The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 33 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Friedberg: Cellular agriculture will replace all animal agriculture this century
“There's a lot of engineering stuff we got to get over to make it work at scale, which there's about a 150 companies doing today, but they're going to succeed. And as a result, we're going to be able to replace all of animal agriculture this century.”
Podcasters have zero money: B2C podcast tools are a terrible business
“Podcasters have zero money. They're the worst people to sell to. There's all these companies that are raising money right now for like podcasting apps, like all of these tools. And I just am laughing in the background. Cause there's just, I know this industry,…”
Isenberg: Converting Legacy SaaS to Outcome Pricing Is a Billion-Dollar Opportunity
“So my, you know, my big point with all this is someone's going to build a billion dollar business doing nothing but converting Okay, converting legacy SaaS to outcome pricing.”
Isenberg: First solo unicorn is probably coming between 2026 and 2028
“AI provides the leverage, so if you have the right product, the right marketing, the right timing, the right person the first solo unicorn is probably coming in 2026 to 20 28.”
Isenberg: Most customer support will be automated within 36 months
“Most customer support will be automated within 36 months. Not just tier one tickets, complex, multi-step resolution that previously required senior support staff.”
98% of middle schools will require locked phone pouches within 10 years
“My guess is in 10 years, 98% of middle schools are requiring people to put their phone in a pouch and lock it during the day.”
Tossell: A two-person company will generate hundreds of millions by 2027
“We'll have a company pulling in like hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue, and it'll be like one or two people actually running that, that company.”
Pal: The majority of the English-speaking internet will soon be Indian
“Soon, the majority of the English speaking internet will be Indian. So, and he explains an apparent and a little bit after that is that the conversations you have online, the highest probability is that they will be Indians. They will not be Americans. They'll…”
Calacanis: Disney's streaming bundle will reach one billion subscribers
“I think that between Disney, Hulu, ESPN plus, they're going to get to a billion subscribers.”
Friedberg: Earth will deplete its phosphorus reserves in about 100 years
“We're gonna run out of phosphorus in about a hundred years. That's how much we're mining out of the ground, and how little there is left.”
Bloom: Psychedelic criminalization will be substantially reduced by 2031
“I do think in 10 years, it's hard to imagine the level of criminalization around psychedelics as exists today, and so if you were out in front of it and building
You should reap outsized rewards for doing that.”
Isenberg: Fully Autonomous Businesses Will Soon Reach Eight-Figure Revenues
“I think that we're going to get to a point where these ambient businesses or autonomous businesses are going to start doing seven, eight figures.”
Isenberg: Tech Will See 10-Person, Then One-Person Billion-Dollar Companies
“I think we're going to see that sooner, and then we're going to see the one-person billion-dollar company.”
Postma predicts AI will fully automate medical scribe jobs within five years
“So this person, like it's going to be taught, like people don't like to hear it, but this person is going to be automated by AI because you have open AI whisper. It can literally transcribe what you're saying. You use another LLM to summarize it and you're don…”
Yanowitz: Men's personal care market will grow 20x like women's did
“The women's Personal care market. Went from twenty seven billion in 1997 to five hundred and eleven billion, right? It grew about 20 X in the last 25 years. I think the men's care market is about to do the same thing.”
Lavingia: Robot soccer will replace human soccer in 10 to 15 years
“My guess is 1015 years from now, we'll start, you know, we'll, we'll be watching robots play soccer instead of humans”
Isenberg predicts MrBeast will be a top 10 global billionaire by 45
“I think that Mr. Beast will be the top 10 wealthiest people in the world by the time he's 45.”
Pal: Dogecoin will likely become Elon Musk's currency for streaming payments
“Doge is likely to be his currency. What does that mean? It's still decentralized in some method, not hugely so, but yes, he's a large stakeholder in it, but I'm guessing he'll use it as streaming payments for his cars.”
Belsky predicts the number of small businesses will 10x by 2032
“And in 10 years from now, I think we're going to see probably 10 X the number of small businesses as there are today.”
Vaynerchuk: Brands Will Account for Only 10-20% of OpenSea Sales by 2026
“I think it'll be 10% brands, 20% brands. I think you'll see publishers, gaming companies, like IP that we, right now, VFriends, Bored Ape, Cool Cats, IP getting established, but you're gonna see Hello Kitty, you're gonna see the Flintstones, so you're gonna se…”
Apolo Ohno: Esports will probably become an Olympic sport
“Like, esports will probably become an Olympic sport at some point.”
Isenberg predicts a $1M 'Design Pickle for AI agents' will emerge
“And I assume that that's going to happen in, in this space as well. Like you'll be, someone is going to create the design pickle, but for, you know, AI and agents. So if you can do that there's a path to a million dollars. That's for sure. Maybe even more.”
Senra: Falling direct-response ad efficacy will drive shift to brand partnerships
“A lot of the direct response advertisers, they've noticed the efficacy of podcast ads because they're saturating the whole ecosystem has greatly declined. And a lot of podcasters are, I think you're just gonna see a lot more brand advertising in general.”
Coogan: Meta will generate dynamic ad text, video, and imagery
“Increasingly the text will be generated on the fly per user and a brand will just kind of show up with like, Hey, here's my product. Do your best to portray it in the great light. And Facebook is going to wind up generating video imagery, everything for your b…”
Coogan: SpaceX will launch robotic Mars missions at next transfer window
“When the next transfer window comes up,
I think SpaceX is going to definitely try and launch a rocket to get there, but it'll probably just be like robots.
And then the next one, they're going to launch like 10 rockets during that window.”
Coogan: Apple will never launch a device stripped of the App Store
“And then they're also never going to be in a situation where they, where apple says, Hey, we're launching a device and we deliberately nerfed it. So it doesn't have an app store. And you can't install Tik Tok or Roblox. Like they're just never going to do that…”
Wilkinson: Apple will probably add blood glucose sensing within five years
“Another bet would be to say, you know, in the next five years, Apple will probably have a blood glucose sensor and that people will start monitoring things like that in their health more and more and more.”
Isenberg: AI will enable real-time 1-of-1 personalized ads on AR and mobile
“So it only makes sense that with AI that AI is going to make the ability to create one of one ads that are gonna show up on your glasses, on mobile, on, on web, in real time.”
Kevin Rose predicts AI will allow interactive conversations with podcast hosts
“There's no doubt in my mind
That we go out and we train you know, all of AI on people's previous podcasts.
So let's say I'm listening to the Tim Ferriss show.
You could go in and say, I'm going to take that back catalog of 200 and some episodes, train on that …”
Sharma: Cadence will soon be a $100M brand
“This is, I think going to be a very clear a hundred million dollar brand very soon.”
Bloom: OpenSea will build or acquire a point-of-sale NFT insurance provider
“I imagine like OpenSea will work on this or will acquire a company that is going to do it.”