| 20% | “20%” | Scott Wu: AI will enable software engineers to do 5x more | Scott Wu | May 2, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Scott Wu: AI will enable software engineers to do 5x more | Scott Wu | May 2, 2024 | — |
| 5× | “five x” | Scott Wu: AI will enable software engineers to do 5x more | Scott Wu | May 2, 2024 | — |
| 2× | “two X” | Doshi: Curated data in fine-tuning matters more than vision algorithmic tricks | Suhail Doshi | Apr 18, 2024 | — |
| 1B | “a billion” | Doshi: Video AI models are pre-trained on a billion images first | Suhail Doshi | Apr 18, 2024 | — |
| $26B | “twenty six billion dollars” | Doshi avoided music startups because the entire industry is only $26B | Suhail Doshi | Apr 18, 2024 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Guo: Microsoft's Inflection Deal Is a Strategic Hedge Against OpenAI Reliance | Sarah Guo | Apr 11, 2024 | — |
| 10M | “ten million” | Gil: Multiple competing AI startups are reaching $10M revenue in one year | Elad Gil | Mar 21, 2024 | — |
| 100× | “hundred X” | Guo: AI agents cannot automate early-stage VC due to missing data | Sarah Guo | Mar 21, 2024 | — |
| 1B | “a billion” | Gil: Microsoft's blocked Intuit buyout preceded Intuit reaching $178B market cap | Elad Gil | Mar 14, 2024 | Supported |
| $1.5B | “a half billion dollars” | Gil: Microsoft's blocked Intuit buyout preceded Intuit reaching $178B market cap | Elad Gil | Mar 14, 2024 | Supported |
| 78B | “seventy eight billion” | Gil: Microsoft's blocked Intuit buyout preceded Intuit reaching $178B market cap | Elad Gil | Mar 14, 2024 | Supported |
| 97B | “ninety seven billion” | Guo: Meta Added $197B in Largest Single-Session Gain Pre-NVIDIA | Sarah Guo | Mar 7, 2024 | Supported |
| 2.3M | “2.3 million” | Gil: Klarna's AI assistant performed the equivalent work of 700 human agents | Elad Gil | Mar 7, 2024 | Supported |
| 25% | “25%” | Gil: Klarna's AI assistant performed the equivalent work of 700 human agents | Elad Gil | Mar 7, 2024 | Supported |
| $500B | “half trillion dollars” | Gil: Converting 10% of human services payroll to AI matches US software | Elad Gil | Mar 7, 2024 | — |
| 5T | “five trillion” | Gil: Converting 10% of human services payroll to AI matches US software | Elad Gil | Mar 7, 2024 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Gil: Converting 10% of human services payroll to AI matches US software | Elad Gil | Mar 7, 2024 | — |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Guo: NVIDIA's competitive moat is really deep despite intense economic pressure | Sarah Guo | Mar 7, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Liberty: RAG Over Internet Data Reduces LLM Hallucinations by 50% | Edo Liberty | Feb 22, 2024 | Partly supported |
| 99% | “99%” | Liberty: High 90s Percentage of OSS Code Comes From Vendor Employees | Edo Liberty | Feb 22, 2024 | Partly supported |
| 3% | “three percent” | Zhao: AI applications must stay largely familiar to overcome user inertia | Ivan Zhao | Feb 15, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Gil: Bundlers Like Rippling Win Without Covering Every Feature Edge Case | Elad Gil | Feb 15, 2024 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Gil: Bundlers Like Rippling Win Without Covering Every Feature Edge Case | Elad Gil | Feb 15, 2024 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Zhao: 80% of Notion designers know how to code | Ivan Zhao | Feb 15, 2024 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Sands: Stripe ML Recovers Billions Globally in False Declines | Emily Glassberg Sands | Feb 8, 2024 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Sands: Stripe Smart Dunning Reduces Recurring Charge Declines by 30% | Emily Glassberg Sands | Feb 8, 2024 | — |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Sands: Stripe Radar Evaluates 1,000 Characteristics in Under 100 Milliseconds | Emily Glassberg Sands | Feb 8, 2024 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Coates: Shopify accounts for roughly 10% of all US e-commerce | Glen Coates | Jan 31, 2024 | Supported |
| 75% | “75%” | Coates: AI agents reach 75% in 10 minutes, but 95% is brutal | Glen Coates | Jan 31, 2024 | — |
| 95% | “95%” | Coates: AI agents reach 75% in 10 minutes, but 95% is brutal | Glen Coates | Jan 31, 2024 | — |
| 5% | “five percent” | Gil: Solving the final 5% of AI reliability will take five years | Elad Gil | Jan 31, 2024 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Chen: Covariant's average warehouse customer has over 100% annual turnover | Peter Chen | Jan 24, 2024 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Beyang Liu: Keyword Search Solves Over 90% of RAG Retrieval | Beyang Liu | Jan 18, 2024 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Liu: Coding agent chains suffer compounding failure from sub-90% step fidelity | Beyang Liu | Jan 18, 2024 | — |
| 7B | “seven billion” | Liu: Sourcegraph Cody uses StarCoder 7B, matching larger models with context | Beyang Liu | Jan 18, 2024 | — |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Shazeer: Text Is a Thousand Times More Information-Dense Than Images | Noam Shazeer | Jan 11, 2024 | — |
| 1M | “a million” | Shazeer: Text Is a Thousand Times More Information-Dense Than Images | Noam Shazeer | Jan 11, 2024 | — |
| 5B | “five billion” | Hoffman: AI creates path to medical assistants and tutors on 5B smartphones | Reid Hoffman | Dec 21, 2023 | — |
| 1B | “a billion” | Hoffman: AI creates path to medical assistants and tutors on 5B smartphones | Reid Hoffman | Dec 21, 2023 | — |
| 8B | “eight billion” | Reid Hoffman: Calls for a Global Six-Month AI Pause Cannot Work | Reid Hoffman | Dec 21, 2023 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Gil: 90% of computing experimentation collapses back to scaling original architecture | Elad Gil | Dec 14, 2023 | — |
| 86B | “eighty six billion” | Guo: OpenAI Staff Revolted to Protect $86B Tender Offer Value | Sarah Guo | Nov 30, 2023 | — |
| 5T | “five trillion” | Elad Gil: AI converts low-margin services spend into high-margin software revenue | Elad Gil | Nov 30, 2023 | — |
| 2T | “two trillion” | Elad Gil: AI converts low-margin services spend into high-margin software revenue | Elad Gil | Nov 30, 2023 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Elad Gil: AI converts low-margin services spend into high-margin software revenue | Elad Gil | Nov 30, 2023 | — |
| 30% | “30%” | Elad Gil: AI converts low-margin services spend into high-margin software revenue | Elad Gil | Nov 30, 2023 | — |
| 4× | “four times” | Mensch: Chinchilla scaling yields models four times cheaper to serve | Arthur Mensch | Nov 9, 2023 | Supported |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Sutskever: Early neural networks failed primarily because they were too small | Ilya Sutskever | Nov 2, 2023 | — |
| 90% | “90%” | Noon: Generative AI solves the cybersecurity skills shortage for pennies | Ryan Noon | Oct 26, 2023 | — |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Noon: AI allows a single hacker to execute mass social engineering attacks | Ryan Noon | Oct 26, 2023 | — |
| 300M | “a two hundred million” | Noon: Top VCs avoid cybersecurity because typical outcomes cap at $200M | Ryan Noon | Oct 26, 2023 | — |
| 60% | “60%” | Gandhi: Enterprise AI is 60% model work and 40% legacy integration | Kawal Gandhi | Oct 19, 2023 | — |
| 40% | “40%” | Gandhi: Enterprise AI is 60% model work and 40% legacy integration | Kawal Gandhi | Oct 19, 2023 | — |
| 20M | “twenty million” | Halligan: Groove Networks reached $20M revenue before Microsoft acquisition | Brian Halligan | Oct 12, 2023 | Supported |
| 200M | “two hundred million” | Halligan: HubSpot pitched a $1M sales business alongside $200M marketing at IPO | Brian Halligan | Oct 12, 2023 | Supported |
| 1M | “one million” | Halligan: HubSpot pitched a $1M sales business alongside $200M marketing at IPO | Brian Halligan | Oct 12, 2023 | Supported |
| 2B | “two billion” | Halligan: Stepped down as HubSpot CEO because $2B-to-$20B wasn't his forte | Brian Halligan | Oct 12, 2023 | — |
| 20B | “twenty billion” | Halligan: Stepped down as HubSpot CEO because $2B-to-$20B wasn't his forte | Brian Halligan | Oct 12, 2023 | — |
| 120M | “a hundred twenty million” | Halligan: Propeller Ventures Raised $120M and Backed About 10 Ocean Startups | Brian Halligan | Oct 12, 2023 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Gil: Existing models yield 10x to 100x gains without base model scaling | Elad Gil | Oct 5, 2023 | — |
| 100× | “hundred X” | Gil: Existing models yield 10x to 100x gains without base model scaling | Elad Gil | Oct 5, 2023 | — |
| $1B | “a billion dollars” | Gil: IBM sponsored Linux with up to $1B annually in late 1990s | Elad Gil | Oct 5, 2023 | Supported |
| 4× | “four times” | Gil: SARS leaked from laboratories four times in first two years | Elad Gil | Sep 28, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 9.1% | “9.1%” | Kelly: Ginkgo gives 10x super-voting shares to all active employees | Jason Kelly | Sep 28, 2023 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Kelly: Ginkgo gives 10x super-voting shares to all active employees | Jason Kelly | Sep 28, 2023 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Masad: Replit users see 30% to 50% productivity boost on coding | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 1.3M | “a quarter million” | Masad: A non-coder built a $250k ARR startup in months using Replit | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 2× | “two X” | Masad: Professional programmers will see 2x to 10x productivity gains from AI | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 5× | “five X” | Masad: Professional programmers will see 2x to 10x productivity gains from AI | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 10× | “10 X” | Masad: Professional programmers will see 2x to 10x productivity gains from AI | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Masad: Programmers will act like managers of AI within 3-5 years | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Masad: Replit data delivered a 50% improvement over open-source model | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 3B | “three billion” | Masad: Training models has become a founder status symbol over product needs | Amjad Masad | Sep 21, 2023 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Feldman: Cerebras can run a trillion-parameter model on a single system | Andrew Feldman | Sep 7, 2023 | Supported |
| $60M | “sixty million dollars” | Building a first chip takes two years and $50 million, says Feldman | Andrew Feldman | Sep 7, 2023 | — |
| $30M | “thirty million dollars” | Hardware bugs cost $20 million to fix, requiring huge QA ratios | Andrew Feldman | Sep 7, 2023 | — |
| 75% | “75%” | Feldman: Cerebras is About 75% Software | Andrew Feldman | Sep 7, 2023 | — |
| $1.5M | “Half a million dollars” | Running inference on an eight-GPU H100 system costs half a million dollars | Andrew Feldman | Sep 7, 2023 | Supported |
| 6B | “six billion” | Feldman: Commercial AI will settle on 3B to 13B parameter models | Andrew Feldman | Sep 7, 2023 | — |
| 1M | “a million” | Rauch: Jenni.ai grew from $1M to $1.5M ARR in two months | Guillermo Rauch | Aug 30, 2023 | Supported |
| 1.5M | “1.5 million” | Rauch: Jenni.ai grew from $1M to $1.5M ARR in two months | Guillermo Rauch | Aug 30, 2023 | Supported |
| 8B | “eight billion” | Uszkoreit: Global RNA manufacturing will reach 6-8B doses within two years | Jakob Uszkoreit | Aug 24, 2023 | Held up |
| 3× | “three times” | Khan: Failing to teach automatic arithmetic fluency is educational malpractice | Sal Khan | Aug 17, 2023 | — |
| 2M | “two million” | Khan Academy Kids reaches nearly two million children primarily in the US | Sal Khan | Aug 17, 2023 | Supported |
| 3% | “three percent” | Khan: Khan World School students are learning three to four times faster | Sal Khan | Aug 17, 2023 | Supported |
| 30% | “30%” | Khan: Khan World School students are learning three to four times faster | Sal Khan | Aug 17, 2023 | Supported |
| 4× | “four times” | Khan: Khan World School students are learning three to four times faster | Sal Khan | Aug 17, 2023 | Supported |
| 3× | “three times” | Khan: Internalized knowledge and mathematical fluency matter more in the AI era | Sal Khan | Aug 17, 2023 | — |
| 100M | “a hundred million” | Gil: Cerebras signed a $100 million supercomputer deal with the UAE | Elad Gil | Aug 10, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 95% | “95%” | Biewald: 95% Of ML Developers Are Using OpenAI's GPT Models | Lukas Biewald | Aug 3, 2023 | — |
| 5× | “five times” | Parikh: SOTA text-to-audio AI currently works reasonably well one in five times | Devi Parikh | Jul 20, 2023 | — |
| $3M | “three million dollars” | Slootman: Data Domain generated $3M in revenue during his first year | Frank Slootman | Jun 29, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 1B | “a billion” | Simo: Instacart processes one billion AI-powered search queries per quarter | Fidji Simo | Jun 22, 2023 | — |
| 1B | “a billion” | Simo: Instacart has suggested one billion AI-powered item replacements | Fidji Simo | Jun 22, 2023 | — |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Simo: Instacart aggregates over 80,000 stores across 1,000+ retailers | Fidji Simo | Jun 22, 2023 | Supported |
| 1M | “a million” | Guo: Expanding context windows to 1M tokens will not naively solve LLM context challenges | Sarah Guo | Jun 8, 2023 | — |
| $1M | “a million dollars” | Schimpf: Low-cost drones give adversaries cruise missile equivalents under $100K | Brian Schimpf | Jun 1, 2023 | Supported |
| $1B | “a billion dollars” | Schimpf: Anduril landed a $1 billion counter-drone contract with SOCOM | Brian Schimpf | Jun 1, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 5× | “five times” | Schimpf: Hypersonic startups operate at 5x pace and fraction of Lockheed's cost | Brian Schimpf | Jun 1, 2023 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Schimpf: Ukraine would 100% strike deep into Russia if given tools | Brian Schimpf | Jun 1, 2023 | — |
| 95% | “95%” | Koller: 95% of all drug discovery programs fail | Daphne Koller | May 19, 2023 | Supported |
| 40% | “40%” | Delangue: Hugging Face dedicates 30% to 40% of effort to exploration | Clem Delangue | May 19, 2023 | — |
| 1M | “a million” | Delangue: Hugging Face crossed 250,000 models from nearly 15,000 companies | Clem Delangue | May 19, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 1K | “a thousand” | BigScience is the largest ML collaboration to date, says Delangue | Clem Delangue | May 19, 2023 | Supported |
| 10% | “10%” | Singhal: Roughly 10% of all internet searches seek health information | Karan Singhal | May 18, 2023 | Supported |
| 20% | “20%” | Gil: Healthcare is 20% of GDP; pharmaceuticals are 20% of that | Elad Gil | May 18, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 16% | “16%” | Gil: Healthcare is 20% of GDP; pharmaceuticals are 20% of that | Elad Gil | May 18, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 10B | “ten billion” | Frontier AI training compute grew nine orders of magnitude in nine years | Mustafa Suleyman | May 11, 2023 | Supported |
| 1.5M | “a half million” | Cliffton: 5.5 million kids die annually lacking access to basic medicine | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 15% | “15%” | The robotic vehicle itself is only 15% of autonomous delivery complexity | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | — |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Autonomous flight is 1,000 times easier than autonomous road driving | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | — |
| 100× | “hundred times” | Zipline operates at 100 times the scale of its closest competitor | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | — |
| 62M | “a sixty one million” | Zipline signed a $61 million nationwide medical delivery contract with Rwanda | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | Supported |
| 400% | “400%” | Zipline is projected to increase its flight volume by 400% in 2023 | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | Didn’t hold up |
| 2× | “two times” | Zipline is projected to increase its flight volume by 400% in 2023 | Keller Rinaudo Cliffton | May 10, 2023 | Didn’t hold up |
| 8M | “a seven million” | Stability AI Secured a Seven Million Hour Grant on Summit Supercomputer | Emad Mostaque | May 3, 2023 | — |
| 4M | “four million” | Stability AI Is Deploying Four Million Tablets to Children Across Malawi | Emad Mostaque | May 3, 2023 | — |
| 100× | “hundred times” | Generative Image Models Will Soon Achieve 25 Frames Per Second | Emad Mostaque | May 3, 2023 | Held up |
| 80% | “80%” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 1% | “one percent” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Valenzuela: Creative AI succeeds early because creative workflows tolerate 80% accuracy | Cristobal Valenzuela | May 1, 2023 | — |
| 5× | “five X” | Guo: Retraining the same size model is 5x cheaper on the second run | Sarah Guo | Apr 27, 2023 | — |
| $50B | “fifty billion dollars” | Gil: No major drug-developing biotech founded since late 1980s hit $30B-$50B | Elad Gil | Apr 27, 2023 | Contradicted |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Shazeer Estimates Text Is 1,000 Times More Information-Dense Than Images | Noam Shazeer | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 1M | “a million” | Shazeer Estimates Text Is 1,000 Times More Information-Dense Than Images | Noam Shazeer | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 20% | “20%” | Daniel de Freitas Built Google's Meena as a Scrappy 20% Project | Noam Shazeer | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| $1B | “a billion dollars” | Zaharia: Databricks reached 6,000 employees and crossed $1B in ARR | Matei Zaharia | Apr 25, 2023 | Supported |
| 1K | “a thousand” | Zaharia: Nearly 1,000 Databricks customers used LLMs before ChatGPT | Matei Zaharia | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 6B | “six billion” | Zaharia: 6B parameter models can achieve instruction following with 50x less data | Matei Zaharia | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 50× | “50 times” | Zaharia: 6B parameter models can achieve instruction following with 50x less data | Matei Zaharia | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 1T | “a trillion” | Zaharia: Trillion-parameter models are computationally inefficient for knowledge retrieval | Matei Zaharia | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 99% | “99%” | Graveley: Traditional UIs enforce structured flows, whereas text interfaces invite erratic goal changes | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 10% | “10%” | Graveley: GitHub Copilot's in-the-wild test pass rate rose from under 10% to over 60% | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 60% | “60%” | Graveley: GitHub Copilot's in-the-wild test pass rate rose from under 10% to over 60% | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 1% | “one percent” | Graveley: Every 10ms of latency drops Copilot completions by 1% | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 50% | “50%” | Graveley: GitHub Copilot weekly cohort retention stayed above 50% | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Graveley: Copilot writes 80% of code for top power users | Alex Graveley | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 80% | “80%” | Srinivas: Subscription search fails if incumbents offer an 80%-good free tier | Aravind Srinivas | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 600M | “a five hundred million” | A $500 million AI model will likely be trained by 2025 | Noam Brown | Apr 25, 2023 | Didn’t hold up |
| 10× | “10 X” | A $500 million AI model will likely be trained by 2025 | Noam Brown | Apr 25, 2023 | Didn’t hold up |
| 200× | “200 times” | Liang: Google beat Stanford's medical AI with a model 200x larger | Dr. Percy Liang | Apr 25, 2023 | Supported |
| 7% | “seven percent” | Ramaswamy: Google Featured Snippets Never Passed 7 Percent Coverage | Sridhar Ramaswamy | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 5B | “a four billion” | Ramaswamy: Neeva Built In-House Summarization Over OpenAI for Scale | Sridhar Ramaswamy | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 100% | “hundred percent” | Ramaswamy: Google Gave Over 100 Percent Rev Share to Early Partners | Sridhar Ramaswamy | Apr 25, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 99% | “99%” | Huang: For 25 years, the consensus favoring general-purpose computing was right | Jensen Huang | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 1% | “one percent” | Huang: For 25 years, the consensus favoring general-purpose computing was right | Jensen Huang | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| $2B | “two billion dollars” | Huang: NVIDIA missed a revenue quarter by $2B during crypto cycle | Jensen Huang | Apr 25, 2023 | Partly supported |
| 1B | “a billion” | Huang: AI might reduce climate computation requirements 10B-fold | Jensen Huang | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
| 10B | “ten billion” | Huang: AI might reduce climate computation requirements 10B-fold | Jensen Huang | Apr 25, 2023 | — |
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