why aren't all 230 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shim: Read.ai hits 80% 30-day retention for active meeting users
“Most recently in this last month, if you use our product in a meeting, and you get the reports we see that the retention is 80% after 30 days”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dolezal: Solo founder built $10M ARR vibe-coding business in past year
“I have literally next to me, I, like, I have two friends who built businesses over last year.
One of them is now ten million ARR.
Ten million.
One person.
Vibe coding app, and the second one is, is, is doing three million, you know, and just like, time is now,…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Consulting.com spends $30,000 per day on Facebook advertising
“Some time, most of the time, 30 grand a day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Traffic from Tai Lopez generated $4M to $6M in revenue
“Thai alone I don't want to give specific numbers just because it's private for him, but it's in between In between four and six million just from Ty's traffic.”
Assertion Supported
Harbinger: Obtaining North Korean visas for Americans is easy and completely legal
“It's easy for me to get an American, a visa to North Korea. It's a snap. It's a snap, and it's completely legal.”
Assertion Partly supported
Huffman: Reddit is crushing Digg and is nearly twice its size
“Well, Reddit is crushing Dig now. I think they're almost twice as large as Dig... In traffic... And uniques per month and page views per month. Or is my understanding, you know, I haven't, I don't have direct access to Reddit numbers anymore, but from what the…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huffman: A 10% speed increase boosted Reddit page views by 10%
“If we made the site go faster by 10%, page use would go up by 10%.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chesky: Paul Graham doubted Airbnb's idea but praised founders' resourcefulness
“It, the long story short is we ended up getting in Y Combinator, and I remember on the interview, he brought the cereal, and, you know, Paul Graham said, I remember him saying, like, he wasn't entirely sure of the idea. He said, well, it sounds different, but …”
Assertion Supported
Ries: Anthropic Founders Left OpenAI Over AI Safety Dispute
“I met the Anthropik team when they first left OpenAI, and they, you know, they left over a dispute With OpenAI over you know, exactly how to pursue the question of AI safety.”
Assertion Supported
Ries: FTX Implosion Auctioned Anthropic Shares to Unaligned Investors
“Huge chunks of Anthropic stock were sold at auction to any investor who wanted them, including people who are super, super unaligned.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cheney: Franklin Covey reached out after discovering his firm via ChatGPT
“I had Franklin Covey reach out to me the other day, and they said, hey we'd love to work with you. We need, you know, we need some help on this stuff. I was like, awesome. How'd you find us? And they said, ChatGPT.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Cheney's eight-year-old son built a Roblox clone using Replit in one day
“My eight-year-old made his own version of Roblox and built 20 games inside of it, and he did that in a day with Replit.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2029
Shane Mac: Convos agents can clone apps simply from a pasted link
“Just paste the link and tell your agent to copy it. It's done.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Geek Squad founder Robert Stephens uses AI to clone apps from screenshots
“So I was talking to Robert Stevens actually, and he was like, I don't even download apps anymore. I just screenshot the app in the app store and throw it in a thing and go code the app. And then it just builds a personalized version of the app that I want.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zapier CEO Wade Foster personally reviews every company job offer
“I review every single job offer that goes out inside of Zapier still.”
Assertion Contradicted
David: Posties is the first fully open-source social media scheduler
“Posty is the first social media scheduling tool that actually, like, fully open source”
Assertion Supported
Gil: Patrick Collison's Arc Institute is first major biology institute in decades
“Like Patrick from Stripe started ARC, a biology institute, like one of the first new major biology institutions in decades that's doing really interesting things, right?”
Assertion Contradicted
Gil: Minecraft was the first billion-dollar single-person company
“People always say, oh, when's the first billion dollar single person company? That was Minecraft.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gil: Brinko condensed months-long government permit reviews to one hour
“And we basically took a few months of manual review, and we condensed it into, like, an hour, and then it still goes for a manual review, but we've repackaged everything, we point out the risks, I should say, by we, I mean the company, right?”
Assertion Supported
Mohrer: Uber lowered prices every six months as a competitive moat
“Uber was very big about, like, time to cut prices. Like, we were, every six months, we were lowering the price, because that's a moat, you know, makes people, you don't want to get undercut”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wave AI has failed to make Meta ads work for a year
“And I haven't been able to get meta ads to work in more than a year. Every few months I dip back in, I spend a bunch and it fails.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wave AI converts 10 percent of installs and gets 800 daily downloads
“Like if someone installs, there's like a one in 10 that they're going to give me money. And that's like, I'm told is pretty high for this sort of thing. And so, like, so I need more installs, you know, and so I'll do between 800 and a thousand installs a day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wave AI grew from $1M to $6M ARR in four months
“There was a time where we did, it was a couple of years ago, where meta ads worked super well, and I grew from like a million ARR to like six in like four months, like it was crazy, because it was a first of its kind thing, and it just crushed it on meta.”
Assertion Supported
Walls: Claude Code fixes errors without requiring developers to use Google
“What's amazing about cloud code is it can see the error and then fix the error and you never have to Google it at all.”
Assertion Partly supported
Thummala: MIT report found 95% of AI pilots failed to reach production
“And that's actually why, you know, if you see, like, the MIT report, 95% of things didn't, 95% of, like, AI pilots never made it to production.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matze: Custom AI Voice Agent Booked a Listing Appointment on Day One
“And when I did that, I actually got my first listing appointment went to the first day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matze: Rezora achieved over 80% sales conversion rate on demo calls
“And shockingly enough, we had above 80% conversion rate.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Matze: No Off-The-Shelf LLM Is Designed For Sales Conversations
“The main thing is there's no LLM, there's no chat GPT, there's no cloud that is specifically meant to respond for sales or human-like conversations.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Apfelbaum: Presold 100 copies of '99 Hacks' course for $10K before building it
“And then a 145 people voted, and so I created a Stripe link for 99 dollars, and I send it to a hundred people. I didn't even have anything created yet, and then a hundred people paid for it. So I had 10,000 dollars in cash sitting in an account”
Assertion Contradicted
Santos: Women make roughly 70% of Gillette razor purchases
“There's a few products that are like this, like the one I usually tell is like, is Gillette where, you know, usually the woman in the relationship is the one that buys the Gillette. It's like, I think about 70% of the purchases of Gillette are by women. Don't,…”
Assertion Supported
Warner: Zapier's founder automates employee meeting feedback based on management books
“Wade, the founder, likes the, what is it, the five dysfunctions of an organization, of a team. I forget the name of the book. Anyway, he likes it so much that that, at the end of each internal meeting, Everyone's individual contribution to the meeting gets ana…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Foster: Zapier has approximately 350,000 customers
“We're like, 350,000 customers or so.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Foster: Zapier's peak monthly cash burn was only about $20,000
“The most money we lost in a month was about 20,000 dollars”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hastings: Books inherited by Quanta from other providers contain widespread miscategorizations
“So when with Quanta inherit books from other providers, we see all of these things miscategorized, and it's actually very simple for us to get that understanding based on what we see as the memos and what we see as the receipt content and invoice content.”
Assertion Supported
Hastings: QuickBooks Does Not Match Payroll Records with Bank Movements
“From my payroll system, I see that a payroll ran, and then in my bank, I see that the money moved to run that payroll. We match those things together and make sure that they're consistent, and QuickBooks does not do that, but we built that from the ground up i…”
Assertion Supported
Hastings: QuickBooks is still not fully cloud-based
“QuickBooks is still not even fully cloud, which is very funny.
I think, so a lot of people still use QuickBooks desktop.”
Assertion Supported
Singla: Mercer reached $300M valuation using freelancers to train AI
“If you just recently saw Mercer, which went crazily to, I don't know, two 50, there is two fifty, three hundred million, like two fifty, three hundred million, where they're getting freelancers to Train on AI data sets.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Singla: Changing headings to questions causes massive traffic upticks
“We've worked with customers where they've seen massive traffic uptick just on converting the H ones and H twos into interrogative questions.”
Assertion Partly supported
Singla: LLMs now index on-screen text in Instagram and TikTok videos
“So if you see most of Instagram and TikTok they've just become indexable on search, Instagram specifically. So which means LLMs can now actually go through your video and see all the text you have on your video and then prop that video up specifically. So it's…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Smith: Most Webflow LLM signups came from existing SEO work
“So I would say most of the signups from LMS were from SEO work that we had already done or we're doing.”
Assertion Supported
Ethan Smith: LLMs frequently cite YouTube, TikTok, and LinkedIn, but rarely X
“It generally, so LMs, the classes of domain types of domains that are cited frequently, video and UGC are huge.
Instagram, TikTok, LinkedIn, I am not seeing X that much.
And then video and YouTube shows up a lot.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ethan Smith: LLM video citations require only hundreds of views, not millions
“What I will say is that for many questions, the number of views is not millions or hundreds of thousands, it's hundreds or a few thousands.
So it's still pretty, it's still something that you could win without being an influencer.”
Assertion Supported
Smith: Search volume is 5x to 10x larger than LLMs
“I think it's five X, at least five X LMs, maybe 10 X, depending on the category. So it's way bigger than AEO.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: No Audience Members at HubSpot Talk Saw AI Increase Revenue
“When I asked how many of them are using AI or chat GPT, almost everyone raised their hands. When I asked how many of you guys are seeing an increase in revenue, literally no one raised their hand.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: AI summaries pushed client pages into Google Overviews within 48 hours
“Within 24 to 48 hours, quite a few of those pages started popping up in the AI overviews on Google. Cause more traffic. Cause more revenue. The revenue wasn't astronomical, like 20, 30%. It was in the single digit percentiles from some of the changes we made, …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tan: People are increasingly treating ChatGPT as a therapist or psychiatrist
“Apparently one of the biggest behavior changes in ChatGPT recently, for instance, is that people sort of treat ChatGPT as a counselor or as a psychiatrist or therapist.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shim: 'Magnificent Seven' companies use thousands of paid Read.ai licenses
“We've got mag sevens using us with thousands of licenses that are paid for where they're aggregating 200 product managers, five customer calls every week per product manager, and they've built this silo or this kind of storage of intelligence of customer inter…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Shim: Vast majority of Read.ai users use multiple conferencing platforms weekly
“So for our users on a weekly basis, we see that they use more than one platform for the vast majority of our users.”