The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 295 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 32 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Tenev: Retail access to private company shares will become standardized
“And I think the same thing is going to happen for private retail access. It's just going to go earlier stage, but the benefits are so strong that I think that there'll be It'll be standardized as time goes on.”
Tangen: Structural issues will probably keep interest rates higher
“I think there are some structural issues which mean that they probably will be A bit higher than they have been.”
Taylor: The craft of software engineering will completely change by 2027
“The actual craft of software engineering that we're doing right now I think it's literally a fact that it'll be completely different two years from now.”
Scilipoti: Vendor-Financed AI Chip Bubble Is Highly Vulnerable to Collapse
“But if this is happening over hundreds of transactions, where it's making investments like this, in its own customers, then what ends up happening if all of a sudden it runs out of the ability to get cash or the customers end up having problems selling service…”
Finkelstein: AI will allow businesses to reach $100M GMV within three years
“I think you're going to have another step function. Like, I think that you will have this incredible hockey stick curve of businesses that grow from zero to a hundred million dollars in GMB inside of three years, instead of, inside of, like, 10 years.”
Hastings: Complete K-12 and university education will be available on phones via AI within a decade
“So in the next 10 years, you'll be able to have a complete K-twelve and probably university education. With AI on a phone or tablet that will be really changed learning.”
Gil: AI Business Models Will Shift to Selling Units of Cognition
“I think in a couple years we'll start thinking about it as we're selling units of cognition, right? We're selling bits of person time or person equivalent to do stuff for us.”
Garry Tan: Competitors offering double cash cannot match Y Combinator's success
“There are clones of YC right now that give like twice as much money, for instance, but I don't think that they're going to see this level of success because they're not going to have As earnest people who become as formidable around you.”
Garry Tan: Sub-15-person startups reaching $100M revenue will be common by 2027
“I think we are seeing companies that in the next year or two will get to 50, a hundred million dollars a year in revenue.
really with under, you know, maybe 10 people, maybe 15 people tops.
and so that was relatively rare, and my prediction would be this bec…”
Tan: Social unrest will occur if AI benefits bypass majority of people
“In reaction to, you know, the nature of work changing that would be the outcome that, you know, the majority of people, if not all people, like, see the benefit in some sort of direct way, and if we don't do that, then there will be unrest.”
Tan: Humans will talk directly to superintelligent AI entities
“Like, we're going to have these, you know, basically super intelligent entities that we talk to.”
Taylor: The craft of software engineering will be completely different by 2027
“And if I look at the actual craft of software engineering that we're doing right now I think it's literally a fact that it'll be completely different two years from now.”
Taylor: AI model market will consolidate into a few massive capex players
“I think we have probably have too many people building models right now. There's already been some consolidation actually of companies being folded into Amazon and Microsoft and others. But I do think it will play out a bit like the cloud infrastructure busine…”
Taylor: ChatGPT will be the primary delivery mechanism for AGI
“Is I do think that, It will be the delivery mechanism for AGI when it's produced, and not just because of the many researchers at OpenAI, but because of the amazing, like, utility it's become from individuals.”
Taylor: AI will shift intellectual power from deep specialists to cross-domain generalists
“I have a completely personal theory that it will benefit deep generalists in a lot of ways, too, because your ability to understand a fair amount in a lot of domains, and leveraging AI knowing where to prompt the AI to go explore and bringing together those do…”
Taylor: Software engineering supply is not close to being solved by AI
“At some point, we will be we will no longer be supply constrained in software, but we're not anywhere close to it right now, and you're taking something that has always been the scarce resource, which is software engineers, and you're making it not scarce, and…”
Taylor: AI agents will rapidly erode legacy seat-based software pricing models
“AI, I think, will change the landscape of software to be tools of productivity that, to agents that actually accomplish tasks, and I think it will Help some companies who, for whom that's a amplifies their existing value proposition and it will really hurt oth…”
Bret Taylor: Personal AI agents will take a while to become robust
“I think it might be a really hard product to build because when you think about all the different services and people you interact with every day, it's kind of everything. So it's not, it has to generalize a lot to be useful to you. And because of the Personal…”
Poilievre: Liberal re-election will drive investment to US and halt pipeline construction
“I think if we go, if the liberals are reelected, you will see a continued outpour of investment to the United States. You will see that we do not build LNG plants, pipelines, or any other self-reliance projects that will break our dependence on America.”
Flatt: US Business Productivity Over Next 20 Years Probably Unprecedented
“But the productivity advances we see over the next 20 years probably will be unprecedented for a period of time. Certainly one, we haven't seen it for a long time, ah, in business, ah, across America.”
Flatt: 401(k)s and Global Retirement Plans Will Open to Alternatives
“For one case in the US are going to open up to alternatives. I think plans around the world will open up to alternatives.”
Wolfe: AI Agents Interacting on Frontends Portend the Death of APIs
“There's another adjacent theme, which I think is also really interesting, which is AI portends the death of APIs. So APIs allow meta with their meta glasses or Ryan to be able to communicate with Uber and, you know, Spotify through the backend, through softwar…”
Wolfe: 30% to 50% of AI inference will occur on-device
“I think that you're going to end up doing a lot of inference on device. Meaning, instead of going, ah, to the cloud and typing a query, like, 30 to 50% of your inference may be on an Apple or an Android device.”
Wolfe: AI Will Cut Software Engineering Hiring by 10% to 30%
“I would suspect that maybe you lose 10 to 30% of the people that you normally would have hired, but the people that are there are still like these 10 X coders, and now they have a machine that's helping them be like 20 to a hundred X.”
Wolfe: AI model developers without proprietary data will struggle
“I think the people that are continuing to develop ever better models, unless they have proprietary data, are going to be sort of screwed.”
Wolfe: Automated 24/7 Machine-Led Scientific Discovery is Inevitable
“So I'm absolutely convinced. Like, high certitude. I don't know exactly which company will do it. We've invested in some. They haven't worked. We'll invest in more. Hopefully they will. But this directional arrow of progress of the idea, by analogy, of machine…”
Wolfe: Everyone will run multiple virtual companies within 20 years
“Like that, in 10 or 20 years, people look back and be like, how did we not see that coming? And look at all the jobs that are being created, because every single person is now creating And has, like, six virtual companies.”
Wolfe: Retail Inflows into Illiquid Private Equity Could Cause a Massive Blow-Up
“There's something here to watch about the flood of retail money that will go into illiquid alts, private equity in particular, and new vehicles that are formed to be able to provide liquidity because of that. And I think that that's both going to be really int…”
Wolfe: Trained AI Avatars of Loved Ones Will Become a Reality
“If there is an AI that is totally trained on my voice, and my likeness, and everything I've ever said, which I have done, that my kids would actually have a dad AI, and maybe they can consult it for questions, or, and is that a good thing, or a bad thing? I do…”
Wolfe: Anduril will be a $30B–$50B public company with software margins
“I deeply believe that Anderil in the next few years will be a 30 to fifty billion dollar publicly traded business doing single-digit mid-billions of revenue with software-like margins that are not like these cost-plus margins, so that is gonna usher in a big w…”
Mackey: Clear grocery health ratings will drive away shoppers or get diluted
“What they would do is they'd dumb it down so that a lot of stuff that you think is red now would all of a sudden be green. And the, It's like, because most of the food that we're selling in supermarkets is not good for people. And if you start telling the trut…”
Halligan predicts inbound traffic will shift from Google to ChatGPT
“I think over the next five years, that's going to change a lot. I think Google's going to have to change a lot, and I think people are going to spend more and more of their time inside ChatGPT, and they're all ChatGPT's competitors.”
Halligan: AI means billion-dollar companies won't need 500-person marketing teams
“I think you're going to see a lot more small, big companies, and you're going to be able to get a lot more done with a lot less people. I don't think in a billion dollar company, you're going to need three, four, 500 person marketing organizations.”
Gaynor: Zero percent interest rates will not return for a long time
“But I think that the environment we've just lived through of essentially zero percent rates, that's just weird. There's no fundamental justification for that. And I think we'll look back on it as a, as just a very unusual episode, but we'll be looking back on …”
Air Force bias favors human pilots over superior combat drones
“It's been true for a long time that humans are the weakest part of a fighter jet. You should use drones. You should totally use drones. But the Air Force, which is composed entirely of pilots or former pilots, hated that idea. Yeah. But drones are here to stay…”
The world will inevitably experience a major bioterrorism event
“So I think we'll see a bioterrorism event someday.”
Lütke: Charging for Shopify's best features would diminish the company over 10 years
“I think Shopify All In, like, over the next 10 years, we would be a very diminished company for not giving our best feature, like, to everyone to make it, like, a fundamental, like You know, like, flag in the ground about, hey, you come to Shopify because we w…”
Shah: Future SaaS companies will offer free software and monetize via fintech
“I believe the future of SaaS companies is going to be that where the next SaaS company will just say, oh, just use our tool for free. But by the way, we'll charge you and cross sell you some lending, some loans, some technology, some value added services which…”
Kunal Shah: Future hiring will reward experiences per year over tenure
“Historically, people were hired for years of experience. I think in future, people will be hired for experiences per year.”
Kunal Shah: Elon Musk will likely create five or six $500B+ companies
“Elon is going to probably have, I don't know, five, five hundred billion dollar plus companies, maybe six.”
Sinclair: Intermittent Fasting Likely Extends Brain Health by a Decade
“And I think what's also likely is that my brain activity and health will be maintained for a decade or more longer by adopting this kind of diet.”
Sinclair: Recommended longevity habits add 14 to 15 years of life
“Just by doing the things that I'm talking about today, you'll get an extra 14, 15 years on average.”
Sinclair: Continuous Biometric Monitoring Will Extend Human Lifespan by a Decade
“Eventually, everyone will have them. We'll know ahead of time if we have cancer, if we have heart disease, if we're going to have a heart attack next week, and stave off those things and prevent them from happening, and that is a revolution, separate from what…”
Sinclair: Global Population Will Cap at 10 Billion Despite Longer Lifespans
“Even with slowing down aging and making us live to a 120, we're not going to overpopulate. We're going to level out at about ten billion people.”
Sinclair: Centenarians running companies will add trillions to the US economy
“That's a massive change that we will see probably in our lifetimes of people being, you know, centenarians and still running companies. That will come back in trillions of dollars in benefits to the economy and just the US economy alone.”
Sinclair: Cellular Reprogramming Could Add One Year of Life Per Year
“If the age reprogramming work that Altos is doing and I'm doing works, you could get an extra year of life every birthday.”
Srinivasan: Woke ideology cannot win in pseudonymous crypto environments
“That army of wokeness, that ideology can win on like, you know, centralized social media platforms, English internet. But once you start going pseudonymous, once you start having cryptocurrency involved, once you start Going international and having people abr…”
Robotic construction will hyper-deflate building costs and assemble prefabs rapidly
“In the not infinitely distant future you will have the ability to just hit enter on a computer and have a bunch of robots snap together a prefab building. With perfect speed in the rain, you know, in eight hours, perfect site, all of that stuff, right? Some of…”