The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tony Kim: China has 30 to 40 potential robotics IPOs this year
“I'm looking at the current pipeline. I see 30, 40 potential IPOs this year in China.”
Miller: Monthly AI token spend will go well above $500M
“I'm very bullish that we're going to go well above that.”
Armstrong: AI Agents Will Use Base Wallets to Form an Agentic Economy
“We're also going to see AI agents have their own financial accounts, and we're powering that with the base, like, MCP API so they can have their own self-custodial wallet now and start to have a true agentic economy, paying for goods and services, hiring other…”
Wright: Space Data Centers Are Inevitable to Power Lunar and Martian Bases
“This is actually a debate that we have in terms of how soon it's going to happen, but it's definitely going to happen. Data centers in space is coming, and it makes sense, right? If you think about and you know, a lot of this is public, but what SpaceX is talk…”
Shadbolt: Quantum commercial adoption will precede cryptographic security risks
“You should get like an economic early warning sign essentially where you should see quantum computing companies Doing commercially impactful things, making money, and then eventually scaling towards systems that are big enough to be cryptographically relevant.”
Competitors will catch up to OpenAI's o1 reasoning model within six months
“O1 just came out. We haven't fully benchmarked on our side yet. It's definitely an improvement. And so open AI is ahead of everybody else. It's an improvement in reasoning which is good. We can talk about that later on, but I expect people will catch up within…”
Laffont: Top AI and tech unicorns will likely IPO within 24 months
“You know, some of them will probably go public in the next 12 to 24 months, so that'll be kind of one impact of it”
Maguire: SpaceX will deliver major direct-to-cell service by 2028
“And then I think in roughly twenty-twenty-eight, it's gonna be the year of direct to sell, and SpaceX talked about this publicly, but it's gonna take time, you know, they just acquired a bunch of spectrum, it takes time to get, you know, Antennas and phones op…”
Schimpf: Anduril will produce autonomous fighter jets in months
“We're making autonomous fighter jets. You know, like three years ago, we weren't believable to make autonomous fighter jets. Now we're doing it. And we're going to have them be produced in a production facility in like months from now.”
Serhant predicts a new Class A office development race in NYC
“I think now you're gonna have a Class A office race. So now, Ken Griffin, Vernado. Right? And those guys are going to do park, and I think it's 51st. They're just going to tear down all those buildings on 51st and just build a brand new tower to compete with t…”
Doricko: UFC Will Host a Fight at the White House by July 2026
“I think that's also free money. I think that we live in clown world and there will be a UFC fight there.”
Kim: Tech industry layoffs in 2025 will be lower than in 2024
“I would actually bet that there would be less.”
Klein predicts federal AI regulation focused on deepfakes will pass in 2025
“I think there will be some sort of regulation, right? Like, especially around like deep fakes or, you know, video, like it feels like you, if you use AI generated video to, you know, cause pain or harm or reputational harm to someone is that standalone AI regu…”
Tunguz: Consumer AI will surpass one billion users in 2025
“So you're kind of approaching the billion user number in consumer AI. I think we'll definitely surpass that this year.”
Immerman: Elon Musk has 90%+ odds of becoming world's first trillionaire
“Well, if that market existed today, I think it would probably be like 90% plus odds on Elon. He's like pretty close at this point. Depending on, you know, where his companies go out he's certainly the favorite. So I would definitely bet on him.”
Steinman: The US will not mandate security clearances for AI engineers
“I think they should. I don't think they will. It's just really hard, right? Like you're gonna go to a private company and say these people have to have clearances.”
Agrawal: At least one of Klarna, Discord, Databricks, Cerebras, Anduril will IPO this year
“I think at least one of them will go public this year.”
Nolan: Turbines will likely be the bottleneck for expanding natural gas power
“Turbines will be the bottleneck most likely.”
Anthropic will inevitably reach AI Security Level 3, potentially by late 2025
“Whether security level three is going to be a thing. And I think the short answer is, yeah, it's just a question of time. And is it going to be this side of Christmas or after? I don't know yet”
AI will reason over three-hour screen recordings in two to three years
“I think it's inevitable that in about two or three years, we will have models that are multimodal, large context windows, are capable of reasoning over, say, three hours of a screen recording.”
SpaceX will complete more than 160 rocket launches in 2025
“I think it will for sure be above one 50, but given those options, above one 60, maybe even one 70.”
Fewer venture capital firms will raise opportunity or growth funds going forward
“I do think fewer people will raise opportunity funds or growth funds. I think that is likely.”
Bernauer predicts multiple nuclear entities will conduct fuel tests in 2026
“And I think others are going to do that same thing in that same year. So it won't even be just us. It'll be several different entities.”