Duke: Forcing colleagues to argue opposing positions moderates views and improves decisions
Annie Duke · TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions · Oct 25, 2022 · at 52:46
Annie Duke, decision science author and former poker champion, explains collaborative frameworks for resolving disagreements in probabilistic forecasting.
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“If you have people in the room who really disagree on what the probability of a particular outcome is, which will happen, force them to change sides, and we disagree. You're at 30% and I'm at 70%. Wow, we're way off. First of all, cool. We're probably going to learn something through this process. That's actually much more exciting than us agreeing. Shane Parrish: If we all agree. Annie Duke: Right. Now this is really exciting because you and I are pretty well informed. We're on the same team. We're in the same company. We're kind of working with the same information, and yet we really disagree about what the probability is. That's exciting, and that's good for us. Shane Parrish: Somebody has an opportunity to update their view. We might just not know who that person is at this point. Annie Duke: Or we might all update our view because we might all come now to something that's more in between. Shane Parrish: Yeah. Annie Duke: Right. But now make us switch sides. You now have to argue my side that I'm 70%, and I have to argue your side that you're 30%, and the people in the room are going to judge who wins the debate. In other words, not who's right, but who's the better arguer of the other side. Notice that makes me construct the best version of your argument.”
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