The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 491 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Mavrookas: Saronic Corsairs rescued downed Apache pilots and attacked Iranian port
“Corsairs, which you just saw, were actively being used in the Straits of Hormuz. Two examples that were made public were one, the Apache pilot rescue of two down pilots, And then a offensive attack on an Iranian port, which actually took out an Iranian submari…”
Feldman: xAI leased GPUs to Anthropic because Grok lacked usage
“They had available capacity because the Grok model wasn't used very much. So they had these GPUs that were sitting around and that's a bad idea. And so they sold a whole block of them or released a whole block of them to Anthropic.”
Slotowicz: OpenAI recently announced internal plans to go public
“OpenAI just announced that they're going to be going public.”
Fishner-Wolfson claims OpenAI and Anthropic have confidentially filed S-1s
“SpaceX is the big one to kind of start this, but, I mean, as you mentioned, like, OpenAI and Anthropic are both valid. They're S-one's confidentially, so it's gonna be a pretty interesting, you know, few quarters in the public markets.”
Rangwalla: Anthropic Grew ARR From $9B in December to $30B
“It was nine billion dollars at the end of December, and that number was thirty billion, right? So they added twenty billion, they're adding, you know, ten billion plus or minus a month, almost two and a half billion dollars a week.”
McGee: Tim Cook Pledged $275B in Apple Investment to China
“They do their own supply chain study, sort of Apple internally, and realize that they're investing fifty-five billion dollars a year into Chinese factories, and once they've sort of established this, and they realize, like, how much that could mean to local an…”
McGee: Apple Funded Supply Ecosystem That Powered Huawei and Xiaomi
“Apple trained all of their suppliers, and then the suppliers in turn supplied Huawei, Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo. So that's why Nokia couldn't keep up. It's that China had this amazing ecosystem built for the smartphone industry, all paid for by Apple.”
Nucleus software analyzes embryo DNA to predict IQ, cancer risk, and traits
“So usually parents have a couple viable embryos, and now they can actually take the raw DNA files of them, upload to Nucleus, and we'll give you analysis on everything from cancers, to IQ, to eye color, to hair color, to schizophrenia risk.”
Sadeghi: Scientific research already links genetics directly to intelligence
“At the frontier of science, we do already have associations with genetics and intelligence, and we really believe in giving these insights to customers.”
Mavrookas: China outbuilds the United States in shipbuilding 230 to one
“China outbuilds the US 230 to one.”
Mavrookas: US shipbuilding capacity currently sits at 100,000 gross tons
“That's our initial build out that 1.5 X's the United States shipbuilding capacity right now, which sits at a 100,000 gross tons.”
Mavrookas: Saronic achieved first ever autonomous combat search and rescue
“Take the Apache pilot rescue, for example, that was the first ever combat search and rescue done with an autonomous system.”
Monroe-Anderson says 90% of Russian Shahed drones are intercepted midair
“Now that's really coming true, where, like, 90% of the DeepStrike Shawhead drones that Russia is using are getting taken out of the sky before they can even hit a target.”
Monroe-Anderson: China is supplying drone components to both Ukraine and Russia
“China is supplying drones and components to both sides. So to Ukraine and to Russia, and they have by far the strongest drone and just electronics industrial base.”
China completely dominates PCB precursor chemicals used in US defense systems
“Printed circuit boards, they use precursor materials. The manufacturing uses precursor materials that is completely dominated by China. So, even if you go to one of these board shops in America that, that specializes in, you know, ITAR, Exquisite, like, they c…”
Tony Kim: Chip companies have higher profit margins than software or pharmaceuticals
“They have the highest profitability of any company in the world of the sector is chip companies. They're higher margins than software, pharmaceuticals, industrials, telecom, anything.”
Friedberg: US billionaires hold $8T of $183T wealth while bottom 50% hold $4T
“And I was surprised that the billionaires had eight trillion dollars of the 183, and the bottom 50% have four trillion. That's a bad statistic. But it's not as crazy as you would think. And even if you make it a fifty million dollar net worth, it's 23 trillion…”
Liang: SambaNova serves 1.5T parameter models on one rack versus 10-20
“And so with sum it over, that minimum quantum is down to one rack. Right, where if you have other, other service providers, you just run, say, a DeepSeq model, which is now one and a half trillion parameters, just to run that, the minimum for some of the other…”
Armstrong: 80% of Crypto Trading Volume Moved Offshore
“Like most people don't know that 80% of the trading volume went offshore for crypto because of the lack of clarity in the US.”
Slotowicz: High-end private jets are appreciating in value for the first time
“These airplanes, you know, airplanes are equipment, right? They don't go up in value normally, but we're seeing them go up in value for the first time almost ever, especially in the higher end of the market.”
Slotowicz: FBO event landing slots can cost $20,000 to $40,000
“I mean, of course there's Superbowl and there's like all those, and sometimes those can get ridiculous. They could be in the twenties or thirties or 40,000 dollars just for a short slot to drop off or pick up.”
Weinberg: Lawyers cannot distinguish synthetic legal docs from human-written ones
“But the thing that happened with like the last generation of coding models is you can actually take sets of documents and create synthetic docs that are so good that the lawyers can't tell the difference between whether they're created, you know, by an actual …”
Facebook's early secondary policy inadvertently caused employees to quit to sell stock
“Facebook got big, and it turned out that the company kind of couldn't buy all their shares that were, that people were selling, because the dollar amount just got so big, and the volume got so high, and they basically started telling people, like, if you sell …”
Singerman claims a 12-year 3x venture fund loses to Vanguard
“A venture fund, like, three X's over the course of, like, 10 to 12 years, I don't even think that that beats the S&P. I'm pretty sure it, like, loses to a Vanguard no-load index fund.”
Adcock: Figure robots run entirely on Helix vision-language-action model
“You can't write code to make this work. So all of our robots here run on a neural network we call Helix. It's a vision language action model we designed here internally to tell the robot what to go do, to stay balanced, like how to move its joints basically fr…”
Adcock: No humanoid robot has demonstrated 7-10 failure-free autonomous hours daily
“I want to be able to put a robot into a home and be able to do, like, seven to 10 hours of work successfully without failures, with, like, to know, like, with no human intervention and do that every day forever. It's just, like, a hard problem. Nobody's ever s…”
Bry: Chinese government sanctioned Skydio and blocked component suppliers
“A year and a half ago, we had the great honor of being sanctioned by the Chinese government, and it was a pretty aggressive action. They announced the sanctions, and then they showed up at the suppliers that we still had in China, shut them down, stop them fro…”
Taneja: Anthropic restricted Mythos access to eliminate enterprise security debt
“They've had that model for a while. They did not release it. They thought a lot about it. And what did they do? They gave it to the companies to create an advantage to essentially eliminate you know, security debt in the existing infrastructure before more and…”
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle AI autonomously solved an unsolved Erdős math problem
“And now with Aristotle people are doing like systematic, they're going through them. And there was one that Aristotle solved fully autonomously. And then a bunch of others where Aristotle assisted in solving or converting into formal math language.”
Luckey: Anduril beat Boeing, Northrop, and Lockheed for USAF contract
“So we were competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Andrel beat all of them.”
Luckey: China has hundreds of times more shipbuilding capacity than US
“China's hundreds of times ahead of it. Hundreds of times more capacity than us.”
Luckey: Anduril beat Boeing, Lockheed, and Northrop for fighter contract
“We were competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Andrew beat all of them, which was really really gratifying to, you know, go from starting this company to going toe to toe with the guys who are legends of the fighter commun…”
Clark: Cursor reached hundreds of millions in run-rate revenue in 18 months
“I think when we invested, there were a couple tens of thousands of users and you know, low single digits, million air are fast forward to today. I don't think the company publicly publishes revenue, but call it on the Many, many hundreds of millions of run rat…”
Karp: Two-year US fentanyl deaths exceed all military combat deaths since WWII
“In the last two years, more people have died of fentanyl than every single person who's died as a soldier since World War II.”
Lowery: The US military is forced to buy foreign-made computers
“The microprocessors, the computers, you cannot buy an American made computer. You have to go overseas. You have to go to China and military doesn't want to buy A foreign made computer, but there isn't any option, so they have to do by exception”
Steinman: Chinese cyber actors are pre-positioned inside US critical infrastructure
“There are reports to Congress, open testimony by directors of national intelligence that the Chinese and the Russians and the Iranians and the North Koreans, but especially the Chinese, have been prolific in their efforts in the cyber domain to essentially pre…”
Shadbolt: Australia's chief scientist found PsiQuantum a 'country mile ahead'
“And then at the end of that, I don't know, 18 month process she concludes that we're a country mile ahead of anyone else.”
McCormick: Fuse recruited the former number two Iranian nuclear scientist
“The number of two, kind of, nuclear scientists in, in Iran who came over here to, kind of, work on, on our side here, and then just, like, everybody that I met who was, like, you know, working on the machines, like top to bottom, just like an unbelievably cool…”
Brex is the only next-gen card company owning its financial infrastructure
“The way that we differentiate against our competitors is the fact that we're the only next gen Category-defining company that owns our own financial infrastructure. Vertically integrated, so to speak. And what that means is getting super technical is that we d…”
Klein: New CS graduates face higher unemployment than art history majors
“And apparently, and this is such a bummer cause I'm a CS major, but new grad CS majors have a larger unemployment rate than art history majors.”
Many fast-growing AI startups currently operate with negative gross margins
“At least today, you know, there's certainly AI businesses that yes, they're growing really fast, but the margins are quite negative. And so therefore like you have to bet on them raising more venture money until they can like figure that out, whether that's fr…”
Josephs: Marjorie Taylor Greene bought major tech stocks surrounding tariff announcements
“She started buying the day after they paused it. The day before and the day after, on the eighth and ninth. She bought Apple, she bought Qualcomm, she bought Nvidia, AMD, ASML.”
El-Baba: StackBlitz's Bolt.new reached a $20M run rate in two months
“So for example, we just invested in a company called Bolt, or previously the parent organization called StackBlitz... They've gone zero to 20 million in run rate in two months. And we were lucky to lead their series, be there.”
Tunguz: In Q1 2024, Ethereum was world's most profitable software entity
“Ethereum in the first quarter of 24 produced on a percentage basis is the most profitable software company in the world. And on a aggregate dollars basis, six largest producer of cash, it's worth seven snowflakes put together. It's three hundred fifty billion …”
LLM scaling exhibits decreasing returns, requiring 10x compute for sublinear improvements
“If you look at it today, though, we are, the exponential in LLM performance is so far working against us that you need Order of magnitude increases in compute, 10 X increase in compute to have relatively sublinear increases in performance. So you're at decreas…”