Duke: Documenting scenario probabilities in advance prevents outcome bias ('resulting')
Annie Duke · TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions · Oct 25, 2022 · at 55:44
Annie Duke explains how recording probability estimates prior to decision execution insulates teams from outcome bias ('resulting') if bad scenarios occur.
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“You create now, ok, we're going to go with decision A. Here are the scenarios we think might occur. Here are stabs at the probabilities. And you memorialize it. So now, when the thing happens that's right up there on the whiteboard, you took a picture of it. That didn't work out, and it's got that percentage by it, you know? Okay, well, we thought 33% of the time this was gonna happen, it was gonna be bad. It makes it very hard to result. Because you, how do you go back and say our process was really bad? It's like, well, here it was. We kind of knew it was gonna happen.”
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