Howie's going to lose out on this one.”
Ben Walters: Dynamic pricing will inevitably become standard in restaurants
“Prices are going to be changing at restaurants. I'm like, I'm convinced, and I've had a lot of conversations with a lot of smart people, and everyone is also with me that the way that the pricing is working right now, it just doesn't make sense.”
Sirota: Waggit will reach $40M revenue in three years
“So, our three-year revenue is forty million with a 55% margin.”
Manus questions if competitor Albert could replicate Cushion's fee negotiation
“Then why couldn't Albert do this? They probably could.”
Diamond: Atomos Will Either Go to Zero or Reach $20 Billion
“This is a company that will go to zero or it'll be a 20, twenty billion dollar company.”
Stanton: Somewear buyers will put devices away and cancel subscriptions
“I worry that your initial acquirers are going to be end up sticking in the drawer and not using it and canceling because I ultimately think this is something you rent episodically and that has a higher volume of usage for you than someone who buys it and does …”
Dominguez: Immersive media will produce dedicated search engines like prior formats
“Search engines evolve out of every new content type. We've seen this in the past with the websites with Google, products and images with Pinterest, videos with YouTube, and GIFs with Giphy. Immersive content will be no different.”
Soininen expects to raise at a valuation above $4M in the fall
“I think you know, we, I believe we can raise money at a bigger valuation than four at this point. We just, you know, need to clarify that focus a little bit and that's what we're doing. So I think, you know, once we show that we'll be able to raise at a bigger…”
Candee: Bounce will be incredibly well positioned to do delivery
“Yeah, so I think we're going to be incredibly well positioned to do delivery.”
Chelsea Lee: All e-commerce logistics will be on-demand in 3-5 years
“Fundamentally, we believe that all logistics will be on demand. All e-commerce will be on demand in the next three, five years, right?”
Hudson: Shipsi will end up relaxing its one-hour delivery promise
“I don't think one, I think you're going to end up relaxing this one hour thing.”
Manus: Amazon will compete in retail delivery within one to two years
“I'm thinking more like a year down the line. I'm thinking a year to do two years down the line. I, to be able to turn that on is nothing for them.”
Michael Hyatt: 98% of Cryptocurrencies Will Eventually Be Washed Out
“I think that cryptocurrency in general is like, I think a like good 98% of it's gonna get washed out, and I think you know that as well.”
Sarabia: Fraudulent rehab centers won't survive beyond this year
“Those guys will be, they'll be gone. You know, insurance is cracking us so hard on that, that they'll be gone in the You know, in a couple months. I don't foresee them surviving beyond this year.”
Kugel: Tire Agent can make $100K profit per truck
“I believe you can make about a 100,000 dollars a truck in profit, not including if I add wheels.”
Wang: Boundless will retain green card customers for subsequent immigration applications
“In two years, they have to go from a conditional to a permanent green card, which is another transaction, and then a year after that, they can do naturalization, which is another transaction. There's no reason they would go to anyone else for their future appl…”
Hyatt: Kuriyama needs $5M to $10M in VC to fend off clones
“I think he needs five, ten million bucks. I think he needs to go hard or go home. I'm telling you, this thing is, Is, is so going to be copied.”
Nadel: Big tech platforms will replicate 1 Second Everyday and crush it
“He'll get some more traction, and then they'll introduce it, and they'll crush him.”
Manus: Teenagers will view unGlue as punitive rather than buying in
“I don't see a teenager buying into this. You know, I see that they're going to be presuming this as punitive.”
Schwartz predicts screen-time management market will consolidate to one or two players
“Yeah, I think it will be probably one or two players. That's why I see it. And the one or two players will be the ones that the kids will like, or will hate the least. If not, you don't want to look at it. That's how it will play out.”
Phil Nadel predicts unGlue will exit at a scale too small for VCs
“I think you're going to have a successful business, and maybe a successful exit, but I think the scale of that will be relatively small from our perspectives, but maybe a great result for you.”
Hudson: Parental control app prices will fall to 99 cents then free
“And there's two or three others, and I just worry that The market-clearing price for this ends up being 99 cents until it's free.”
Schwartz: unGlue will solve device addiction and investors will regret passing
“And actually I think it's fortunate for the world because we will solve this problem for the next generation.
and this will be something that everyone will look back and like, yeah, that was one of the things we should have invested in, and that's fine, rig…”
Schwartz: Apple must collaborate with screen-time startups like unGlue
“Do I believe that Apple will do something about this? Absolutely, and I think that Apple is, you know, not an expert in this space, and they will have to do something in collaboration with other companies that are experts in this space like Unglue.”