The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 1,341 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 40 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Liang: SambaNova serves 1.5T parameter models on one rack versus 10-20
“And so with sum it over, that minimum quantum is down to one rack. Right, where if you have other, other service providers, you just run, say, a DeepSeq model, which is now one and a half trillion parameters, just to run that, the minimum for some of the other…”
Feldman: Cerebras AI inference is 20x faster than competitors
“And we're the fastest, not by a little bit, but by 20 x.”
Clements: 7x more CFOs are telling developers to increase AI token spending
“We did this survey of developers, and we asked them how many of them had a CFO who was telling them to spend less on Consumption versus more, and we actually found that seven times more companies are being told to, like, let it rip and spin more.”
Field: Figma engineers multiply productivity tenfold using specialized AI agent swarms
“We have plenty of people at Figma that are and are getting great results though.
And it's amazing how much we can do there when you have folks that really understand the infrastructure that they're trying to build.
And they go and you know, they're already 10 …”
Randle: Multiple AI inference platforms hold nine-figure startup contracts
“You know, you have you know, these inference platforms that have nine-figure contracts with startups. Like that, you know, there's very rare SaaS companies that have nine-figure contracts with anyone, much less a startup, and now you have a lot of these AI com…”
Armstrong: 80% of Crypto Trading Volume Moved Offshore
“Like most people don't know that 80% of the trading volume went offshore for crypto because of the lack of clarity in the US.”
Armstrong: Top AI-enabled engineers at Coinbase ship 100 pull requests weekly
“If the average developer is shipping maybe like eight pull requests a week, the top few engineers are doing like a hundred pull requests a week.”
Armstrong: Coinbase team pods shrunk from 10 people to 1 to 4
“Traditionally, in tech companies, you'd have, like, a team of a pod of 10, right? There'd be, like, one product manager, one designer, eight engineers, something like that, and we're now seeing these teams that are, like, two to four people. In some cases, we'…”
Armstrong: Coinbase operates equivalent of 1,200 full-time AI agents internally
“There's actually about 1200 full-time agents working at Coinbase now. Yeah, we, it's, we try to basically estimate it because, you know, you can spin up an agent for five minutes and shut it down, but if you look at it as, How much time AI agents are working c…”
Armstrong: Coinbase runs crypto's largest institutional business without close rivals
“We also run the largest institutional business in crypto. I actually don't think there's like a close competitor for that, at least not One that comes to mind.”
Slotowicz: High-end private jets are appreciating in value for the first time
“These airplanes, you know, airplanes are equipment, right? They don't go up in value normally, but we're seeing them go up in value for the first time almost ever, especially in the higher end of the market.”
Slotowicz: FBO event landing slots can cost $20,000 to $40,000
“I mean, of course there's Superbowl and there's like all those, and sometimes those can get ridiculous. They could be in the twenties or thirties or 40,000 dollars just for a short slot to drop off or pick up.”
Weinberg: Lawyers cannot distinguish synthetic legal docs from human-written ones
“But the thing that happened with like the last generation of coding models is you can actually take sets of documents and create synthetic docs that are so good that the lawyers can't tell the difference between whether they're created, you know, by an actual …”
Facebook's early secondary policy inadvertently caused employees to quit to sell stock
“Facebook got big, and it turned out that the company kind of couldn't buy all their shares that were, that people were selling, because the dollar amount just got so big, and the volume got so high, and they basically started telling people, like, if you sell …”
Singerman claims a 12-year 3x venture fund loses to Vanguard
“A venture fund, like, three X's over the course of, like, 10 to 12 years, I don't even think that that beats the S&P. I'm pretty sure it, like, loses to a Vanguard no-load index fund.”
Tandon: General Catalyst bought Summa Health as it faced impending bankruptcy
“And part of that means going to Akron, Ohio, buying a system that was on track to go bankrupt in, in the next couple of years and transforming it with AI.”
Rangwalla: Samsung and SK Hynix Generate More Cash Flow Than Hyperscalers
“Samsung and Hynix together generate more cash flow than every hyperscaler.”
Adcock: Figure robots run entirely on Helix vision-language-action model
“You can't write code to make this work. So all of our robots here run on a neural network we call Helix. It's a vision language action model we designed here internally to tell the robot what to go do, to stay balanced, like how to move its joints basically fr…”
Figure is not teleoperating its humanoid robots, says founder Brett Adcock
“We're not teleoperating this stuff.”
Adcock: Humanoid robots are working now in living rooms and commercial settings
“We just want humanoid robots to work, and like, they're working now. It's pretty simple. Like, we're seeing robots to do everyday things. Like, we saw it clean up a living room, do commercial work.”
Adcock: No humanoid robot has demonstrated 7-10 failure-free autonomous hours daily
“I want to be able to put a robot into a home and be able to do, like, seven to 10 hours of work successfully without failures, with, like, to know, like, with no human intervention and do that every day forever. It's just, like, a hard problem. Nobody's ever s…”
Harrison: $1M in Ukrainian Drones Destroyed a Third of Russia's Bomber Fleet
“So in Ukraine, there was this, I think it was called Operation Spiderweb, where, ah, Ukraine snuck basically like under false floorboards of a truck. They snuck a million dollars of worth of drones into Russian territory. And then the drones basically took fli…”
US would run out of munitions in 11 days in China conflict
“If we were to engage in a large scale conflict, I think it's something like 11 days. Like, we would run out of munitions in 11 days.”
Harrison: U.S. Has Consistently Lost Wargames Against China Since 2015
“We have been effectively losing war games when they model the scenario of US versus China since, I think like, 2015. We have been, the US loses those war games.”
Harrison: Rebuilding Fleet Lost in China Conflict Would Take 25 Years
“Half of our naval fleet could be destroyed within the first couple months of a large-scale conflict with China, and it would take us 25 years to rebuild just to get back to where we were. So our shipbuilding capacity doesn't exist.”
Harrison: Index Ventures bars weapons investments and militarizing portfolio drones
“Index, as far as I know, still to this day, has a clause where they can't invest in anything that is a weapon or could be used as a weapon, and I remember they had investments in, in companies like a drone company, where they uniquely could have contracted a p…”
Bry: Skydio has rapidly declining capital needs unlike AI peers
“We're in the very rare and hard earned position amongst robotics and AI companies of actually having rapidly declining capital needs.”
Bry: Skydio's biggest and fastest-growing business is civilian, not defense
“Our biggest, fastest growing businesses are in the civilian sector. They're not in defense.”
Bry: SF auto theft dropped 42% after launching Skydio drone program
“San Francisco, I think, has seen a 42% reduction in auto theft since they launched their drone program.”
Bry: Chinese government sanctioned Skydio and blocked component suppliers
“A year and a half ago, we had the great honor of being sanctioned by the Chinese government, and it was a pretty aggressive action. They announced the sanctions, and then they showed up at the suppliers that we still had in China, shut them down, stop them fro…”
Taneja: Anthropic restricted Mythos access to eliminate enterprise security debt
“They've had that model for a while. They did not release it. They thought a lot about it. And what did they do? They gave it to the companies to create an advantage to essentially eliminate you know, security debt in the existing infrastructure before more and…”
Abraham: Public has virtually zero churn and 25-year expected user lifetimes
“Because we're also building for portfolio builders, so people that actually just compound wealth over time, we essentially have no churn. Like, our lifetimes are like, 25 years plus. They literally, like, that, that line is just straight at some point, and jus…”
Del Buono: Most tech-focused RIAs have at most one or two professional investors
“So a lot of these firms do not have professional investors. So I often ask people as a quiz how many professional investors do you think are in, you know, RIA XYZ? And people will answer, I mean, percent, right? People answer me, 20%, 50%, 30%, but the number …”
Huffman: Reddit data has trained every major LLM, with or without permission
“Reddit's data has been used to train every large language model you've heard of, some with and others without our permission, which has, you know, been a situation to navigate but with our biggest partners, Google and OpenAI, you know, we do it on purpose, and…”
Immerman: OpenAI and Anthropic added revenue equal to half of public cloud
“If you look at OpenAI and Anthropic alone, the two, those two companies added as much revenue last year as half of the public cloud universe, excluding the mag seven.”
Immerman: a16z can almost guarantee viral launches for founders
“We can go to an early stage founder and almost guarantee That their launch is going to go viral.”
Laffont: No Coatue portfolio company plans to cut engineering staff due to AI
“What I can tell you is not a single one of the companies that we're kind of involved with is saying, wow, we're seeing so much more efficiency. We want to cut our engineering staff in half, right?”
Opendoor paid a consulting firm $5M to advise cutting quality across operations
“The single largest expense on our income statement was millions of dollars paid to a well-known consulting firm whose advice can be approximated as the following. We paid him five million dollars for this. This voice was basically the following tweet. Do every…”
Opendoor replaced an 11-person manual home offer workflow entirely with AI
“So between the time, like you put your address in and you Got an offer. There'd be 11 human beings who touched that. That's insane. That's just an insane outcome. Like, today, zero human beings are in that loop in many of our flows. Like, AI does all of that.”
Opendoor's earnings livestream peaked at a record 55,000 viewers
“Our earnings was the most watched earnings in history. The last National Open House we did broke records for how many people watched it. No. Yeah, by a lot, but not by a lot. We should fact check this, but I think at one point we had 55,000 live viewers.”
Nejatian mandated a one-week return-to-office despite Opendoor lacking physical office space
“I showed up on a Monday, my first Monday at work and I said, Hey everyone, by next Monday, we're back in offices. At that point, we didn't have offices. Like we didn't know where people were gonna go. So we had to like the team had to go sign leases, open up o…”
Blania: World has the world's largest crypto wallet by user count
“And so now we actually, we have the largest wallet in the world in terms of users.”
Das: Academic institutions can no longer afford to fund frontier AI research
“Research is not happening in academic institutions anymore. They just don't have the money to fund frontier research.”
Goldstein: Boeing sued Archer immediately after its public listing announcement
“So when you have an industry that's so heavily consolidated, they don't want new entrants. And so Boeing sued us instantly.”
Tenev: Harmonic's Aristotle AI autonomously solved an unsolved Erdős math problem
“And now with Aristotle people are doing like systematic, they're going through them. And there was one that Aristotle solved fully autonomously. And then a bunch of others where Aristotle assisted in solving or converting into formal math language.”
Luckey: Anduril beat Boeing, Northrop, and Lockheed for USAF contract
“So we were competing against Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin, and in the end, Andrel beat all of them.”