Duke: Assigning explicit probabilities makes decision-makers more open-minded
Annie Duke · #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong · Jul 25, 2018 · at 1:09:20
Author and decision strategist Annie Duke discusses probabilistic decision-making frameworks with Shane Parrish.
0:00 / 0:19exact quote · 19.2s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“The desire to make the guess makes you very information hungry, so it actually makes you more open-minded, because now your goal is not, like, I have to have the right answer. It's, I want to try to get as close as I possibly can to what the objective probability is, and I can only do that by getting lots of information or listening to people who have different points of view”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Annie Duke
Duke: Smart people aware of cognitive biases are worse at overcoming them
“In fact, there's a lot of evidence that says that smart people who know about them are actually worse.”
Duke: Forcing colleagues to argue opposing positions moderates views and improves decisions
“If you have people in the room who really disagree on what the probability of a particular outcome is, which will happen, force them to change sides, and we disagree. You're at 30% and I'm at 70%. Wow, we're way off. First of all, cool. We're probably going to…”
Duke: Documenting scenario probabilities in advance prevents outcome bias ('resulting')
“You create now, ok, we're going to go with decision A. Here are the scenarios we think might occur. Here are stabs at the probabilities. And you memorialize it. So now, when the thing happens that's right up there on the whiteboard, you took a picture of it. T…”
Duke: Decision quality and outcomes are loosely linked in poker
“Outcomes and decisions are so loosely linked in that game. I mean, you know, you have the best hand, you get crushed, you have the worst hand, you win sometimes, and there's so much hidden information, the cards are face down”
Duke: Fast, abundant feedback does not prevent people from repeating mistakes
“As I continued to play poker, I noticed this over and over again, that people really persisted in their mistakes, despite the fact that there was very clear feedback That was very quick, and there was a lot of it.”
Duke: IBM lost to Apple due to a culture of outcome bias
“And it's, I've always felt that it's because IBM is operating under a culture of resulting, and Apple isn't. Apple can't possibly be Operating under they're doing something unconventional by definition. Their whole business model is to make unconventional choi…”