Annie Duke
19 statements across 2 episodes · 2 bullish · 3 bearish · 1 people on the record · first statement Jul 25, 2018 by Annie Duke · said 15 times in 10 episodes since 2019 · across every show →
On the record as a speaker too: Annie Duke's record, appearances and statements → this page counts the times other people say the name.
Mentions by year
brought up most by Shane Parrish (4), Tom Gaynor (3), Marc Andreessen (3), Seth Godin (2), Todd Simkin (1), Les Snead (1), Jason Calacanis (1)
tap a year for its mentions
2026 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
2024 3 mentions in 1 episode
2022 4 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2021 3 mentions in 2 episodes 2 per episode
2020 1 mention in 1 episode
2019 2 mentions in 2 episodes 1 per episode
Everything said about Annie Duke, oldest first
Jul 25, 2018 negative
Jul 25, 2018
Duke: Truth-seeking groups rewire incentives by immediately rewarding mistake admission
“What happens is that when you set up that kind of group agreement and you really live it, the group is actually reinforcing those kinds of behaviors. So, you know, you can think about habit formation, right? It's that you need to have this reward, and the rewa…”
Jul 25, 2018 neutral
Jul 25, 2018
Duke: Disagreements trigger defensiveness when perceived as identity attacks
“When somebody disagrees with us, we can very often feel it as an attack on our identity. And when that happens, I think that disagreeableness ensues. Because when you feel like you're personally being attacked, that the information that is being told to you is…”
Jul 25, 2018
Jul 25, 2018
Jul 25, 2018
Duke: Judging decisions solely by outcomes kills workplace innovation
“So what is, if you're a leader and you're a resulter, which we all kind of are, then what you're doing is you're telling employees, don't ever make an unusual choice. Don't do anything innovative or unexpected because if it fails, I will come down on your head…”
Jul 25, 2018 negative
Duke: IBM lost to Apple due to a culture of outcome bias
“And it's, I've always felt that it's because IBM is operating under a culture of resulting, and Apple isn't. Apple can't possibly be Operating under they're doing something unconventional by definition. Their whole business model is to make unconventional choi…”
Jul 25, 2018 positive
Jul 25, 2018
Duke: Assigning explicit probabilities makes decision-makers more open-minded
“The desire to make the guess makes you very information hungry, so it actually makes you more open-minded, because now your goal is not, like, I have to have the right answer. It's, I want to try to get as close as I possibly can to what the objective probabil…”
Jul 25, 2018
Duke: Memorializing probability estimates prevents resulting when bad outcomes hit
“And you memorialize it. So now, when the thing happens that's right up there on the whiteboard, you took a picture of it. That didn't work out, and it's got that percentage by it, you know? Okay, well, we thought 33% of the time this was gonna happen, it was g…”
Jul 25, 2018 positive
Duke: Basing identity on uncertainty makes disagreement helpful, not threatening
“Your identity now becomes about acknowledging uncertainty, about how good are you at listening to the other side, how good are you at, you know, analyzing those things, and it stops that I, it stops you from having that defensive reaction, and I think naturall…”
Jul 25, 2018
Duke: Spotting decision mistakes is much harder after winning than losing
“Because it's a lot harder to spot your mistakes when you win. Because, boy, that, it's like not basking in the glow of how great you are. That, that takes a lot. That's really hard, right? In some ways, that's the harder thing.”
Jul 25, 2018 neutral
Jul 25, 2018
Duke: Table perceptions of gender altered bluffing effectiveness in professional poker
“Strategies that might work for Eric Seidel might not work for me because I'm a woman and he's a man, and so the perceptions of us were very different at the table. So, for example, his ability to bluff in a situation might be really different than my ability t…”
Oct 25, 2022
Duke: Premortems reward employees for creatively finding failure modes before launch
“When you do a premortem, now you've changed what it means to be a team player, right? Like the people who are going to get pats on the back are the ones who come up with the most creative reasons for failure. And that's going to allow you to now anticipate sor…”
Oct 25, 2022
Duke: Forcing colleagues to argue opposing positions moderates views and improves decisions
“If you have people in the room who really disagree on what the probability of a particular outcome is, which will happen, force them to change sides, and we disagree. You're at 30% and I'm at 70%. Wow, we're way off. First of all, cool. We're probably going to…”
Oct 25, 2022
Duke: Documenting scenario probabilities in advance prevents outcome bias ('resulting')
“You create now, ok, we're going to go with decision A. Here are the scenarios we think might occur. Here are stabs at the probabilities. And you memorialize it. So now, when the thing happens that's right up there on the whiteboard, you took a picture of it. T…”
Oct 25, 2022 negative
Duke: Withholding dissenting perspectives actively violates decision group agreements
“If you withhold information from me, now that's hurting me. You're violating our agreement by not giving me a perspective that disagrees with me. If you have one, you're violating our agreement by not sharing information that you have that might moderate my op…”