The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 43 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 43 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Taylor: Valar Atomics will turn on a new reactor every few minutes
“And we will get it down to minutes. This company will get, we'll get to the point where we have a new reactor turning on every few minutes.”
Taylor: Valar Atomics could be worth $500B in 10 years
“And, you know, we're sitting here right now, you know, less than three years from the founding of the company, and I think if you look back at 10 years in 10 years from now, and, you know, Valor's worth five hundred billion, something like that you will be abl…”
Taylor: Nuclear Fission Will Make Energy 1,000 Times Cheaper
“I know that nuclear fission will make energy a thousand times cheaper than it is today. Somebody will do that.”
Brown: Modern AI models can reason for weeks before plateauing
“What we're seeing today with the modern models is that 5.5 and other models can think for, if you scaffold them reasonably well, can think for weeks even before having performance plateau on some of these benchmarks.”
Knoop: ARC solution will likely need under 10k code lines, not massive LLMs
“It's quite likely actually that the solution it can be like written in like 10,000 lines of code or less. And it's not gonna require these like, you know, gigantic You know, two hundred billion large parameter models in order to solve it.”
Scott Wu: AI will lead to more software engineers, not fewer
“I think if anything, there's going to be more engineers, not less and I'll kind of give two reasons why. I think the first is there's just so much demand for engineering out there and so much demand, honestly, even in ways that we don't always think about, rig…”
Mensch: AI will not trigger the next pandemic; climate change will
“I don't think AI is going to be the one triggering the next pandemic. It's always going to be climate change.”
All Base Foundation Models Will Ultimately Open Source Their Pre-Training Phase
“So my take is that foundation models will all be open source for the deep learning phase.”
Hodak: Science aligns animal brain recordings with AI model representations
“We use that constructively at science like that. So we know that that is. That is true because we can get alignments between animal brain neural recordings and AI model internal representations.”
Tan: Chip manufacturing will reach 10A and 7A nodes despite escalating costs
“So I think I can see, you know, right now we have A and then now going to production of A, I can see 10 and seven. And so I think that path, I think we can get there, but couldn't it be more and more expensive and more difficult to do?”
Allaire: Global economy will depend on the US dollar for 30 to 50 years
“Our existing economic system, like, it does depend on really major reserve currencies like the dollar, and my view is, like, that's going to continue for a while maybe 30, 4050 years.”
Tiwari: Hyperscaler AI CapEx Will Scale to Trillions Over Next Several Years
“And over the next several years you know, that scales to trillions of dollars, right?”
Michael: Autonomous systems could consume 30% of defense budget within 10 years
“So, you know, in 10 years, it wouldn't surprise me if 20, 30% of the budget is, is, is spent on those kinds of systems.”
Guo: Someone Will Make Hundreds of Millions Trading Markets With LLMs
“From a prediction standpoint, personally, I think we're going to see somebody make a lot of money, hundreds of millions of dollars, trading markets with LLMs next year. It's inevitable.”
Voice conversational AI will pass the Turing test within a year
“I think this is, is good for customer support or customer experience, but it's still a way away from like conversation like we have and like passing that Turing test. So I think this is still like a, at least a year, like within a year. And then you will have …”
Liemandt expects hundreds of Texas sports academy schools next year
“We expect we will have hundreds of schools in Texas, this Texas sports academy next year, a billion dollars of vouchers are coming.”
Helberg: US CapEx is over 2% of GDP and will probably double next year
“Massive CapEx investment, as you guys know that has really picked up in a statistically significant way. It's over two percent of GDP right now, and it's probably gonna double by next year.”
Patel: OpenAI o1 and o3 share basic architecture with GPT-4o
“For a long time, OpenAI was charging more per token for the reasoning model, right, O-one and O-three than they were for GPT-Four-O, even though the architecture is, like, basically the same. It's just the weights are different.”
Prince: Smartphones will soon run local models matching current ChatGPT
“It is not particularly long before you're running something which is the equivalent of kind of the current generation of ChatGPT on your iPhone or your, or at your Android device.”
Younis: FSD-like systems will become standard vehicle features within five years
“So I think general availability on a FSD like system over the next five years is going to be common, just like navigation systems.”
Younis: Self-driving software will become virtually free by 2030–2035
“I think at 2030, 2035, you're going to have deep downward pricing pressure, like to where it's like the expectation is going to be close to free.”
Goldman: All surface minerals discoverable by eye have already been found
“Anything you can find by traipsing across the ground with your eyes has been found by now, and we need more intelligent ways of looking for minerals in places that are concealed.”
Rao: Doctors and Nurses Will Not Be Fully Automated in 10 Years
“And the thesis for us in healthcare delivery is that we don't think doctors or nurses are going to get fully automated over the next 10 years.”
Huang: AI compute will follow hyper Moore's Law over the next decade
“Over the next 10 years our hope is that we could double or triple performance every year at scale. Not at chip. At scale. And to be able to, therefore, drive the cost down by a factor of two or three, drive the energy down by a factor of two, three every singl…”
Karpathy: Tesla Autonomous Stack Will Be Pure End-to-End Neural Net in 10 Years
“And I do suspect that The end-to-end systems for Tesla in, like, say, 10 years, it is just a neural net. I mean, the videos stream into a neural net and commands come out.”
Khan: Almost all teachers will use generative AI within five years
“I think it will be safe to say that in five years, almost all teachers will be using generative AI for lesson planning, grading, Progress reports, rubric creation.”
Schimpf: US will not adopt autonomous robots making lethal strike decisions
“The U S is not going to adopt systems that have autonomous robots going out and making sort of lethal decisions about, you know, what to attack or not. That's not really how the U S works. We assign accountability to the person that employed a weapon system. T…”
Armstrong: New Limit will launch its first Phase 1 clinical trial next year
“And then the first phase one clinical trial will be launching next year.”
Gil: Startup valuations will rise and financing will ease over two years
“And so I do think we're going to see a ongoing rise in valuations most likely over the next year or two, much more than we've seen today. And obviously there'll be some great things in there and there'll be a bunch of stuff that doesn't deserve it, but I actua…”
Feldman: Cerebras will sell tens of thousands of third-generation systems
“It was like, you know, the first gen we might have sold a dozen. The second gen we probably sold 300, and now we're still going to sell tens of thousands in the third gen.”
Tiwari: Physical AI will require debt and project finance to scale
“And so I think the natural kind of extension of what we see is kind of what happened in the compute markets where you really needed flexible capital, where it wasn't just equity, it was debt and, you know, a variety of project finance to really scale capex. Yo…”
Goldman: Mingomba is the highest-grade undeveloped large copper deposit globally
“It is the highest highest grade large copper deposit that is not yet a mine. The average of operating copper mines today is that the concentration of copper in the ore is, is about 0.6%. So if you mine a thousand kilograms of ore, not including the non-ore roc…”
Training OpenAI base models on code improved chain-of-thought reasoning
“So they had wanted to see what introducing code into their into their base models would do. I think it had positive effects on chain of thought reasoning.”
Armstrong: Stablecoin payments settle under one second for under one cent
“You can send money at the speed of information, right? It's kind of like under one second, under one cent us to move money anywhere in the world.”
Hodak: Science's in-house retinal gene therapy probably enters human trials next year
“What we ended up doing is we developed indigenously a state of the art gene therapy, which is probably going to humans next year.”
Guo: Physical AI products will secure contracts enabling debt financing
“I think the products will support investment grade buyers who are going to have contracts that say, like, we want it, and you can raise debt against it.”
Dohmke: Developers will maintain legacy PHP and COBOL for a decade
“And so we are still I think for like a decade or so at least going to have software developers that work in, in lots of old school, you know, PHP code and COBOL code and all that stuff.”
Hendrycks: Nations Will Race on AI Drones Without Coordinating Restraints
“No, like, super weapon type stuff, but more conventional type of warfare, like drones and things like that, I expect that they'll continue to race and Probably not, maybe not even coordinate on anything like that, but that's just how things would go.”
Clerico: Firefighting drones will perform rapid wildfire attacks within a decade
“So in my opinion, I think over the next five to 10 years, we will see exactly what you're talking about drones to do rapid initial attack. So you see you know, you get an ignition that's detected from a camera or satellite. And drones are pre-positioned can ge…”
Huang: Tiny language models will achieve superhuman performance in narrow domains
“And we're going to see superhuman tasks in one little tiny domain from a little tiny, tiny, tiny model.”
Papermaster: AI compute supply constraints will disappear as AMD ramps production
“Well, that's definitely happening. I mean, the supply constraint will go away. We'll be a part of that. We're ramping up and shipping as we speak on our instant line, and it's going quite well.”
Albrecht: Users will create bespoke agents via natural language within five years
“And I think five years from now we're going to have something where it's not just you know, okay we have a scheduling bot we have this other thing but we really have these more general more robust systems where Each of us can individually say, like, I want a t…”
Khan: Bill Gates challenged OpenAI to build an AI passing AP Biology
“It turns out that Bill Gates, when he saw GPT-III, he's like, oh, this is cool. But we all know GPT-III really didn't have a good handle on knowledge, and he told the OpenAI team, he's like, I'll be impressed if this could pass the AP Biology exam. He literall…”